Why TPLF lost the war and buried the Kalashnikov
Posted: 18 Mar 2022, 19:00
Launching wars in this day and age is apparently getting difficult. And the available ways leave little room for maneuver. So is fighting over the long haul (phased out) works or do you have to do it short and sweet (big bang)? We don’t know the details yet but why did TPLF or any guerrilla war not succeeding or occurring nowadays?
(1) Communication - In the olden days when TPLF and EPLF were in the bushes, people had no information about their neighbors, let alone the world. Ever since Gragn Ahmed traumatized the Abyssinians to run to the highlands and isolate themselves (or even before that) the Amhara and the Tigrians lived in awe and fear of the Galla and lowlanders. And they also lived in contempt of one another so much so that they believed there were no other people in the country or the world. Anything south of Shewa was Galla land and the land of the barbarians. So it was easy to make a boogeyman of those people to easily mobilize your fighters. And you spice that with ethnic rivalary and tell your followers, “You’re Tigrians, how could Amharas conquer and subjugate you?!” and then they would fight like tigers out of pride and loyalty to their group and you would have difficulty of stopping them…. Why can’t this work now? Because of cellphones and ease of travel. Your phone show you that there is no such thing as being SPECIAL but only being DIFFERENT. People may eat donkey or snake but that doesn’t mean they’re lowly or bad than you, they’re just different. So it is hard to draw a caricature of your enemies as monsters or yourself as special/saints because communication has made the world flat/even.
(2) Balkanization - when Ethiopia was structurally organized in ethnic administrative regions, it was intended to put an end to one group from masquerading as liberator of others from an authoritarian tyrant. If the Somali go to Oromia and say they’re liberating Oromos, Oromos would say, “Thanks but no thanks”. Same is true with Tigrians who found themselves unwelcome in Amhara and Afar as no one liberates another because they’re segregated and isolated only to care for themselves and dimming of national agenda to rally others to follow you. TPLF did the balkanization partly to keep liberation fronts to their backyards. Imagine Shene liberating Somalis or Amharas from Abiy. Now TPLF is taking its own medicine!
(3) Age of Relativism - why do I die for YOU? For people to die for YOU or the CAUSE you’re mobilizing them for, it is not as easy as it was in the 1970’s. Back then, highlanders were living the life of isolation and the only thing in their minds was Orthodox Christianity and their ethnicity. Now information has bombarded them and it’s hard to have an ABSOLUTE TRUTH. Everything is relative. We’re in an age of relativism. You compare yourself to the life of others you see down the road or friends on Facebook or the Kardashians. So why do I die for YOU? Or relatively speaking, people ask “isn’t there a comparable other solution than dying?” “Like a lesser choice?” Relativism at is at work.
(4) Ideology - what do you believe in? Truth? Equality? Land? Socialism? All had been tried and done and they proved things not worth dying for. If it was today, no Eritrean or Tigrian would have fought as fiercely as they did in the 80’s. Information has made people seek wealth and comfort - and ideology is faltering at all levels. No one believes blindly in one thing. Even churches have become money machines and religion a brain game of how I wash you dry to part you from your money. So how could you tie together people who have disparate and spaced out mentality to fall in line to fight for YOU?
(5) Fragmentation of Media - Media is not what it used to be. It is not the age where you get the 7pm news or the 9 pm VOA once a day and you go to sleep. There is no rhythm with which your leaders can micromanage your brain by controlling what you hear and see. They can’t polish propaganda because that posting on YouTube or Facebook is telling them the different or the truth, or is that even the truth? Who cares? But they’re getting their info from sources you can’t control and that has killed the choreographed propaganda and the prescription of information you need to tailor for your purpose of making the blindly fight. This kills the basic rule of wars as fighting is 90% about information warfare and propaganda than pulling the trigger. That weakening of your grip on information and hence the minds of those you want to control.
So what type of war will succeed? The only war that succeeds is one that you can speedily execute in the shortest time possible - as opposed to the incremental, phased out one controlling one Woreda every year. TPLF was smart to try that in 2021. They sacrificed an amount of youth worth their buildings, farms, dollars and factories to do it fast but failed miserably. But the tactic was a big bang one to do it in days or weeks. Why? Because you ought to use GASLIGHTING. To appear you’re stronger and agile than what you’re. Act fast and disorient your opponents/the world and fortify your supporters. Otherwise, communication has opened the eyes of your fighters and your opponents and it’s hard to keep them stay hating “others” who’re not monsters as they see them as different humans on Facebook or when they traveled to Tepi for college. Also you can’t keep your fighters isolated in a bubble because they’re going to see YouTube and learn something other than your propaganda. And TPLF’s tactic was smart - to make fighters angry about rape of women and rape of Tigray by Amhara, Abiy, and this and that because no ideology other and no one to welcome you littering roses on your way. And TPLF needed to do it fast because anger dissipates fast and there is no ideology to convince Amharas to fight with you or there is no common enemy.
