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President Isaias on Debretsion, the child-killer.
Posted: 26 Oct 2022, 15:52
by Zmeselo
Similarly, in 1997 Pres. Isaias sent a letter to the then tplf leader to ask why the latter's gov't was resorting to armed conflict to deal with border issues, while there were peaceful options?
Alas!
Re: President Isaias on Debretsion, the child-killer.
Posted: 26 Oct 2022, 18:15
by Zmeselo
Thread by Addis_Qnie, MD: @Qnie_Addis
#FatefulTriangle
Militarily, TPLF looks finished- at least as a conventional fighting force & at least, for the time being. Its ranks decimated, its fighters demoralized and its popular support at an all time low.
In reality, TPLF has nothing in its hands to bargain with; other than the threat of future insurgency. At this point in time, the only bargaining chip it has is the support of the USG.
The US is in the talks not only to 'observe' but also 'participate', as per @StateDeptSpox Ned Price.
The US, is the third negotiating party. The fact that the TPLF delegation flew out on a US army plane along with
@MikeHammerUSA, is very telling. It's also telling, that the preconditions put forth by TPLF are carbon-copy of the one outlined by State Dept. It's, Team TPLF/USA.
The US is at the table for the sole purpose of keeping TPLF alive; convinced that the only power that can keep the HoA divided & subservient to the interest of the West is TPLF and they are threatening GoE with sanctions & financial embargo on behalf of #TPLFinc.
Normalization of relationship, financial support through WBG & IMF and possibly even the return of AGOA would be touted as potential rewards.
In the SA negotiations, the red lines for team Ethiopia are most probably claims over Welkait and Raya and disarmament of TPLF. These should be NONNEGOTIABLE!
For team TPLF/USG, the concessions they want so desperately are assurances for the continuation of TPLF as a political entity to be used as a continuous leverage by the US in HoA.
However, the continued gains by ENDF are keeping the Team TPLF/USG bargaining powers less compelling & shifting the discussion towards terms of surrender and the fate of TPLF leaders. Hence, their insistence on 'immediate cessation of hostilities.'
The US is hoping that the GoE would make significant concessions out of fear of being punished economically, through WBG and IMF. The bills that would make these possible, are still sitting menacingly in both houses of Congress.
The question the GoE is probably grappling with at this moment is whether the US will go to that length, once TPLF is 6 feet under.
Allowing TPLF to continue as an entity, would most probably mean keeping a potentially very destabilizing force alive that could at any moment launch another insurgency or keep working with historical and geopolitical foes of Ethiopia.
The TPLF, will wait quietly in the background for their opportunity. And the opportunities will come, or will be manufactured by the likes of USG or Egypt. It's a matter of time.
The alternative, is equally daunting. The economy is already very strained, by the financial warfare being waged against Ethiopia by the US and EU.
However, if the TPLF are not viable anymore, to what end would these Western powers wield their influence? Retaliation? As 'cautionary tale' for others, who dare to defy the West? Or will they at last come to their senses and accept a #NewEthiopia, without the scourge of TPLF?
No one, has all the answers. What we know, is that a very high stake game of poker or Russian roulette is unfolding in SA.
One thing is crystal clear, though. This was a US-EU war as much as it was an Ethiopian one; albeit, one paid in full with Ethiopian blood.
SAD!
Re: President Isaias on Debretsion, the child-killer.
Posted: 26 Oct 2022, 18:58
by Zmeselo
- The State Department: the TPLF (a terrorist group) to have a role in the future. Ethiopia: TPLF is done
- SD: Wants secession of hostilities. Ethiopia: TPLF has no control. The subject is mute
- SD: Demands unfettered- access. Ethiopia: Send all the aid you can.
- SD: Eritrea must vacate. Ethiopia: that's a non issue. Eritrea is not in Ethiopia.
What is left? Threats, sanctions & IMF money.
The SD has no leverage!
Ethiopia, has all the leverage!
What is clear, is that this is no longer TPLF’s agenda.
Amanuel Biedemariam: @Amanbiede
Re: President Isaias on Debretsion, the child-killer.
Posted: 26 Oct 2022, 19:03
by Zmeselo
Re: President Isaias on Debretsion, the child-killer.
Posted: 26 Oct 2022, 22:12
by quindibu
Zmeselo wrote: ↑26 Oct 2022, 18:58
- The State Department: the TPLF (a terrorist group) to have a role in the future. Ethiopia: TPLF is done
- SD: Wants secession of hostilities. Ethiopia: TPLF has no control. The subject is mute
- SD: Demands unfettered- access. Ethiopia: Send all the aid you can.
- SD: Eritrea must vacate. Ethiopia: that's a non issue. Eritrea is not in Ethiopia.
What is left? Threats, sanctions & IMF money.
The SD has no leverage!
Ethiopia, has all the leverage!
What is clear, is that this is no longer TPLF’s agenda.
Amanuel Biedemariam: @Amanbiede
Like they say, desperate time calls for desperate measures.
Under their master's shield, the false narrative of 'ተራራውን ያንቀጠቀጠው ትውልድ' had found some purchasers, be it in Ethiopia or around the western world. That carefully-crafted 'invincible TPLF' fairytale has been deliberately amplified by conflict enterpeneurs and hired propagandists for their own political and personal gains for almost thirty years up to now........ Despite all that protection and support though, the Adwa imbeciles couldn't deliver on the ground what they had promised, with their usual hollow bravado and deluded self-importance, to their bosses. So the unhappy boss can't trust these village idiots to perform any differently on the 'negotiating' table either? After all, with what bargaining power? So here we're...
The one thing that comes out of this is though, their masters have eventually dropped all the pretensions of 'our hearts have been bled for Tigrians suffering' into the garbage bin and has also decided to take off all that platitude under 'human rights' cloak, and have chosen to come out in the open and tacitly declare in public who the real owner of this 'conflict' is.......They must have assumed that the 'jungle world' was slow to decipher their action for the last 30 years in that region. So there would be no ambiguity that the 'negotiation' is between the Ethiopian government and the western world, particularly the US- the two parties in a tussle for the control of Ethiopia!
Re: President Isaias on Debretsion, the child-killer.
Posted: 27 Oct 2022, 02:02
by Zmeselo
_____
What can this mean? Hmmm... Exile for junta leaders?
Re: President Isaias on Debretsion, the child-killer.
Posted: 27 Oct 2022, 02:37
by Zmeselo