Mereja.Forum

Both TPLF and government sources are telling us that the federal government is preparing a provisional administration for Tigray. This is puzzling for many of us including myself, as even though now almost all fighting is currently underway inside Tigray with few exceptions, still the territorial gains of ENDF/EDF in Tigray doesn't seem big and it doesn't also look like ENDF is about to storm mekele soon. But for some reason, the federal government has started preparing for the takeover and rebuilding of Tigray. Both TPLF and government sources are telling us that plans for rebuilding infrastructure are being prepared, teams are being set up etc.

Is the sun really setting on TPLF as we know it? After hearing the two TDF generals, Tadesse and Tsadkan, it is clear for any careful observer that the days of TDF as a functioning army are numbered. Without logistics and supplies such as weapons and ammunition, no army can function forever. But from the talk general Tsadkan gave, it seems TDF may be preparing to transfer itself into a guerilla force. It seems, TDF as a functioning army may be coming to an end though, at least for now.

The silence of the US in not pushing for an immediate ceasefire is also deafening. TPLF has been requesting a ceasefire for almost a month now but all the international actors including the AU and the US seem to ignore this call except releasing a welcome statement once. The so called negotiation is not taking TPLF concerns seriously either, in fact the whole negotiation talk seem fishy and not serious. It indeed reminds us of the last days of Derg, in which the international community only played a "negotiation game" while firmly expecting one of the factions to win the war soon. For some reason both the Ethiopian government and the IC seem to expect this to happen soon.

It is hard to predict what will the future hold and it is foolishness to write off TPLF altogether. The option of TDF becoming a guerilla force is real. May be the negotiation or may I say the back door diplomacy is trying to avoid this scenario. In my view, working with moderate forces inside the TPLF is a must if the federal government wants to achieve its goal in Tigray. I think TPLF will still exist even if in a modified form. The current extreme, militaristic, warmonger TPLF is surely not sustainable.

By and large I agree with what you wrote. But your sentence that reads " it seems TDF may be preparing to transfer itself into a guerilla force" is wrong. I know there is the qualifier " may be," but still it is very unlikely. Time has changed. For one in today's world guerilla warfare is practically meaningless. They take you out while drinking their coffee just by pushing a [deleted]. Second, in today's world the young has more opportunity to inform itself. It is not possible ከበሮ በመደለቅ ወጣቱን ማነሳሳት።
If ENDF manages to take out five or six of the TPLF leaders, we will close this chapter of Ethiopian history and move on.

According to this tweet from today by Ethiopia's Minister of Peace, the so called negotiation and peace process has one aim, i.e. to disarm TPLF.

info wrote: ↑

07 Oct 2022, 16:00

According to this tweet from today by Ethiopia's Minister of Peace, the so called negotiation and peace process has one aim, i.e. to disarm TPLF.

አሁንስ እንደምመስለኝ አሜርካ ራሷ ክሁሃላ ቅጥ ቅጣቸዉን በሏአቸዉ ከፊት ደግሞ እንደራደር በሏቸዉ በምለዉ የተስማሙ ይመስላሉ።

The key here was the phrase "without any precondition", which woyane is dying for already for over a month by now.

Starting from today, Ethiopian government is warning foreign entities not to use phrases like "Tigray government" or similar terms in relation to TPLF. This could also be an indication that a "legitimate Tigray government" is in the making and that the federal government is serious about establishing a takeover government in Tigray.

It's not about territorial gain, it's about suffocating tplf and getting to surrender. Terrorist tplf is cornered and time is not on its side. The government could sit and wait indefinitely no problem. Terrorist tplf on the other hand has to war/fight to silence internal dissatisfaction and fragmentation. Tigrayans will sober up and start asking questions. Tplf has no answer.

Weyane.is.dead wrote: ↑

07 Oct 2022, 16:21

It's not about territorial gain, it's about suffocating tplf and getting to surrender. Terrorist tplf is cornered and time is not on its side. The government could sit and wait indefinitely no problem. Terrorist tplf on the other hand has to war/fight to silence internal dissatisfaction and fragmentation. Tigrayans will sober up and start asking questions. Tplf has no answer.

The only thing I can't understand about this is why it took so long for that? That is mind boggling for me.

The longer it takes until this, the more will be the damage, in my view.

That is what I said before 2 years, not today.

It has to do with the tplf propaganda. Tplf brainwashed Tigrayans that they were the golden ones and tplf was their only saviour. Most Tigrayans interpret the defeat of tplf as their own. More work needs to be done to deprogram Tigrayans and show them that there's betterment alternative to terrorist tplf.

