Why is TIME so important when you are a fledgling strongman?
(1) TIME is a friend of those who have/control the resources. See Abiy vs. TPLF - Abiy has unhindered trade, tax and international channel to raise capital, buy weapons, collect taxes and with that buy friends… The worst mistake TPLF did was giving Abiy TIME until he forms alliance with Isayas, get relationships to find drones, strategize on how to isolate TPLF politically… After giving him 2 and half years, they did crazy attack on army which would have accepted them betikusu in 2018 or 2019.
(2) Now although the political situation seems confused and erratic, TPLF is outcast even more than 2018 and TPLF itself has woken to the reality that there is no clear purpose to engage in yet another round of war because Amhara, Afar, Somali, South… have no need to be liberated from anyone and surely will not invite/let TPLF to pass by. So TPLF is as Vodkachew stated it in “Qirqar” wallowing in its Kilil even allowed by Gallas to breakaway if they wish so.
(3) Everyday this “no peace no war” goes on Abiy is entrenching his friends, cronies and allies and building a spy and war machine that had been tested by fire like gold in the midst of the war. That is why TPLF stopped calling Meshrefet and started using Teklay Ministru. (Vodkachew even said sometimes Abiy may not have heard of when the Amhara Fanno attack us?! Pathetic wuridet). So no peace no war is at least weakening TPLF and its followers as their place is being taken Gallas and Amharas in the economy leaving TPLF out of the game because of its pride and ego.
(4) TIME will open the eyes of those people who’re even the deepest of sleep. People tend to lean towards where the money is. The people who live in the borders of Tigray will realize the ABC of human psychology - they’d gravitate towards economic advantage. For a Rayan is is better to trade southward or just die in hunger? Will people in Wolkayit choose to be called Tegaru while seeing being in Ethiopia (Amhara) is in fact helping them economically? “It’s the economy, STUPID” works for us too.
(5) Now Abiy has built a spy and war machine so big and strong he doesn’t even need human resource to win a war. His weapons are the game changers. Fanno this, OLA that, Amhara PP that, Al Shabab this, Benshabgul that… are immaterial. The army is there and most of all the weapons are there. So TIME has paid off Abiy and will continue to do so. A day added is life for Abiy and death for his enemies.
Love him or hate him, missteps by TPLF has made Abiy stronger while his wisdom of leaving TPLF in its Kilil qirqar was a genius feat he pulled that left TPLF with its pride and ego while licking its wound.