Mereja.Forum

This is a big MAY and is just my guess and I could be completely wrong.

I know many will disgaree with my assessment and accuse me of doing damage control for the government. Especially TPLF supporters, who may will be exited by any short lived “success” they may get, will definitely disagree with me.

Federal government seem very keen to keep western money to continue to flow. It’s language in the last few weeks and after the start of the new war by the TPLF is still very peaceful.

Today the foreign minister explained to the diplomatic community in Addis how the government was and still pursuing the peaceful path.

For this effect and to show to the international community that TPLF started the war the federal government may let TPLF control few areas for a brief period.

This of course will have a huge negative political repercussions especially in the Amhara region. After the government showed that TPLF is the clear aggressor, it will then start not only driving TPLF out of the occupied areas but also from the likes of Almata as it has now a justification to occupy so called „southern tigray“.

In bringing raya back to Amhara region it may also hope to win back the hearts and minds of the people in Amhara region.

So the calculation of the federal government may be to force TPLF start a war by refusing to provide basic services and then show the world who is the clear agressor and finally occupy at least so called southern Tigray while still keeping the western money continue flowing.

If my assessment is true, it shows how the government is very careful not to lose the western money yet again.

Watch how both the PM and his deputy are on a “peace finding mission”.

ውታፍ ነቃዩ, why repeat all this again? When are you OPDO/ PP freaks going to learn? Please read line by line below, then go back and read your post.

eden wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 07:57

ውታፍ ነቃዩ, why repeat all this again? When are you OPDO/ PP freaks going to learn? Please read line by line below, then go back and read your post.

TPLF cadre, how about you tell your useless bosses to know their limits and stop their stupid adventures?

The federal government is still on a “peace finding mission” and the audience is the international community.

It seems the government will soon launch an offensive to occupy Raya Alamata.

Clearly the woyane leaders are being played like a fool by PP officials. Woyane leaders are riding straight into the PP trap.

info wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 07:37

So the calculation of the federal government may be to force TPLF start a war by refusing to provide basic services and then show the world who is the clear agressor and finally occupy at least so called southern Tigray while still keeping the western money continue flowing.

Have these super intelligent federal strategists forgotten that forcing the start of a war will make you clear aggressor? Do they not know that forcing the start of a war is one million miles from negotiating in good faith?

Do you really think those who control the 'Western money' are one brain cell idiots who cannot understand cause and effect? Do those who control the 'Western money' have no idea of what negotiating in good faith means?

Misraq wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 09:14

Brother info

For the full months of July, Weapons were being flown to tigray from Sudan through Welkait. These antonov planes are very easy to shot because they are gigantic. They are used to transport people and heavy artillaries. The Oromuma OPDO chose not to shot them. People in Welqait had reported to us that such flight was a common scenario these days in night skies of Welkait. Do you wonder why? Well this is by design. Knowing abiy ahmeds head and how it works it is for TPLF to be rearmed so that it can overwhealm the Fano and Afar militias to once again control lands

So, brother Info with limited amount of posts you make here it is hard to put you in one basket with pin point accuracy but you are definitely one of the two
1 - ውታፍ ነቃዩ Ezema/Ginbot-7
2 - OPDO cadre

Here is what will happen. The fake "federal government" a.k.a OPDO will obviously let TPLF over run certain Amhara and Afar territories as it has done previously to let the Amhara Fano and Tigray TDF annhilate each other as it had happened last year because it perfectly fits the narrative and objectives of the OPDO and its so many Orommuma offshoots. Amhara Fano will have no choice except face the eternal enemy TPLF/TDF. The OPDO will allow TPLF/TDF to do chest pumping by withdrawing Federal troops from chifra (Afar) all the way to the gates of Mille so that the ember-tegadalays continue to produce more music that numbs its society to come out in sunami against Fano and Afar militias. The end result of this game is death to another 500,000 - 1,000,000 souls from Afar, Tigre and Amhara. OPDO will let this pass with minimal (100-1000 death of oromuma coward soldiers). In the meantime Oromuma will aim to buy more time to strengthen its hold on power while continuing to accuire more territories in South, Addis Abeba, Shewa and possibly connect the island kemisse zone to the remaining Oromia by devastating Semein Shoa and also uprooting more amharas from Oromia.

As wutaf neqay or OPDO cadre, you tried to ignore the fact that three different polities exist in Ethiopia. These polities significantly have a say on the direction the country goes past and present and also in the future unless ethnic politics is banned. Hence, the political calculations are made and created based on these three at the present with the order i put below

1) Oromuma - agressively playing the later two to anhilate each other
2) Tigray - agressively singing and dancing to distroy Amhara
3) Amhara - Defensive mode on Tigray and chosing not to confornt Oromuma for fear of fighting two fronts

You are consumed with only one world view i.e. fano and Amhara. This makes you miss a whole lot of other factors such as the international community. Fano is not an immediate threat to the federal government hence no need to let tigray and fano finish each other. The federal government has far more pressing issues than fano such as foreign currency. If you only focus on one parameter and take it out of proportion then your analysis will definitely fall apart.

