Mereja.Forum

[info]

Many Tigreans rightly feel betrayed by the TPLF leadership and are mostly very confused about the "peace agreement" especially that now the true details are officially confirmed. They feel they were lied to all these months and years by the TPLF about almost everything. This is very understandable.

Furthermore, most of them think the agreed document is not fair and absolutely in favor of the government, completely ignoring the concerns of Tigreans and all that what TPLF preached was fighting for.

Understanding what the "peace agreement" really is

In my view, to understand what has really happened in South Africa, we must understand what the "peace agreement" document really is. It is NOT a negotiation document where two parties make compromises to reach an agreement in the middle. That is where many people get confused because the document has no sign of any compromise other than the government dictating and getting everything and the TPLF completely losing every demand it said it was fighting for. This is not a compromise but rather a diktat/order!

In reality, the document is a capitulation document where terms of surrender is listed. That is it! The document is NOT a fair agreement between two waring parties who are trying to find the middle ground to find a compromise. NO! That is not! The document is between a winner who is about to completely destroy the loser except his all demands are met and a loser who is trying to save his live. This is a document signed at gun point. The loser has no options but to agree to all of the demands of the winner just to save his life. This is the so called peace agreement document in real terms.

Once we understand what the document is then we don't expect a fair and balanced compromise in it. We also understand that the TPLF leadership has indeed completely surrendered by not only agreeing to disarm TDF but also to hand over Tigray and the Tigray government to federal government so the federal government can install a transitional government and run Tigray from now on. Debretsion is no more Tigray president.

Possible end of TPLF as a viable political entity as we know it

But how can TPLF leadership hand over TDF, Tigray and its administration to the federal government and even think it can have a political future in Tigray? How can the leadership ever again face Tigreans and have any moral value to lead them after signing a complete surrender? In my view, the top TPLF leadership is NO MORE in Tigray. They have already left the country and do not intend to play any role in Tigray's political future. They seem to gave up everything and decided to live their private lives abroad. I would be very much surprised if the top TPLF leaders were still in Tigray. That would be for me the biggest surprise.

And then but why did the TPLF leadership decided to completely surrender? We really don't know the details but we can suspect that it has mostly to do with the battle field. As both Gen. Tadesse Werede and Gen. Tsadkan already hinted, TDF leaders must have informed them that there is absolutely no way TDF can win this war other than being completely overran and destroyed. The TPLF leaders (and I suspect also the TDF leaders too) must have decided that it makes no sense to continue fighting until one man standing knowing you have zero chance to win, instead they wanted to make the best out of it and at least save the lives of TPLF and TDF leadership. That is exactly what they did and that is the only thing they got for agreeing to a total surrender.

I think that is the story and Tigreans may soon find out that there is no Debretion and other top TPLF leaders in Tigray when in few days ENDF enters Mekele. From now on the fate of Tigray is in the hands and mercy of the federal government. The mother TPLF has left its child Tigray, making her an orphan and leaving her to "የእንጀራ እናት/Stepmother". TPLF as a political entity may end here and may never come back in Ethiopia at least in the form we used to know it. The political space in Tigray from now on may be dominated by the current opposition parties, Tigray PP and other parties that may newly emerge but without TPLF playing a major role, that is if it survives as a party at all. It may take years for what remains from the TPLF to resurrect to the political scene and make a come back, and even that will most likely be in a different form and shape than we know TPLF today.

RIP TPLF

[Asmara]

Thank you info for the post.

I hope Eden has understood this analysis and stops asking if the TPLF army will be reintegrated (assimilated) into ENDF.
No TPLF army will be demobilised and start their civilian life.

Will TPLF political and military leaders stay in Tigray?
Time will tell. ምቕናይ ጥራይ።

[eritrea]

Your analyzes are completely consistent with what is going on in the diplomatic and propaganda warfare after the peace agreement.

Just the lack of any statement from the TPLF leaders says a lot and the reason points to what you have come up with in your conclusions.

Next to leave Tigray is of course Wedi-werede.

Good news that should be celebrated by all and especially by the Tigrayans. Lies and deception are Satan's sword. And these have been TPLF's most powerful arsenal throughout its existence. That this ends means, a new, fresh and better door is opening for everyone's well-being. Tigrayans will be welcomed into the brotherhood of truth, peace, progress and development.

[Sam Ebalalehu]

Info, your analysis is right on the mark. The agreement signed was the declaration of the TPLF death. I do not think a single TPLF top politician wants to continue living politics anymore. To engage in politics in which they are equal with others is not in the card. Like Orwell's animal farm EPDRF had been " All ANIMALS ARE EQUAL, BUT SOME ANIMALS ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS." However, I totally disagree with your characterization of TPLF as a mother of Tigray, and the Ethiopian government as a stepmother. A mother would not send her kids to death while she knows they die for practically nothing. As for the stepmother, I am confident she will earn the trust of the majority of Tigreans sooner than you think.

[info]

Unlike many, it seems tigrean activist Tewodros some how seem to understand what the document is really about. He clearly understands that this is a document of capitulation and surrender.

ይህ "ፈጣን የሆነ እጅ የመስጠት እንጂ የሰላም ስምምነት አይደለም። ይህንን የተቀበለ ሃይል መሸነፉን ያመነና ባሸናፊው ሃይል እርምጃ እንዳይወሰደብት የጠየቀ ብቻ ነው"