Wining FANO sould be Amhara people focused !
Posted: 27 Aug 2023, 15:44
Following to the Preitoria Agreement both Isaias and Amhara exterimists were furious on Abiy and they have been conspiring to kill Abiy and the leaders of TPLF . They have been also planning to attack both the Ethiopian and the TDF army.
During the recent FANO's surprise attack, where civilians were used illegally as a shield for quick win, FANO ate more than it can chew and it could not face the counter attack from Abiy's forces ,even for a single day and it has been retreating quickly.
What is the next move of Isaias ?
Isaias has been historically a strategic thinker and achieving his goals over long years of struggle ( eg his 30 years struggle to free Eriteria and 20 years struggle to remove TPLF from Arat Killo) , however, in this case he knows he does not have time and is still is going to aim for another bloody rebellion ( the blood of Amharas) that will bring "quick win" to once again try to remove Abiy.
Isaias has been serving mainly two masters over the last decades while sabotaging the peace and stability of Ethiopia : Master # 1 has been Egypt and Master #2 is himself . Both masters want to see Ethiopia weak, destabilized and if possible disintegrated. Egypt's goal is to disrupt Ethiopia from finishing the GERD, to force Ethiopia to sign a "Zero Sum water Share Agreement" , not to use it's water resources and under mine Ethiopia so that it will not emerge as a rival geopolitical and economic power in the Horn Africa. For Master #2( Isaias ) his goals are to establish a puppet government( eliminating TPLF is toward that goal ) so that it controls acess to the market and resources of Ethiopia and to emerge as geopolitical and economic power of the Horn Africa, leveraging on his control of Ethiopia. The Arabs also see Ethiopia and the Eastern Africa as their backyard and they support Isaias destabilization activities with the objective of installing Arab friendly government in Ethiopia. In the Post-EPRDF Ethiopia over the last five years, Isaias was given full Acess to the Ethiopia security and economic sectors in the name of boosting the capability of Abiy's security
system and later his support to eliminate TPLF from the face of the earth. The master brain and the owner of the war with TPLF was Isaias, but Abiy was used by Isaias to eliminate TPLF using Ethiopian resources ( both human, military hardware and economic resources) , in Addition Isaias was paid for his own war and was considered " ትልቅ፥ የኢትዮጵያ፥ ባለውለታ" for looting & dismantling Ethiopian heavy military hard ware & commiting genocide in Tigray. Following the Preitoria Agreement Isaias ordered all of his Amhara dominated medias that were blindly supporting Abiy during the Tigray war to work against Abiy and all of them repositioned them selves to comply with Isaias directive. On the ground Isaias worked to train, arm and organize FANO and the result is the recent violent revolt in the Amhara state aiming for quick removal of Abiy . With the recent " quick win " plan aborted , Isaias will try to organize a bigger armed violence and rebellion right at the heart of Addis Ababa in parallel to similar rebellion at the major cities of Amhara. In the mean time the gorilla fighting against the Ethiopian army will contuinue and he will make sure that FANO will not make any peaceful deal with Ethiopia. For Egypt the ongoing instability and pressure on Abiy is very important since it will enable them to force Abiy to sign " a zero - sum water share agreement" that was recently planned to be completed with 4 months. Isaias also plans to reinvade Tigray incase the Tigray government regain its occupied territories in Western Tigray .
As a summary , the key to solve what is going on in Amhara state is not in the hand of Amhara FANO leaders but with Isaias.
The way forward:
(1) In cooperation & coordination with the Eritrean government opposition in diaspora, Western powers , Israel and TPLF , the Isaias regime has to be dethroned immediately.
( 2) Win-win commercial, technical, security agreement with Egypt on the water share agreement and securing it's support Ethiopia's stability and to secure acess to the Red Sea.
( 3) Coordinated military arrangement with TPLF to defend Isaias provocation. But the Tigray force should never enter Amhara territory except defending the territory of Tigray.
( 4) Deploy heavy people centered reorganization and campaign of the Amhara people to win their heart and mind as well us to use them to stand against FANO. The Ethiopian Military has to be people friendly and has to be more disciplined than FANO. All the Amhara major cities and roads have to be under the Ethiopian government.
(4) Attract the center gravity of FANO to Western & Southern Tigray and destroy them . Target also their leaders and their command structure both with drones and target ground operation.
( 5) Organize anti-FANO militia from Amhara forces . Empower Kimants and Agews to defend themselves.
