Abere wrote: ↑31 May 2022, 17:00
You are entitled to your opinion as am I. The point is when you stated "The best thing the governments of both countries can do" what do you mean? Tigray and Eritrea? Ethiopia now has no control over it, Tigray is a runaway spoiled child. The TPLF in fact has been fighting with Eritrea for long, when, and where do you want the war to stop? Your analogy of Tigray with Afghanistan is an apple and orange comparison. Unless you are referring Tigray is the Afghanistan of Ethiopia bullied by terrorist TPLF. For the last 2 years, Tigray is cut off from basic services such as education and health, the most basic of all. It is immoral to keep the children of Tigres out of school indefinitely and expect the 99.7% illiterate farmers who can't read and write can make wise choice for their lives and their family. Farmers are innocent people they follow when some who claims even to have 3 grade education. Tigre people are just brainwashed and lost millions in the recent war in Amhara and Afar. And it is also unthinkable to allow TPLF as an organization to exist and lead Tigray. Tigre lives will be unsafe as long as TPLF lives with them. Thus, TPLF has to be removed by any means possible. Given the current situation, the Ethiopian “government” is very opportunistic and does not want to defeat TPLF ( for its own ethnic apartheid goal). Thus, it is in the best interest of Eritrea and Ethiopia, for Eritrea to take care of TPLF once and for all. Neither Eritrea nor Ethiopia can afford a war with an open calendar - especially where external powers are itching for something as time goes on. I want Eritrea to score a stealthy quick and effective victory over TPLF. If Eritrea buys more time, the opportunity will be squandered, especially the invader and aggressor is rebel TPL. Let's differentiate, again, defeating TPLF from helping Tigres and us all. I admire a result-based management/leadership or critique not otherwise.
Sadacha Macca wrote: ↑31 May 2022, 16:36
Ejecting a government or political movement that has popularity in their home state, is not as easy as making a post on an internet forum.
It would require the genocide of millions, which is not possible, rational, or morally correct.
Whether any of us like it or not, the TPLF is popular in Tigray, and the recent conflicts only cemented that popularity, because a nation that feels under siege will unite for their survival, and won't have the luxury of entertaining the idea of a new party or movement taking power, when their very existence is at stake, not to mention TPLF is well established in Tigray and many families have former members of it/martyr family members. No other party can boast of having the same history in Tigray.
Eritrea, even with its strong defense forces, cannot root out an idea, or an ideology from the minds of millions, but of course, in a conventional war, 1 on 1, they can wipe out the TPLF forces, but winning over hearts and minds is what determines such things that you advocate for.
Superpowers failed in Afghanistan and elsewhere, for similar reasons, despite having superior armaments. You fight ideas with better ideas, and you fight armies with superior armies; each having its distinct field of battle-one in the minds and hearts, and one on plains, mountains, etc.
Tigrayans either need a new party, that balances advocating for and struggling for the interests of tigray, while not aggressing against their neighbors, or face the current predicament for the foreseeable future.
The best thing the governments of both countries can do, is keep their forces trained, and ready for any eventualities, and keep the borders around Tigray under careful watch, and Abiy definitely failed the Afar and Amhara states, by letting TPLF get that far, but a lot of it is attributed to the poor state of the ENDF which was dominated by ethnic tigrayans, especially the top positions, for so long, that it will take years to restructure itself.
You don't train generals overnight, or even in a year or so, and the top generals with most of the war experience in the ENDF, were tigrayans, due to the corrupt, nepotism of the TPLF led EPRDF, for decades. So, yeah, it's a lot more complex than ''just send the strong eritrean forces in to fight.''
I used facts to substantiate my claims and cited examples, such as Afghanistan and elsewhere, where central governments, with allies such as superpowers with vastly superior arms, still LOST in the end. What did you use to substantiate your claims? Facts? Examples? No and, No.
It's an analogy, because like in Afghanistan, where the central government with its ally [the West], tried to wipe out a group labelled as a terrorist, they couldn't; even with the direct participation of a super power/various superpowers too.
TPLF, after retreating to its home base, is no longer a ''bully'' to the rest of Ethiopia, as long as it stays within Tigray's borders, it wouldn't be a bully-as it was when it ruled from the center, Addis Ababa; it instead transitioned from a terrorist bully, to a terrorist movement in its home-base where it has support from the locals, despite being outnumbered and out-gunned by its government and neighbors- similar to the case in Afghanistan, albeit with some differences in sizes of the countries, the armaments of the neighbors fighting it, and the central government fighting it, etc.
In this case, despite the differences in several things/factors:
Abiy would be the Afghani president, except that, he has enough local support apparently, and enough armed forces, to remain in power for now.
The crumbled ENDF, would be the Afghan army, except that it is no longer intact and as efficient as it was before, due to the corruption in the armed forces that saw the tigrayans only be the top leaders and get the best training.
Taliban would be TPLF, except it only operates in one state for the most part, and due to its popularity there, it can survive for the time being.
You said Abiy has reasons for not ''wiping out TPLF,'' when in reality, he would fail and take the country down with him, as Mengistu did, if he were to try to commit to another decade or multi-decade war, which of course benefits those who hate Abiy so much that they don't mind if he goes down, even if the countries economy and stability potentially worsen and go down with him, such as yourself, but those who are not blinded by emotions, such as yourself, see that, despite his many flaws and mistakes, Abiy was wise to not continue fighting an unwinnable war. You can not fight your way out of every problem. This type of attitude is one reason why Ethiopia has been caught up in back to back civil wars and conflicts, since its inception; when did it ever have some peace?
Is Tigray fighting Eritrea now? Are there ongoing conflicts between the two? If so, prove it, otherwise, the Eritreans here themselves would have discussed it. You said Amhara's can do it alone, without help, which is fine; but did you consult with Amhara's and ask if they want more nonstop wars with their neighbors? More TPLF soldiers in Lalibela, Wallo, elsewhere, seeking to take out their desire for revenge on their women and children? Or, should they just fight nonstop wars to satisfy YOUR desire and opinions?
The best point you made is regards to the basic services in Tigray, this is where the internal movement of Tigrayans needs to strengthen itself to either: make a new party, as I said, that is strong enough to garner support from within to topple TPLF, work with its neighbors, and the federal government, to resume those services; OR, do it on their own since they are choosing TPLF over Ethiopia. Any movement from the outside to impose its will on Tigray, or any nation determined to not be enslaved or be dictated to by others; is bound to fail. It failed elsewhere and will fail there, too.
Eritrea can score a win, only in conventional warfare though... as you said, but it will just lead to more wars, it won't end with the defeat of the tplf remnants or their remaining elites... it will only drive thousands and thousands more of them to the forests and mountains to fight another 10 years or more.... this is what you're failing to comprehend...they will simply see it as a foreign invasion and stand with whomever is in power, in this case the TPLF, and fight against what they perceive as an attack on their entire nation and survival... it's not as simple as ''fight, win fast and it's over''...no, far from it!
