The tactical alliance ኦሮማራ was established due to TPLF's strategic failure!
Posted: 20 Feb 2023, 09:51
Starting from 1991, TPLF / EPRDF was leading Ethiopia with the tacit alliance with OLF and letter with Abadula led OPDM.However, TPLF failed to nurture this strategic relationship , specially by choosing Hailemariam Desalnge , from minority ethinic group to replace PM Meles Zenawi. If TPLF had chossen an Oromo to replace PM Meles, all the riots in Oromia may have not happened or could have been easily controlled . It looks PM Meles chose Hailemariam to use him as a front man for him to contuinue hold the executive power behind the curtain. Another strategic error that TPLF made was to allow the wounded Isaias to survive against enough historical evidence that Isaias is a survivor and too dangerous to allow him to live aside, in no peace- no war environment and under sanction. Therefore , in addition to the aborted democratization process that was initiated in 1991, increase in the intensity of corruption and disproportionate distribution of income , TPLF's downfall was caused by :
(1) It's failure to timely strengthen the Tigray- Oromia alliance , through genuine power sharing and addressing incrementally the legitimate strategic aspirations of the Oromo people.
(2) Allowing Isaias to survive
The Future:
- To tilt the power balance among the various players , alliance is required in the politics of Ethiopia.
- With the obvious prevailing rift between Oromos and Amharas ,. It is difficult even for Oromia to stabilize Ethiopia alone.
- Both Tigray and Oromia need to each other as they have non- conflicting visions and goals in building the Ethiopia of the future.
- A strategic alliance between Tigray & Oromia as a core and others including Amhara on the periphery based on mutual respect , could save Ethiopia from further blood shed and propel it to greatness..
- Further democratization, building corruption intolerant civil service will also sustain Ethiopia's stability
- Of course Isaias has to go and be replaced by Ethiopia/Tigray friendly democratic government. Furthermore the " Abiy Bring Back Our Acess to Red Sea!, has to be implemented.
(1) It's failure to timely strengthen the Tigray- Oromia alliance , through genuine power sharing and addressing incrementally the legitimate strategic aspirations of the Oromo people.
(2) Allowing Isaias to survive
The Future:
- To tilt the power balance among the various players , alliance is required in the politics of Ethiopia.
- With the obvious prevailing rift between Oromos and Amharas ,. It is difficult even for Oromia to stabilize Ethiopia alone.
- Both Tigray and Oromia need to each other as they have non- conflicting visions and goals in building the Ethiopia of the future.
- A strategic alliance between Tigray & Oromia as a core and others including Amhara on the periphery based on mutual respect , could save Ethiopia from further blood shed and propel it to greatness..
- Further democratization, building corruption intolerant civil service will also sustain Ethiopia's stability
- Of course Isaias has to go and be replaced by Ethiopia/Tigray friendly democratic government. Furthermore the " Abiy Bring Back Our Acess to Red Sea!, has to be implemented.