Mereja.Forum

[info]

After trying to gather more information about Fano's structure and strength, I have concluded that the Ethiopian government may be forced to declare a ceasefire in the Amhara region sooner rather than later.

Fano is not, as I and many first thought, a disorganized local militia operating in a few areas of the Amhara region with no logistics and leadership structure. I have now come to know that a significant number of Amharas including intellectuals, military personnel, merchants, businessmen, farmers, students, the youth, women and many more have joined Fano. This includes many middle and lower-ranking PP officials. They have been voluntarily contributing their money, time and resources for months in coordinating and strengthening Fano. Fano has no shortage of money, food supplies or manpower. It has also been quietly organizing and actively engaging the rural population in the Amhara region. The ill-advised political adventures of the federal and the Oromia regional government such as the attack on the Orthodox church, the massacres in Wollega and the blockage of Amharas from entering Addis Ababa were extensively used to easily get support from the rural population.

One thing all of the Fano members and supporters have in common is that they have this unprecedented determination of the ENOUGH spirit. They have absolutely decided to die or liberate Amhara and Ethiopia from the PP regime. I have never seen such determination in the Amhara region before. They see Abiy and TPLF as an existential threat and have decided never ever to be under the yoke of these groups ever again. They are ready to pay any price to get rid of Abiy and his pp regime. This is also the main reason why not even a single Fano fighter surrendered or could be disarmed since ENDF started the war on Fano some 5 months ago. All of them would rather die fighting than surrender alive. On the contrary, we have seen ENDF many times surrendering and being disarmed. This shows you the level of determination the Abiy regime is facing in the Amhara region. The existential threat and the betrayal felt by the Amhara people at this moment is unprecedented and there is absolutely no way Abiy can win this war.

Other than the determination of the people, other factors such as the mountainous terrain and the huge size of the Amhara region make it very hard for the government even to move logistics and supplies let alone to win the war. Fano is and will continue to easily attack and ambush ENDF convoys destroying ENDF's capabilities in a very short period of time. Amhara region is very huge with the highest concentration of mountains than anywhere in Ethiopia and Africa. This is the heartland of the mountain chains known as the Abyssinian highlands. The more ENDF stays in the Amhara region, the more it loses material and manpower and there is absolutely no way it can sustain such losses in the long run.

Due to the unprecedented determination of the people and the logistical nightmare, coupled with the low morale of the Army and the lack of public support, the government may soon have to declare a ceasefire to save what is left of the ENDF. In fact, I honestly don't think the Abiy government has any other option than declaring a ceasefire and trying to seek dialogue with Fano.

We may soon see the government officially accepting the suggested solution by Gedu Andargachew.

[Noble Amhara]

[Noble Amhara]

[Right]

The aim of Fano is clearly stated and it is about liberating Ethiopia from the PP regime and bring those criminals to justice. In the process allow the formation of a transitional government. Nothing less. Ethiopia will never progress with the current constitution in place.
All Ethiopians including the Oromos support Fano. The two groups that oppose Fano are PP & The TPLF.

[Sam Ebalalehu]

Info, you might have a firsthand information to write such an article. My only source of information about Ethiopian politics is Ethiopian websites. Although not a good source of information, I could piece together and make some sense out of it most of the time. My younger sister, who lives close to the action, who wept in joy when Abiy came to power, do not want to hear the very mention of his name now. I cannot get a word about Ethiopian politics from her.
If what you wrote is close to the truth, I do not see a ceasefire happening. You mentioned not only Fanos but also the whole Amhara do not want to be ruled by Tigrean or Oromo tribalists anymore. If that is true throw the idea of ceasefire out of the window.
I am not doubting the determination of the people of Amhara. That is expected. They cannot keep going on labeled as an enemy for almost half a century.
But to assume such a determined people would be open to ceasefire, and even more believe to trust any negotiation with the Abiy government undercuts your very argument you have tried to make.

[sun]

After trying to gather more information about Fano's structure and strength, I have concluded that the Ethiopian government may be forced to declare a ceasefire in the Amhara region sooner rather than later.

Fano is not, as I and many first thought, a disorganized local militia operating in a few areas of the Amhara region with no logistics and leadership structure. I have now come to know that a significant number of Amharas including intellectuals, military personnel, merchants, businessmen, farmers, students, the youth, women and many more have joined Fano. This includes many middle and lower-ranking PP officials. They have been voluntarily contributing their money, time and resources for months in coordinating and strengthening Fano. Fano has no shortage of money, food supplies or manpower. It has also been quietly organizing and actively engaging the rural population in the Amhara region. The ill-advised political adventures of the federal and the Oromia regional government such as the attack on the Orthodox church, the massacres in Wollega and the blockage of Amharas from entering Addis Ababa were extensively used to easily get support from the rural population.

