Mereja.Forum

[sarcasm]

It led the way in containing regional crises, and was seen by the US as underwriting regional stability. Ethiopia's position in IGAD has been severely diminished.

Strained relationship

Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea, a military ally in the war in Tigray, are showing signs of fraying, as Eritrean President Issayas Afewerki becomes closer to Amhara politicians and business interests. Issayas's delays in responding to requests to withdraw Eritrean troops from Ethiopia last year angered officials in Addis. Abiy and Issayas also seem to disagree over the need to continue a heavily militarised campaign in Tigray.

Like the Amhara ethno-nationalists, Issayas wants to see the TPLF totally eliminated – a tougher line to that currently taken by Abiy. Eritrea has been spearheading plans to reshape regional relations in the Horn of Africa, forming an alliance with Ethiopia and Somalia in 2018, and attempting to set up an alternative organisation to the East African body the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

This is likely to be upset by the election of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as Somalia's President this month. Abiy and Issayas had preferred the incumbent, Mohamed Abdullahi 'Farmajo', to win (AC Vol 63 No 10, Farmajo faces the ultimate test). Mohamud is unlikely to want to participate in the tripartite alliance, which Farmajo had backed.

In 2020, Farmajo secretly sent over 5,000 Somali troops to be trained in Eritrea, and subsequently allowed them to be used in the war in Tigray. They have yet to return to Somalia and uncertainty about their fate was one of the factors that contributed to Farmajo's defeat. Leaving office on 23 May, Farmajo belatedly admitted to having authorised this 'training'. As President, Mohamud will try to bring back the survivors to Somalia as a matter of urgency.

Mohamud suffered from Eritrean interference in Somalia during his previous term of office, from 2012 to 2017. Eritrea's support for elements associated with Al Shabaab, including leading Islamist figurehead Sheikh Aweys, undermined support for Mohamud among his own Hawiye clan, and contributed to his defeat in 2017.

Ethiopia has lost its regional position and status since the Tigrayan conflict started in November 2020. In 1991, when the Tigrayan-led Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front captured Addis Ababa and overthrew the military regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam, the country became the hegemonic power in the Horn of Africa.

It led the way in containing regional crises, and was seen by the US as underwriting regional stability. Ethiopia's position in IGAD has been severely diminished. Khartoum's demand last June that Ethiopian forces withdraw from a UN peacekeeping mission in Abyei – a region disputed between Sudan and South Sudan - was symbolic of its loss of standing. The Ethiopian commander if the UN force was finally replaced in February.

The African Union, like IGAD, has made little progress in finding an 'African solution for an African problem' in Tigray. It has confined its efforts to appointing Nigeria's former President Olusegun Obasanjo as Special Envoy. He has made little visible progress in persuading the two sides towards substantive talks but the TPLF referred to his efforts when it released 4,000 government prisoners of war this month (AC Vol 63 No 6, Rivals set out their minimum conditions).

The release appears to have been the result of telephone discussions between senior military officers on both sides in recent weeks, and were encouraged by Obasanjo. The TPLF, in turn, called on the government to release thousands of Tigrayan civilians and soldiers, arrested in 2020.

Outside the hyper-cautious statements of the AU and IGAD, concern about Ethiopia's stability is growing among African officials and activists. In mid-May, a consortium of 16 African civil society organisations wrote to the UN Security Council, calling for Ethiopia to be placed on its agenda, and for measures including an arms embargo on all parties, the disarmament of militias, and the deployment of peacekeepers to Western Tigray.


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[AbyssiniaLady]

as Eritrean President Issayas Afewerki becomes closer to Amhara politicians and business interests.

That's not going to happen, Amhara is an ethnic group, It is not an independent nation with international boundaries.

[sesame]

A stupid conclusion. Ethiopia's population is probably equal to the sum of the population of the other members of IGAD. So how can its position and status diminish? What has diminished is the colonialist's grip on Ethiopia. They cannot anymore depend on Ethiopia to do their bidding. With the servile Agames gone for good, Ethiopia will become a truly independent nation. Unless Abiy and his PP government waver!

[sarcasm]

"Kenya has long been recognized as a regional anchor state and an assertive voice for Africa on the international stage. Its strategic importance has grown amid global power shifts and a turbulent security landscape in eastern Africa." Chatham House