Mereja.Forum

What does the gamble of TPLF dinosaurs tell you?

Leading to the November 2020 conflict, TPLF leaders started filing back to Mekelle and began preparing for the inevitable. As in anything in life (and definitely in politics) gambling was involved.

For now let’s forget the politics and emotion aside and think of what the gamble taken by some and those who stayed out of it.

I’ve gambled big and small and have won and lost big and small. So I am talking out of the perspective of how things work in life. I’m not making any point here.

As a background I heard a few former Tegadalayas say that among those who returned to Mekelle, some did because they feared being isolated and some without conviction but not to be seen as outliers.

(1) take General Samora and Arkebe who stayed out of it. Did they think it’s not the way to go or thought it wasn’t going to work out or they didn’t think such a madness would really materialize?

(2) take General Raya beer. He had all going on for him in Addis and cashed out nice. He played it “neutral and sane” and still gambled with Mekelle group. What his choice tells me is that he was sure he’d come out a winner on the other side and keep what he cashed out when he’s a winner. This is true not only to General Beer but to many who gambled big time while their properties are lying around in Addis, Oromia and Gambella. So as a gambler I peek in his mind and see the confidence that the “lightening attack” would bear fruit.

(3) take Dr Tedros who called in sick for “Covid” from work (see his tweet of November 2) to participate live in the start of the attack and give support in the international arena. Is it just “dem keliguam yisibal” or was he gambling that TPLF will definitely win and gambling all the way in was wise?

I hear that even Dubai (a country that never comes after anyone’s bank account) has frozen EFFORT money and money related to the the big players. The food aid from that country to Mekelle is just a wink-wink for TPLF leaders and it’s not free - don’t forget when Abiy said I’ve a “good friend” in Dubai, it is more than that). Even after Seyoum is out of the picture, the load of money in China and Far East is being schmoozed by Abiy.

And what I’m saying is once I turn 58, I’d have to hire someone to appraise and evaluate my decisions. This is reenforced not only by TPLF dinosaurs but look what Putin got himself into!

As one who enjoys gambling and still knows its vanity (kentunet), I’m amazed by how confident these dinosaurs were when they threw all their stakes just committing the worst mistake a gambler ever does - underestimating your adversary.

General Raya Beer has made the worst gamble of his life by all standards. Life is taking risks and gambling is one of them. Even the Bible recommends it:

እንጀራህን በውኃ ፊት ላይ ጣለው፥ ከብዙ ቀን በኋላ ታገኛዋለህና።
መጽሐፈ መክብብ 11:1

But gamble is gamble and if you’re screwed, you’re screwed. At one point after you put kids and women in front of your soldiers and ambush soldiers who were not willing to fire bullets (first time this type of human-wave practiced in world history) and the gullible West praises you as the “stellar military leader of world class proportions”. Then next day you’re a fake busted for what you’re. The world is not fair and the gamble has failed miserably. Now it’s time to spend life licking your wounds and singing shoulda-woulda-coulda.