As to my that’s why TPLF lost the war and buried the Kalashnikov. So big bang seems the way than phased out. TPLF tried and failed and Russia is at the cusp of a crossroad. What say you?
(1) Communication - In the olden days when TPLF and EPLF were in the bushes, people had no information about their neighbors, let alone the world. Ever since Gragn Ahmed traumatized the Abyssinians to run to the highlands and isolate themselves (or even before that) the Amhara and the Tigrians lived in awe and fear of the Galla and lowlanders. And they also lived in contempt of one another so much so that they believed there were no other people in the country or the world. Anything south of Shewa was Galla land and the land of the barbarians. So it was easy to make a boogeyman of those people to easily mobilize your fighters. And you spice that with ethnic rivalary and tell your followers, “You’re Tigrians, how could Amharas conquer and subjugate you?!” and then they would fight like tigers out of pride and loyalty to their group and you would have difficulty of stopping them…. Why can’t this work now? Because of cellphones and ease of travel. Your phone show you that there is no such thing as being SPECIAL but only being DIFFERENT. People may eat donkey or snake but that doesn’t mean they’re lowly or bad than you, they’re just different. So it is hard to draw a caricature of your enemies as monsters or yourself as special/saints because communication has made the world flat/even.
(2) Balkanization - when Ethiopia was structurally organized in ethnic administrative regions, it was intended to put an end to one group from masquerading as liberator of others from an authoritarian tyrant. If the Somali go to Oromia and say they’re liberating Oromos, Oromos would say, “Thanks but no thanks”. Same is true with Tigrians who found themselves unwelcome in Amhara and Afar as no one liberates another because they’re segregated and isolated only to care for themselves and dimming of national agenda to rally others to follow you. TPLF did the balkanization partly to keep liberation fronts to their backyards. Imagine Shene liberating Somalis or Amharas from Abiy. Now TPLF is taking its own medicine!
(3) Age of Relativism - why do I die for YOU? For people to die for YOU or the CAUSE you’re mobilizing them for, it is not as easy as it was in the 1970’s. Back then, highlanders were living the life of isolation and the only thing in their minds was Orthodox Christianity and their ethnicity. Now information has bombarded them and it’s hard to have an ABSOLUTE TRUTH. Everything is relative. We’re in an age of relativism. You compare yourself to the life of others you see down the road or friends on Facebook or the Kardashians. So why do I die for YOU? Or relatively speaking, people ask “isn’t there a comparable other solution than dying?” “Like a lesser choice?” Relativism at is at work.
(4) Ideology - what do you believe in? Truth? Equality? Land? Socialism? All had been tried and done and they proved things not worth dying for. If it was today, no Eritrean or Tigrian would have fought as fiercely as they did in the 80’s. Information has made people seek wealth and comfort - and ideology is faltering at all levels. No one believes blindly in one thing. Even churches have become money machines and religion a brain game of how I wash you dry to part you from your money. So how could you tie together people who have disparate and spaced out mentality to fall in line to fight for YOU?
(5) Fragmentation of Media - Media is not what it used to be. It is not the age where you get the 7pm news or the 9 pm VOA once a day and you go to sleep. There is no rhythm with which your leaders can micromanage your brain by controlling what you hear and see. They can’t polish propaganda because that posting on YouTube or Facebook is telling them the different or the truth, or is that even the truth? Who cares? But they’re getting their info from sources you can’t control and that has killed the choreographed propaganda and the prescription of information you need to tailor for your purpose of making the blindly fight. This kills the basic rule of wars as fighting is 90% about information warfare and propaganda than pulling the trigger. That weakening of your grip on information and hence the minds of those you want to control.
So what type of war will succeed? The only war that succeeds is one that you can speedily execute in the shortest time possible - as opposed to the incremental, phased out one controlling one Woreda every year. TPLF was smart to try that in 2021. They sacrificed an amount of youth worth their buildings, farms, dollars and factories to do it fast but failed miserably. But the tactic was a big bang one to do it in days or weeks. Why? Because you ought to use GASLIGHTING. To appear you’re stronger and agile than what you’re. Act fast and disorient your opponents/the world and fortify your supporters. Otherwise, communication has opened the eyes of your fighters and your opponents and it’s hard to keep them stay hating “others” who’re not monsters as they see them as different humans on Facebook or when they traveled to Tepi for college. Also you can’t keep your fighters isolated in a bubble because they’re going to see YouTube and learn something other than your propaganda. And TPLF’s tactic was smart - to make fighters angry about rape of women and rape of Tigray by Amhara, Abiy, and this and that because no ideology other and no one to welcome you littering roses on your way. And TPLF needed to do it fast because anger dissipates fast and there is no ideology to convince Amharas to fight with you or there is no common enemy.
As to my that’s why TPLF lost the war and buried the Kalashnikov. So big bang seems the way than phased out. TPLF tried and failed and Russia is at the cusp of a crossroad. What say you?