DefendTheTruth wrote: ↑

07 Oct 2022, 16:31

Weyane.is.dead wrote: ↑

07 Oct 2022, 16:21

It's not about territorial gain, it's about suffocating tplf and getting to surrender. Terrorist tplf is cornered and time is not on its side. The government could sit and wait indefinitely no problem. Terrorist tplf on the other hand has to war/fight to silence internal dissatisfaction and fragmentation. Tigrayans will sober up and start asking questions. Tplf has no answer.

The only thing I can't understand about this is why it took so long for that? That is mind boggling for me.

The longer it takes until this, the more will be the damage, in my view.

That is what I said before 2 years, not today.

Like the so called Ukrainian war that is being waged for over 8 months now is not between Ukraine and Russia like the so called Media is relentlessly telling us also for over the last 8 months or so, so is the internal conflict in Ethiopia is also not between the rebellious and terrorist TPLF group and Ethiopia through its goverment. It is also a proxy war!

Ukraine itself and many observers have already admitted that the war in Ukraine is a proxy war being waged between the current day imperialists with the USA at its forefront and the allied forces of the European Union on one hand and the Russian Federation on the other.

America has already spent more money on this war than Ukraine itself, with no end in sight for now.

The war in Ethiopia looked to have headed towards finding a workable solution before days before the other party of the war come in and inserted a precondition while the purportedly negotiating parties proposed to enter into a negotiation without any such a precondition.

The scheduled negotiation was also canceled for a reason we were not told openly.

But here is what the EU-statment wrote about it, on the eve of the start of the planed start of the negotiation in the Republic of South Africa on the 8th of October, 2022.

Reiterates its urgent call for an immediate cessation of hostilities and ceasefire in Tigray and the neighbouring regions without preconditions;

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/do ... 351_EN.pdf

Weyane.is.dead wrote: ↑

07 Oct 2022, 16:38

It has to do with the tplf propaganda. Tplf brainwashed Tigrayans that they were the golden ones and tplf was their only saviour. Most Tigrayans interpret the defeat of tplf as their own. More work needs to be done to deprogram Tigrayans and show them that there's betterment alternative to terrorist tplf.

DefendTheTruth wrote: ↑

07 Oct 2022, 16:31

Weyane.is.dead wrote: ↑

07 Oct 2022, 16:21

It's not about territorial gain, it's about suffocating tplf and getting to surrender. Terrorist tplf is cornered and time is not on its side. The government could sit and wait indefinitely no problem. Terrorist tplf on the other hand has to war/fight to silence internal dissatisfaction and fragmentation. Tigrayans will sober up and start asking questions. Tplf has no answer.

The only thing I can't understand about this is why it took so long for that? That is mind boggling for me.

The longer it takes until this, the more will be the damage, in my view.

That is what I said before 2 years, not today.

Weyane.is.dead,

I am aware of the propaganda factor. That is present to some degree in any society, the level may differ.

Despite that still there should be also some elements in a given society which should stay above the frey and give a guidance to their community. A community overtaken by a crowd of just blind followers has already committed a suicide on itself. Then the problem started there, not here.

I hope very much that there are still some critical thinkers left in our Tigrean community and come forward and try to salvage the community from a total destruction, the current course seems to have headed in that direction in my view.

At the end this guy also revealed himself, took a stand on the side of the enemies of the nation and condemned the AU for its effort to bring peace in the country.

Thanks God that I don't listen to his channel, just the following title caught my eyes.

የከሸፈው የአፍሪካ ህብረት ሽረባ. የአውሮፓ ህብረት ብርቱ ጥሪ

DefendTheTruth wrote: ↑

08 Oct 2022, 16:20

At the end this guy also revealed himself, took a stand on the side of the enemies of the nation and condemned the AU for its effort to bring peace in the country.

Thanks God that I don't listen to his channel, just the following title caught my eyes.

የከሸፈው የአፍሪካ ህብረት ሽረባ. የአውሮፓ ህብረት ብርቱ ጥሪ

The good news is that we don't have only the kinds of this guy of "Riot" who represents disruptions but also the kinds of the following video's presenter who represents continuity as our citizens.

ኢትዮጵያ ምን ግዜም ታሸንፋለች ።




በነገራችን ላይ የመሃል አወደልዳዮች እንደ እነ ምስራቅም በመሃላችን አሉ።

Everybody is sensing the end of TDF as a conventional army.

ተራሮችን ያንቀጠቀጠው ትውልድ እግሬ አውጪኝ ወይንም እጅ ከሰጠማ ውርደት ነው። ሃላፊና ቶማስ ገመድ አዘጋጁ።

info wrote: ↑

17 Oct 2022, 05:17

Everybody is sensing the end of TDF as a conventional army.

Alex de Waal isn’t going to save them:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172yfc6f2wyk6w