One thing all of the Fano members and supporters have in common is that they have this unprecedented determination of the ENOUGH spirit. They have absolutely decided to die or liberate Amhara and Ethiopia from the PP regime. I have never seen such determination in the Amhara region before. They see Abiy and TPLF as an existential threat and have decided never ever to be under the yoke of these groups ever again. They are ready to pay any price to get rid of Abiy and his pp regime. This is also the main reason why not even a single Fano fighter surrendered or could be disarmed since ENDF started the war on Fano some 5 months ago. All of them would rather die fighting than surrender alive. On the contrary, we have seen ENDF many times surrendering and being disarmed. This shows you the level of determination the Abiy regime is facing in the Amhara region. The existential threat and the betrayal felt by the Amhara people at this moment is unprecedented and there is absolutely no way Abiy can win this war.

Other than the determination of the people, other factors such as the mountainous terrain and the huge size of the Amhara region make it very hard for the government even to move logistics and supplies let alone to win the war. Fano is and will continue to easily attack and ambush ENDF convoys destroying ENDF's capabilities in a very short period of time. Amhara region is very huge with the highest concentration of mountains than anywhere in Ethiopia and Africa. This is the heartland of the mountain chains known as the Abyssinian highlands. The more ENDF stays in the Amhara region, the more it loses material and manpower and there is absolutely no way it can sustain such losses in the long run.

Due to the unprecedented determination of the people and the logistical nightmare, coupled with the low morale of the Army and the lack of public support, the government may soon have to declare a ceasefire to save what is left of the ENDF. In fact, I honestly don't think the Abiy government has any other option than declaring a ceasefire and trying to seek dialogue with Fano.

We may soon see the government officially accepting the suggested solution by Gedu Andargachew.

Even to begin with the purpose of declaring military operations is to bring about peace which the funny fanno mob violated! According to your wishful self serving fake propaganda though, even the great God and Satan also joined the funny fanno, just for spicing it up and help them to kill each other as well as starve the people by forcing them at gun point to go on strike! People need to flush them out in cooperation with the defense forces so that common people may be able to go back to their peaceful lives and livings with no questions being asked.. Okay? Okay!!

[Tigray People]

The Dirty Eritrean "Info"

The Dirty Eritrean "Tazabi 1"

These garbage dirty inferior Eritreans wannabe analyst have been wrong in all of their writing and predictions.

Where all of our writing and analysis as well as predictions on this site have come to fruition.

There is no cease fire agreement because the coward Amhara fano is fleeing dropping their guns and clothes melting in society.

For God sake the Amhara can't even show the world one video fighting the Ethiopian army, Oromo army,p.o.w or captured weapons.

Kkkkk the Tigray People outmaneuvered and outsmarted the enemies on the battlefield and proteria agreement.

The worst yet to come for Eritrea and Amhara region with wars very soon.

Long Live the Tigray People!

[Sadacha Macca]

Without forming alliances throughout the country, the Fano movement will remain viable only on their turf. They'll be able to free their land, at a heavy cost, but anything beyond that will be very, very, unlikely to occur.
When many of their activists online constantly say they are fighting the Oromo identity itself, ''Oromumma,'' being of their and you guys, favorite term, then you can see why Oromo's are not going to just welcome such a movement into their lands. It'll be seen as an invasion as opposed to liberation.
It'll just lead to millions joining OLA/WBO and making Oromia ungovernable by anyone except for an Oromo govt.
So what happens in the next months, will be crucial. Indeed.

[info]

Your whole existence is to get approval from others for your fantasy claims clearly demonstrating your deep seated inferiority complex that pushed you to totally reject reality and instead to live in a phantasy world created in your head. Go see a doctor first and get help then come back to discuss issues like adults based on facts and reality.

Please also stop your daily attention and approval seeking attempts, always trying hard to convince us tigreans are super humans. Your deep seated inferiority complex is at severe stage. You need help.

The Dirty Eritrean "Info"

The Dirty Eritrean "Tazabi 1"

These garbage dirty inferior Eritreans wannabe analyst have been wrong in all of their writing and predictions.

Where all of our writing and analysis as well as predictions on this site have come to fruition.

There is no cease fire agreement because the coward Amhara fano is fleeing dropping their guns and clothes melting in society.