(4) Contuinue political discussion with both FANO and OLA to bring stability and Peace in Ethiopia
(5) Widen the political space so that all competitive parties to have level playing field for the next election.
During the recent FANO's surprise attack, where civilians were used illegally as a shield for quick win, FANO ate more than it can chew and it could not face the counter attack from Abiy's forces ,even for a single day and it has been retreating quickly.
What is the next move of Isaias ?
Isaias has been historically a strategic thinker and achieving his goals over long years of struggle ( eg his 30 years struggle to free Eriteria and 20 years struggle to remove TPLF from Arat Killo) , however, in this case he knows he does not have time and is still is going to aim for another bloody rebellion ( the blood of Amharas) that will bring "quick win" to once again try to remove Abiy.
Isaias has been serving mainly two masters over the last decades while sabotaging the peace and stability of Ethiopia : Master # 1 has been Egypt and Master #2 is himself . Both masters want to see Ethiopia weak, destabilized and if possible disintegrated. Egypt's goal is to disrupt Ethiopia from finishing the GERD, to force Ethiopia to sign a "Zero Sum water Share Agreement" , not to use it's water resources and under mine Ethiopia so that it will not emerge as a rival geopolitical and economic power in the Horn Africa. For Master #2( Isaias ) his goals are to establish a puppet government( eliminating TPLF is toward that goal ) so that it controls acess to the market and resources of Ethiopia and to emerge as geopolitical and economic power of the Horn Africa, leveraging on his control of Ethiopia. The Arabs also see Ethiopia and the Eastern Africa as their backyard and they support Isaias destabilization activities with the objective of installing Arab friendly government in Ethiopia. In the Post-EPRDF Ethiopia over the last five years, Isaias was given full Acess to the Ethiopia security and economic sectors in the name of boosting the capability of Abiy's security
system and later his support to eliminate TPLF from the face of the earth. The master brain and the owner of the war with TPLF was Isaias, but Abiy was used by Isaias to eliminate TPLF using Ethiopian resources ( both human, military hardware and economic resources) , in Addition Isaias was paid for his own war and was considered " ትልቅ፥ የኢትዮጵያ፥ ባለውለታ" for looting & dismantling Ethiopian heavy military hard ware & commiting genocide in Tigray. Following the Preitoria Agreement Isaias ordered all of his Amhara dominated medias that were blindly supporting Abiy during the Tigray war to work against Abiy and all of them repositioned them selves to comply with Isaias directive. On the ground Isaias worked to train, arm and organize FANO and the result is the recent violent revolt in the Amhara state aiming for quick removal of Abiy . With the recent " quick win " plan aborted , Isaias will try to organize a bigger armed violence and rebellion right at the heart of Addis Ababa in parallel to similar rebellion at the major cities of Amhara. In the mean time the gorilla fighting against the Ethiopian army will contuinue and he will make sure that FANO will not make any peaceful deal with Ethiopia. For Egypt the ongoing instability and pressure on Abiy is very important since it will enable them to force Abiy to sign " a zero - sum water share agreement" that was recently planned to be completed with 4 months. Isaias also plans to reinvade Tigray incase the Tigray government regain its occupied territories in Western Tigray .
As a summary , the key to solve what is going on in Amhara state is not in the hand of Amhara FANO leaders but with Isaias.
The way forward:
(1) In cooperation & coordination with the Eritrean government opposition in diaspora, Western powers , Israel and TPLF , the Isaias regime has to be dethroned immediately.
( 2) Win-win commercial, technical, security agreement with Egypt on the water share agreement and securing it's support Ethiopia's stability and to secure acess to the Red Sea.
( 3) Coordinated military arrangement with TPLF to defend Isaias provocation. But the Tigray force should never enter Amhara territory except defending the territory of Tigray.
( 4) Deploy heavy people centered reorganization and campaign of the Amhara people to win their heart and mind as well us to use them to stand against FANO. The Ethiopian Military has to be people friendly and has to be more disciplined than FANO. All the Amhara major cities and roads have to be under the Ethiopian government.
(4) Attract the center gravity of FANO to Western & Southern Tigray and destroy them . Target also their leaders and their command structure both with drones and target ground operation.
( 5) Organize anti-FANO militia from Amhara forces . Empower Kimants and Agews to defend themselves.
(4) Contuinue political discussion with both FANO and OLA to bring stability and Peace in Ethiopia
(5) Widen the political space so that all competitive parties to have level playing field for the next election.
