Mereja.Forum

Although mediations and negotiations are dictated by the reality on the ground, when it comes to TPLF, treaties and agreements are not their crafts. Look at Algiers Agreement which was signed by the relative winner Ethiopia under the terms of the relative loser Eritrea. So why fight if you knew you didn’t have much option in peacemaking?

Now putting aside all the posturing and fishing for what looks good to this or the other side, Tsadkan is right to have said that TPLF doesn’t know how to make an agreement. Look at it - the central question is how an average Tigrian would take the agreement at face value and how does it trust TPLF/Tigrian elite in the future. Will Tigrians trust TPLF next time when they call “kitet”? You can dig nuances from the agreement and might cast it to your favor but will TPLF ever be taken by Tigrians as a credible and trustworth representative calling you to die for it? Why all the mayhem and all this suffering and destruction? Just for this?

Or we might have underestimated Abiy (oops Meshrefet) and his strategy all along, especially with this last round of military incursions that must have sapped the life out of TPLF. In that case TPLF must have been begging for the talks to surrender, in which case they should be commendable for being realistic.

Allowing the federal government to have unfettered (to use Dr Tedros’s word) access to Tigray is having the doctor do colonoscopy every week and that by itself seals all other avenues or scenarios. Also know that TPLF must have understood the world is not ready or conducive for guerrilla warfare anymore given access, technology, communication….

Also the most important thing of all - what we don’t/will never know.

- What did Sibhat/others contribute for this?
- How much did US pledge for all sides and for all individual actors privately?
- How about how much of the money (close to 800 million) of Tsadkan’s beer factory sell proceeds would be freed by Abiy?
- How much of EFFORT’s money would be released for TPLF bigwigs to feel they’re “winners?”
- What other back door deal have been made to lubricate the wheels of peace and negotiations?

Winners- Tigrians and Ethiopians have won fair and square. The elites would survive - don’t worry much about them.

This is a happy day for Tigrians and Ethiopians as one more day of not getting food, medicine and basic necessities is the death of thousands, the stunting of countless kids, mortality of mothers, the depression of sleeping hungry while your money is frozen in the banks. Forget the nonsense of philosophizing from afar while eating your tirr sigga with awaze made from Black label. The real cost is with the kids suffering down there.

And Ethiopians don’t deserve this. Cost of sending their kids to war and the economy being devastated and carrying the cost with inflation and destitution should stop. What for?

We saw that the elected in Arat Kilo or those from Qola Tembien “lerasachew ayansum”!

Other points to consider:

(1) Population Happy about ENDF - TPLF understood that Tigrians are switching to government side abandoning TPLF. What discouraged TPLF bigwigs is the degree to which the fighters were clamoring to run to areas controlled by ENDF/EDF and how people felt relieved that ENDF was coming to town. This is a prognosis for a situation not conducive to guerrilla warfare.


(2) Tsadkan & Getachew are not too Tigrians -The rumors swirling around is TPLF veterans are complaining that half/full Amhara Tigrians or Abiy/US agent Tigrians from controversial dual Tigraian-Amhara identity of Raya and Alamata have sold TPLF to Abiy. US insisted that Tigraians from Alamata-Raya be picked as negotiators because they didn’t want the issue of referendum or independence to be a consideration let alone an agenda

(3) You snooze you lose - once you signed, the onus is on you - Take what you like but the appearance for negotiation and much more the agreement canceled the #TigrayGenocide slogan & the momentum the struggle painstakingly built for 2+ years. Reverting to war will definitely make TDF/TPLF (whatever their name now) to be condemned by all and lose any support. When you sit down and actually shook hands with the genocidaire, who would trust you again if you cry wolf.

(4) TPLF silent to help deal sink-in heads of diehards - TPLF has no choice but to go it alone. Talking too much about agreement is going to make things worse so went direct into implementation phase because no amount of verbal acrobatics or algorithm of language is going to cut it. Surrender by any other name is still surrender. And that is not a bad one considering what they saved in terms of the elite’s interest to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness and WEALTH. Can you imagine how much US promised in reconstruction and who from TPLF would help run a portion of it? Whose buildings and money would be released in Addis Ababa? Politicians are like any of us.

Bill Maher was talking about Americans dying in Iraq and Afghanistan and they were dying for Americans- decadent, consumerist, p0rn-addicted, obese… and God asked them, you dying “For these people?!”