For God sake the Amhara can't even show the world one video fighting the Ethiopian army, Oromo army,p.o.w or captured weapons.

Kkkkk the Tigray People outmaneuvered and outsmarted the enemies on the battlefield and proteria agreement.

The worst yet to come for Eritrea and Amhara region with wars very soon.

Long Live the Tigray People!

[info]

Sam, my focus is on what the government may do next to try and get out of the mess it got itself into. Whether Fano will accept the ceasefire or not is another issue and I am not able to predict that at this stage. But surely, the government will soon be forced to find an exit from the deep mess it’s in.

Info, you might have a firsthand information to write such an article. My only source of information about Ethiopian politics is Ethiopian websites. Although not a good source of information, I could piece together and make some sense out of it most of the time. My younger sister, who lives close to the action, who wept in joy when Abiy came to power, do not want to hear the very mention of his name now. I cannot get a word about Ethiopian politics from her.
If what you wrote is close to the truth, I do not see a ceasefire happening. You mentioned not only Fanos but also the whole Amhara do not want to be ruled by Tigrean or Oromo tribalists anymore. If that is true throw the idea of ceasefire out of the window.
I am not doubting the determination of the people of Amhara. That is expected. They cannot keep going on labeled as an enemy for almost half a century.
But to assume such a determined people would be open to ceasefire, and even more believe to trust any negotiation with the Abiy government undercuts your very argument you have tried to make.

[info]

No one group can rule Ethiopia anymore. Whether Oromos join OLA or not, the Abiy regime is done in Amhara region and no other group can rule the Amhara region without the consent of Amharas. That’s for sure. And if Fano manages to kick ENDF out of Amhara then there’s no way Abiy can continue to rule Ethiopia. He will be forced to resign. No doubt about that. That’s one of the reasons why Abiy may declare a ceasefire before things get really out of his hand.

Without forming alliances throughout the country, the Fano movement will remain viable only on their turf. They'll be able to free their land, at a heavy cost, but anything beyond that will be very, very, unlikely to occur.
When many of their activists online constantly say they are fighting the Oromo identity itself, ''Oromumma,'' being of their and you guys, favorite term, then you can see why Oromo's are not going to just welcome such a movement into their lands. It'll be seen as an invasion as opposed to liberation.
It'll just lead to millions joining OLA/WBO and making Oromia ungovernable by anyone except for an Oromo govt.
So what happens in the next months, will be crucial. Indeed.

[Sadacha Macca]

No one group can rule Ethiopia anymore. Whether Oromos join OLA or not, the Abiy regime is done in Amhara region and no other group can rule the Amhara region without the consent of Amharas. That’s for sure.

Without forming alliances throughout the country, the Fano movement will remain viable only on their turf. They'll be able to free their land, at a heavy cost, but anything beyond that will be very, very, unlikely to occur.
When many of their activists online constantly say they are fighting the Oromo identity itself, ''Oromumma,'' being of their and you guys, favorite term, then you can see why Oromo's are not going to just welcome such a movement into their lands. It'll be seen as an invasion as opposed to liberation.
It'll just lead to millions joining OLA/WBO and making Oromia ungovernable by anyone except for an Oromo govt.
So what happens in the next months, will be crucial. Indeed.

That's good, as long as they do not, per the words of shaleka dawit, seek to impose their govt on others too, then.
Otherwise, more conflicts and even worse ones, would occur; God forbid.
I and most Oromo, do not care about abiy losing power and privilege in other regions, or even in Oromia itself.
Our concern is us ruling our state, let you rule your state, and we can meet in finfinne/addis and compromise a power sharing arrangement.

[sun]

Without forming alliances throughout the country, the Fano movement will remain viable only on their turf. They'll be able to free their land, at a heavy cost, but anything beyond that will be very, very, unlikely to occur.
When many of their activists online constantly say they are fighting the Oromo identity itself, ''Oromumma,'' being of their and you guys, favorite term, then you can see why Oromo's are not going to just welcome such a movement into their lands. It'll be seen as an invasion as opposed to liberation.
It'll just lead to millions joining OLA/WBO and making Oromia ungovernable by anyone except for an Oromo govt.
So what happens in the next months, will be crucial. Indeed.