Witaf neqay info doing his dirty job

info wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 09:27

You are consumed with only one world view i.e. fano and Amhara. This makes you miss a whole lot of other factors such as the international community. Fano is not an immediate threat to the federal government hence no need to let tigray and fano finish each other. The federal government has far more pressing issues than fano such as foreign currency. If you only focus on one parameter and take it out of proportion then your analysis will definitely fall apart.

You missed the big elephant by design (since you are wutaf neqay) i.e the ethnic politics and its multi-faceted dynamics. To begin with there is no federal government in Ethiopia. It is OPDO-Biltsigina on the top running the show and the script so far is ..... remain on power by any means, continue the project oromuma by let enemies eliminate each other if they are hard to control, and eliminate enemy if it is weak as the case of Abdi-Illeys somali state and The dollar will keep flowing so long us you sit in Arat Killo.

In short Tigrays 27 years script which pits Oromos against Amharas is the same Script Oromuma uses now Switching it Tigray against Amara

Misraq wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 09:37

info wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 09:27

You are consumed with only one world view i.e. fano and Amhara. This makes you miss a whole lot of other factors such as the international community. Fano is not an immediate threat to the federal government hence no need to let tigray and fano finish each other. The federal government has far more pressing issues than fano such as foreign currency. If you only focus on one parameter and take it out of proportion then your analysis will definitely fall apart.

You missed the big elephant by design (since you are wutaf neqay) i.e the ethnic politics and its multi-faceted dynamics. To begin with there is no federal government in Ethiopia. It is OPDO-Biltsigina on the top running the show and the script so far is ..... remain on power by any means, continue the project oromuma by let enemies eliminate each other if they are hard to control, and eliminate enemy if it is weak as the case of Abdi-Illeys somali state and The dollar will keep flowing so long us you sit in Arat Killo.

In short Tigrays 27 years script which pits Oromos against Amharas is the same Script Oromuma uses now Switching it Tigray against Amara

So what would you say if I’m wrong and the government started the offensive which it seems to happen soon? All your one parameter based view fall apart.

It seems you watched too much ethio360 as your world is revolving around oromuma and nothing else completely ignoring the personal zeal of the PM to stay in power by any means etc.

info wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 09:46

So what would you say if I’m wrong and the government started the offensive which it seems to happen soon? All your one parameter based view fall apart.

It seems you watched too much ethio360 as your world is revolving around oromuma and nothing else completely ignoring the personal zeal of the PM to stay in power by any means etc.

I don't relay Ethio-360 view. That media is an extension of Digital Weyane for me. But their track record on the moves of Abiy Ahimed is accurate so far. If you despute that please make your point.

As to myself, i will follow my gut instincts based on the data i gathered so far. Abiy Ahmend is an imposter hence he lost a wide support base. Lets review a couple of the things he said since you suffer from "short memory", the term himself coined for people like you

1- "ጁንታው ዱቄት ሆኖዋል" said by Abiy Ahmed - Really?
2- "ጁንታው በጋንታ ደረጃ እንኩዋን ሃይል የለውም በዘራች ሁ አይደረስ" said by Birhanu Julla - Really?
3- "We Oromos are marching like elephant while our enemies (habeshas) walking like a tortoise" said by Abiy Ahmed in 2020 in Bale, Oromia.
4- "ስንኖር ኢትዮጵያዊ ስንሞት ኢትዮጵያዊ" said by Abiy Ahmed - Really?
5- "የትግላችን መዳራሻ ፊንፊኔን የኦሮምያ ማድረግ ነው" said by Abiy Ahmed ...is he not implementing that?
6- "ፖለቲካ ቁማር ነው፥፥ just like tigres created EPRDF and run the show, we created PP to serve OPDO" said by Shimelis Abdissa. didn't he said that?
7- "አዲስ አበባ ነዋሪ ኦሮሞ ጠል ነው" said by Abiy Ahmed. didn't he said that?
8- "The enemy conquered us 150 years ago when we were sleeping and fighting against each other." said by Abiy Ahmed in OPDO conference in Jimma 2019
9-"We crushed the enemy who crushed 150 years ago right at this spot ate finfine" said by shimelis abdisa
10-"The next 3000-5000 we Oromos will rule" said by Lencho Bati, 2019


i can go to hundred and thousands. ውታፍ ነቃይስ chose not to add the above parameters in the conflict equations and we know why

