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Abe Abraham
- Senior Member
- Posts: 14414
- Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00
ኣሁንሳ ፒፒ ፋኖን ጥሎ ከመቀሌ ከፈረጠጠ ምን ይደረጋል ? ባለፈው ግዜ ብዙ ሰው ጠፋ።
ኣሁንሳ ፒፒ ፋኖን ጥሎ ከመቀሌ ከፈረጠጠ ምን ይደረጋል ? ባለፈው ግዜ ብዙ ሰው ጠፋ።
Re: ኣሁንሳ ፒፒ ፋኖን ጥሎ ከመቀሌ ከፈረጠጠ ምን ይደረጋል ? ባለፈው ግዜ ብዙ ሰው ጠፋ።
Abiy Ahmed may decide to order ENDF to withdraw again.
one can not rule out the possibility.
the guy is paranoid leaving Amharas without TPLF being active in tigray.
But this time he has to deal with the consequences of less tolerance from the military and the public at large.
one can not rule out the possibility.
the guy is paranoid leaving Amharas without TPLF being active in tigray.
But this time he has to deal with the consequences of less tolerance from the military and the public at large.
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Union
Re: ኣሁንሳ ፒፒ ፋኖን ጥሎ ከመቀሌ ከፈረጠጠ ምን ይደረጋል ? ባለፈው ግዜ ብዙ ሰው ጠፋ።
Exactly, he will NEVER want tplf inactive unless he has an alternative force that can make Amara region unstable which is not very possible in the near future. Remember, he wanted this round of war because he did not like the AmaraTigray talk that was starting to happen among some Amara and Tigray groups. Secondly, he failed in disarming Fano and lost the war with Fano in Gojam and Shewa. So he wanted the war to make up for both his loses.
So he wanted to stop the possible Amara tigray/tplf talk and he wants to make up for his political lose due to the war with Fano. Did he achieve it? No. He instead got himself in more densed problems:
1. Tplf is defeated and broken for good. Its hopes of defeating Amara is over and its Tigray supporters are disoriented and hopeless that they don't have the drive to fight anymore, which is not what olf Abiy wants. He wants them to be real threats to Amara but tigreans are now awake to the reality and are not willing to send their kids to the war anymore to support abiy's/tplf instrumented war making Tplf even weaker and baseless, and making the Amara forces even stronger to fight off olf and even to remove it as he will be pushing to suppress them.
2. With tplf defeated Fano is more armed and organized.
3. Since he does not want the tplf leaders to be removed his negotiations with them and his desire not to remove them will be exposed soon which will make his real intentions known to the public. The support for Fano from other Ethiopians will increase even more.
4. The west now hate him more for deciding to fight with tplf but he did it to save himself not to help Amara or offend the west, whatever his reason is they hate him now for marching toward mekele and for letting Amara liberate Raya. Even more problem for them.
Basically, non of what is going on is working for his favour.
So he wanted to stop the possible Amara tigray/tplf talk and he wants to make up for his political lose due to the war with Fano. Did he achieve it? No. He instead got himself in more densed problems:
1. Tplf is defeated and broken for good. Its hopes of defeating Amara is over and its Tigray supporters are disoriented and hopeless that they don't have the drive to fight anymore, which is not what olf Abiy wants. He wants them to be real threats to Amara but tigreans are now awake to the reality and are not willing to send their kids to the war anymore to support abiy's/tplf instrumented war making Tplf even weaker and baseless, and making the Amara forces even stronger to fight off olf and even to remove it as he will be pushing to suppress them.
2. With tplf defeated Fano is more armed and organized.
3. Since he does not want the tplf leaders to be removed his negotiations with them and his desire not to remove them will be exposed soon which will make his real intentions known to the public. The support for Fano from other Ethiopians will increase even more.
4. The west now hate him more for deciding to fight with tplf but he did it to save himself not to help Amara or offend the west, whatever his reason is they hate him now for marching toward mekele and for letting Amara liberate Raya. Even more problem for them.
Basically, non of what is going on is working for his favour.
Tiago wrote: ↑26 Oct 2022, 02:15Abiy Ahmed may decide to order ENDF to withdraw again.
one can not rule out the possibility.
the guy is paranoid leaving Amharas without TPLF being active in tigray.
But this time he has to deal with the consequences of less tolerance from the military and the public at large.
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Abe Abraham
- Senior Member
- Posts: 14414
- Joined: 05 Jun 2013, 13:00