In the coming months almost all of the fonno thugs will lay down their useless arms and join the federal military and police forces with some going back to farming Avocados, lentils, mushrooms, flowers,cheek peas,goats, chickens, Sheep, etc. The rest of the ragtag anti Ethiopian petty looter and shooter gangs will be wiped out like the late Ugandan Lord's Resistance Army extremist Christian fascists (LRA) used to be led by Joseph Kony.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord%27s_Resistance_Army

[Zack]

Saddacha why not just dissolve this empire and every one take back their own land. Oromo their own land amhara can have bahirdar gonder and parts of wollo and parts of shewa and oromo can have their oromia kilil with finfine as their capital and the Somalis can have their Somali region and gambeel their own afar their own state problem solved

By the way amhara will never accept oromo rule only if that oromo is behaving as an Amhara. Like Haile sellasie or some one else in that Caliber . Amhara don’t accept oromo to be the identity of Ethiopia they fight that idea that’s why u can’t share a nation because amhara wants to be the forced identity of Ethiopia, where as oromo are the majority of Ethiopia and should be the identity of Ethiopia and the face of Ethiopia indeed.
The best thing though is to part our ways there is no altarnative there is no other way unless oromo accepts amhara rule and allow Amhara to rule
Over oromia once again and I don’t think that can be the solution and this will mean that the only way is for oromo to concede that they are second. To Amhara. And that will be hard to swallow indeed.


Dr Zackovich


Dr Zackovich

[info]

Did you remember how the government tried to disarm Fano for 5 months? And what happened to Berehanu Jula’s claim that most Fanos have returned to their normal lives? Please wake up from your deep sleep. Things are very very different than usual and no amount of wishful thinking will change the hard reality.

And about your claim of laying down of arms, how many Fano fighters laid down their arms after 5 months long war? None, nada, zero. You’re really underestimating the magnitude of the grievances of the Amhara people.

Without forming alliances throughout the country, the Fano movement will remain viable only on their turf. They'll be able to free their land, at a heavy cost, but anything beyond that will be very, very, unlikely to occur.
When many of their activists online constantly say they are fighting the Oromo identity itself, ''Oromumma,'' being of their and you guys, favorite term, then you can see why Oromo's are not going to just welcome such a movement into their lands. It'll be seen as an invasion as opposed to liberation.
It'll just lead to millions joining OLA/WBO and making Oromia ungovernable by anyone except for an Oromo govt.
So what happens in the next months, will be crucial. Indeed.

In the coming months almost all of the fonno thugs will lay down their arms and join the federal military and police forces with some going back to farming Avocados, lentils, mushrooms, flowers,cheek peas,goats, chickens, Sheep, etc. The rest of the ragtag anti Ethiopian gangs will be wiped out like the late Ugandan Lord's Resistance Army extremist Christian fascists (LRA) used to be led by Joseph Kony.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord%27s_Resistance_Army

[sun]

Did you remember how the government tried to disarm Fano for 5 months? And what happened to Berehanu Jula’s claim that most Fanos have returned to their normal lives? Please wake up from your deep sleep. Things are very very different than usual and no amount of wishful thinking will change the hard reality.

And about your claim of laying down of arms, how many Fano fighters laid down their arms after 5 months long war? None, nada, zero. You’re really underestimating the magnitude of the grievances of the Amhara people.

Without forming alliances throughout the country, the Fano movement will remain viable only on their turf. They'll be able to free their land, at a heavy cost, but anything beyond that will be very, very, unlikely to occur.
When many of their activists online constantly say they are fighting the Oromo identity itself, ''Oromumma,'' being of their and you guys, favorite term, then you can see why Oromo's are not going to just welcome such a movement into their lands. It'll be seen as an invasion as opposed to liberation.
It'll just lead to millions joining OLA/WBO and making Oromia ungovernable by anyone except for an Oromo govt.
So what happens in the next months, will be crucial. Indeed.

In the coming months almost all of the fonno thugs will lay down their arms and join the federal military and police forces with some going back to farming Avocados, lentils, mushrooms, flowers,cheek peas,goats, chickens, Sheep, etc. The rest of the ragtag anti Ethiopian gangs will be wiped out like the late Ugandan Lord's Resistance Army extremist Christian fascists (LRA) used to be led by Joseph Kony.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord%27s_Resistance_Army

Leaving alone wishful bombastic make believe empty propaganda, fanno's fate is just like the fate of the late Fascist Ugandan Lords Resistance Army group. It has inflicted painful experiences and terrorism of against the people but in the end it has been annihilated for good with peace and prosperity returning back to the Ugandan people. No government on earth wants or allows another competing and opposite parallel government on its territory.