I totally 100% DO NOT call it smart. This is very stupid. You lose life while retreating and then lose another round life to re-capture. Where is the cost-benefit analysis. You cost the lives of 20,000 to control ግራ ካሶ and then you retreat to for so-called military strategy then TPLF takes the vacated area. Then, the 2nd stupid operation takes place that cost another 30,000 lives. In sum, 50,000 lives wasted for nothing and still 2 years later at square one. Why is this happening? Just please the West and Europe? How is this worthful at the cost of innocent lives. I can tell you this, this time around if there are wise ENDF members they will challenge this faulty often conspirator operation for they are sacrificing their comrades life - just to make TPLF and its enabler happy. If the so-called government was smart it will make the operation short and sweet ignoring the noise. Some now even alleging, this war is a fake drama between TPLF and PP-OLF government and doing it by choosing Amhara region so that every time there is this fight Amhara people will be weakened - regarding Amhara as their common enemy. ተማክረው የፈሱት አይገማም አይነት መሆኑ ነው። The only way Abiy Ahmed can prove himself is articulating the goal of this war to the people and what the end goal is he or his government should not be allowed to talk about the so called sh!t ህግ ማስከበር. And no body care to hear about which country says what - that is none of their business

info wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 07:37

This is a big MAY and is just my guess and I could be completely wrong.

I know many will disgaree with my assessment and accuse me of doing damage control for the government. Especially TPLF supporters, who may will be exited by any short lived “success” they may get, will definitely disagree with me.

Federal government seem very keen to keep western money to continue to flow. It’s language in the last few weeks and after the start of the new war by the TPLF is still very peaceful.

Today the foreign minister explained to the diplomatic community in Addis how the government was and still pursuing the peaceful path.

For this effect and to show to the international community that TPLF started the war the federal government may let TPLF control few areas for a brief period.

This of course will have a huge negative political repercussions especially in the Amhara region. After the government showed that TPLF is the clear aggressor, it will then start not only driving TPLF out of the occupied areas but also from the likes of Almata as it has now a justification to occupy so called „southern tigray“.

In bringing raya back to Amhara region it may also hope to win back the hearts and minds of the people in Amhara region.

So the calculation of the federal government may be to force TPLF start a war by refusing to provide basic services and then show the world who is the clear agressor and finally occupy at least so called southern Tigray while still keeping the western money continue flowing.

If my assessment is true, it shows how the government is very careful not to lose the western money yet again.

Watch how both the PM and his deputy are on a “peace finding mission”.

sarcasm wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 08:31

info wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 07:37

So the calculation of the federal government may be to force TPLF start a war by refusing to provide basic services and then show the world who is the clear agressor and finally occupy at least so called southern Tigray while still keeping the western money continue flowing.

Have these super intelligent federal strategists forgotten that forcing the start of a war will make you clear aggressor? Do they not know that forcing the start of a war is one million miles from negotiating in good faith?

Do you really think those who control the 'Western money' are one brain cell idiots who cannot understand cause and effect? Do those who control the 'Western money' have no idea of what negotiating in good faith means?

ሎጂክ ሆይ የት ነሽ?! .

Joke of the century. Tplf, logic and good faith

sarcasm wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 11:42

sarcasm wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 08:31

info wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 07:37

So the calculation of the federal government may be to force TPLF start a war by refusing to provide basic services and then show the world who is the clear agressor and finally occupy at least so called southern Tigray while still keeping the western money continue flowing.

Have these super intelligent federal strategists forgotten that forcing the start of a war will make you clear aggressor? Do they not know that forcing the start of a war is one million miles from negotiating in good faith?

Do you really think those who control the 'Western money' are one brain cell idiots who cannot understand cause and effect? Do those who control the 'Western money' have no idea of what negotiating in good faith means?

ሎጂክ ሆይ የት ነሽ?! .

I do not think info's prediction is correct. His hypothesis stems from an assumption that still TPLF enjoys the international community support. I don't think so. The Ethiopian government declaration it will bomb anywhere where TPLF stored ammunition is a clear signal that TPLF was abandoned by the international community.
TPLF used its ally Shene this year to massacre Amhara farmers, to ignite religious war in the country. The international community might have noticed.
The Ethiopian airforce bombed ammunition storage in Mekele recently so far no word of condemination. That tells you something.

"ሎጂክ ሆይ የት ነሽ?! ."

Loves it!

sarcasm wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 11:42

sarcasm wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 08:31

info wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 07:37

So the calculation of the federal government may be to force TPLF start a war by refusing to provide basic services and then show the world who is the clear agressor and finally occupy at least so called southern Tigray while still keeping the western money continue flowing.

Have these super intelligent federal strategists forgotten that forcing the start of a war will make you clear aggressor? Do they not know that forcing the start of a war is one million miles from negotiating in good faith?

