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What’s Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s next move after a dubious truce?

The Eritrean leader regards himself as a directing force in the Horn of Africa

Written by
Bertelsmann Stiftung
Posted 2 January 2023 19:02 GMT


Two years of fighting in Ethiopia is estimated to have resulted in the deaths of between 383,000 and 600,000 civilians and between 250,000 and 600,000 troops. A process of disengagement is currently underway but is far from complete. Nor is it clear that the ceasefire will hold since Eritrean troops continue to loot Tigrayan homes and businesses while killing local residents.

This war, unlike many in Africa, does not have its roots in religion or ethnicity. It was the product of tensions, which can be traced back to the nineteenth century and the imperial expansion known as the “scramble for Africa.” The Ethiopian emperor, Menelik II (who ruled from 1889 to 1913) joined European nations in vastly expanding his territory. Ethiopia was transformed from a mainly Christian kingdom into an empire encapsulating more than 80 ethnic groups, many of whom were Muslim.

This produced tensions between the center and the periphery and these consequences are still being played out. Since then, Ethiopia has been plagued by conflicts over whether power should lie with the central government, or with the regions and ethnic groups.

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What next for Eritrea?

Assuming that the war is now over – and this cannot be taken for granted – what plans does Eritrea’s leader, President Isaias Afwerki have up his sleeve?


Continue reading https://globalvoices.org/2023/01/02/wha ... ous-truce/

SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: RECENT BOMBINGS BLAMED ON OROMOS
POSSIBLY THE WORK OF TPLF (GOE)

Classified By: CHARGE VICKI HUDDLESTON FOR REASONS 1.4(b)AND(d).

¶1. (S) SUMMARY A series of explosions were reported in Addis
Ababa on September 16, killing three individuals. The GoE
announced that the bombs went off while being assembled, and
that the three dead were terrorists from the outlawed Oromo
Liberation Front (OLF) with links to the Oromo National
Congress (ONC). An embassy source, as well as clandestine
reporting, suggests that the bombing may have in fact been
the work of GoE security forces. END SUMMARY

¶2. (U) On September 16, three bomb explosions were reported
in the Kara Kore area of Addis Ababa. The explosions were
heard at 4:45 a.m., 7:00 a.m., and 10:00 a.m. The National
Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), together with the
Federal Police Anti-terror Task Force later reported that the
bombs were “part of a coordinated terror attack by the OLF
and Sha’abiya (Eritrea) aimed at disrupting democratic
development.” The NISS said that the intended terror plot
had failed and the bombs had mistakenly gone off while the
suspects were preparing them while hiding out at an illegally
built house. Two of the suspects died immediately, while
another died on the way to the hospital. One other is in
critical condition. The police task force reported having
others in custody related to the plot and that evidence shows
the terrorists had ties to Oromo groups – the Mecha and
Tulema Association (MTA) and the ONC. They also said that
the bombs used contained parts sourced from Eritrea and were
consistent with bombs used in previous terrorist attacks.

¶3. (S) On September 20, Dr. Merera Gudina (strictly protect),
the former leader of the ONC (and a typically reliable
information source), contacted Post to report that the
deceased had not died not while constructing a bomb, but
rather at the hands of GoE cadres. Dr. Merera said that the
men had been picked up by police a week prior, kept in
detention and tortured. He said police then left the men in
a house and detonated explosives nearby, killing 3 of them.
He did not indicate whether the men were ONC or OLF
affiliated.

¶4. (S) Clandestine reporting indicates that the bombs did not
explode inside the structure, but rather appear to have been
placed outside and detonated.
[Ambassador Vicki] HUDDLESTON