[Abere]

Great observation! Abiy Ahmed already lost the fight in Amhara region. His ill-trained and morally army has been in Amhara region for 5 months without getting any victory at all. This just alone tells how tough Amhara region has become to him. It is only a matter of when, the flame will engulf 4 kilo. He might declare a unilaterl ceasefire, but it will not save him at all. Because he has a tough project assignment from his bosses. What is he going to do about Welqait and Raya?

[Right]

the government may soon have to declare a ceasefire to save what is left of the ENDF. In fact, I honestly don't think the Abiy government has any other option than declaring a ceasefire and trying to seek dialogue with Fano.

You are so worried for Abiye Ahmed Ali that you seem to beg for a ceasefire strategy to save his skin. It doesn’t really matter 3 million has died and many more will die because of him. It is all about the king.
Man, it is over. What Fano and the rest of Ethiopia looking for is justice for the innocent Gamos, Amaharas and Afars killed because of him.

[info]

You don’t make any sense brother sun. Let me explain why. If Fano was criminal as you said, don’t you think the people of Amhara would fight it tooth and nail? The people would join hands with the local police, militias and ENDF and fight against Fano for their own safety. How can such a criminal entity get such massive support to the point of controlling almost the entire region in few weeks and even now most towns and cities are still under its control.

Let’s stop being emotional and let’s face the facts on the ground. My information is that in all the towns and cities Fano has controlled, there were not a single looting of banks, private or government properties by Fano. Fano doesn’t even allow any looting in towns it controls. This is what the people on the ground are reporting. The only installation that were looted are police stations and military camps in which weapons were stored. In fact, Fano still didn’t allow criminal prisoners to flee from jails in all of the areas it is controlling except for political prisoners and Fano fighters. Trying to portray Fano as a criminal entity doesn’t make sense and doesn’t explain the massive support it’s getting. Let alone to fight it, most policemen and local militias have joined it. Fano still gets it’s daily food supplies from volunteers. How can a criminal entity enjoy such a massive support?

Cool down, stop being emotional and get first hand information. Empty wishful think doesn’t cut it.

nagaatti

Did you remember how the government tried to disarm Fano for 5 months? And what happened to Berehanu Jula’s claim that most Fanos have returned to their normal lives? Please wake up from your deep sleep. Things are very very different than usual and no amount of wishful thinking will change the hard reality.

And about your claim of laying down of arms, how many Fano fighters laid down their arms after 5 months long war? None, nada, zero. You’re really underestimating the magnitude of the grievances of the Amhara people.

Without forming alliances throughout the country, the Fano movement will remain viable only on their turf. They'll be able to free their land, at a heavy cost, but anything beyond that will be very, very, unlikely to occur.
When many of their activists online constantly say they are fighting the Oromo identity itself, ''Oromumma,'' being of their and you guys, favorite term, then you can see why Oromo's are not going to just welcome such a movement into their lands. It'll be seen as an invasion as opposed to liberation.
It'll just lead to millions joining OLA/WBO and making Oromia ungovernable by anyone except for an Oromo govt.
So what happens in the next months, will be crucial. Indeed.

In the coming months almost all of the fonno thugs will lay down their arms and join the federal military and police forces with some going back to farming Avocados, lentils, mushrooms, flowers,cheek peas,goats, chickens, Sheep, etc. The rest of the ragtag anti Ethiopian gangs will be wiped out like the late Ugandan Lord's Resistance Army extremist Christian fascists (LRA) used to be led by Joseph Kony.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord%27s_Resistance_Army

Leaving alone wishful bombastic make believe empty propaganda, fanno's fate is just like the fate of the late Fascist Ugandan Lords Resistance Army group. It has inflicted painful experiences and terrorism of against the people but in the end it has been annihilated for good with peace and prosperity returning back to the Ugandan people. No government on earth wants or allows another competing and opposite parallel government on its territory.

[info]

Where do you see my worries? I’m just trying to guess what the government would do next to try and get out of the mess it’s in right now. I’m not saying it’s attempts will be successful or that Fano will agree to the offer of the ceasefire. I’m just guessing the next move by the government as the current state is unsustainable.

the government may soon have to declare a ceasefire to save what is left of the ENDF. In fact, I honestly don't think the Abiy government has any other option than declaring a ceasefire and trying to seek dialogue with Fano.

You are so worried for Abiye Ahmed Ali that you seem to beg for a ceasefire strategy to save his skin. It doesn’t really matter 3 million has died and many more will die because of him. It is all about the king.
Man, it is over. What Fano and the rest of Ethiopia looking for is justice for the innocent Gamos, Amaharas and Afars killed because of him.