Do you really think those who control the 'Western money' are one brain cell idiots who cannot understand cause and effect? Do those who control the 'Western money' have no idea of what negotiating in good faith means?

ሎጂክ ሆይ የት ነሽ?! .

Info,
You are the fool.
This war is round #3 under 2 years.
No body has the resources, the time and a precious life to sacrifice so that a childish and incompetent evil can stay in power.
Both the TPLF and its child PP must go.

info wrote: ↑

26 Aug 2022, 07:37

This is a big MAY and is just my guess and I could be completely wrong.

I know many will disgaree with my assessment and accuse me of doing damage control for the government. Especially TPLF supporters, who may will be exited by any short lived “success” they may get, will definitely disagree with me.

Federal government seem very keen to keep western money to continue to flow. It’s language in the last few weeks and after the start of the new war by the TPLF is still very peaceful.

Today the foreign minister explained to the diplomatic community in Addis how the government was and still pursuing the peaceful path.

For this effect and to show to the international community that TPLF started the war the federal government may let TPLF control few areas for a brief period.

This of course will have a huge negative political repercussions especially in the Amhara region. After the government showed that TPLF is the clear aggressor, it will then start not only driving TPLF out of the occupied areas but also from the likes of Almata as it has now a justification to occupy so called „southern tigray“.

In bringing raya back to Amhara region it may also hope to win back the hearts and minds of the people in Amhara region.

So the calculation of the federal government may be to force TPLF start a war by refusing to provide basic services and then show the world who is the clear agressor and finally occupy at least so called southern Tigray while still keeping the western money continue flowing.

If my assessment is true, it shows how the government is very careful not to lose the western money yet again.

Watch how both the PM and his deputy are on a “peace finding mission”.

Brother info,

As always, I admire your brilliance in analyzing the aggression of TPLF terrorist junta on Ethiopia and the people of Ethiopia for the last two years. In fact, you also foretold what was going to happen when Seyoum Mesfin and Abay Tsehaye were alive badmouthing about Ethiopia and abby on Tigrai- TV. I understand you are not saying what you wish to happen but you are forecasting as usual what might possibly happen. Understandably brother Misraq and Aber are not happy with your analysis because they do not want to see their people to go through misery again. But I don't know why they are furious. They don't have any reason to be mad at you at all. If what you have predicated happens on the ground, they should be mad at the Ethiopian government even though it is not going to happen this time around. Because TPLF rag tag militias are weak while ENDF and Fanos are stronger than ever.

Anyway, I just hope that the government of Ethiopia and ENDF don't allow that to happen again because the people of Amhara and Afar have already gone through so much. In my opinion, the government of Ethiopia has to be decisive on its goal and that their target should be neutralizing if not eradicating TPLF terrorist junta once and for all. If that requires going back to Mekelle again, so be it. Because you, brother Jimmy, Aber and other Amhara brothers and sisters obviously care about your people more than agames. Knowing that war brings misery and destruction, the last thing you want is the misery for your people. But this is going to require Fanos' resilience and sacrifice to stand on their ground and annihilate the aggressor that is the selfie obsessed rag tag agame militias.

Thanks for your insight...

Dedebit is always dedeb
R.I.P Abay Tigray and TPLF terrorist group

Info and Temari maybe some of the only Ethiopians on here who try to be objective and keep their biases for/against other nations, to a minimum.
I do not like the way Abiy handled this conflict and other conflicts, to be honest, but there's more to it than my ethnic group vs yours, or etc.

Those like Miss rock and her agame cadre allies, who think that Abiy's government don't want to wipe out TPLF, because of some fear of fano or etc, don't get the bigger picture. Even if Abiy wanted to ''wipe out tplf,'' and was willing; is the country in shape, militarily speaking and financially, to sustain a protracted war? If the army, as it did before, go to occupy tigray, it'll be on hostile territory fighting guerrillas who have the support of the masses, the terrain, etc. it should be stationed in amara and afar, to repel any attacks, then reply inkind with attacks on tplf military sites, of course.
but the country also cannot pretend that egypt isn't posturing to station troops in somalia, and with al shabab recently attacking us in the east; it's obvious someone, something, some force or forces, want to destabilize Ethiopia on all fronts, meanwhile, you guys can only see things as fano vs tplf vs oromo vs abiy vs this, and that.

Abiy's government is under pressure by those who funds Ethiopia has historically depended on to function as a state, their client, and etc.
Fano, tplf, even OLF that of course I support as long as they truly struggle for the rights of Oromos, are nothing compared to them, let's be honest.
Just look.
Ethiopia cannot afford to alienate those who fund it to the tune of billions a year, especially when the fact is, abiy came to power and the coffers/forex of the country were depleted and stashed in tplf's offshore accounts.
If Ethiopia got on its feet, economically, then of course, it could afford to say no to aid and etc.