Mereja.Forum

Jawar was the wildcard in Ethiopian politics. Even TPLF fell in love with him, not out of principle, but as a means to an end. And Jawar did not miss that too. But what is he up to now? Is he lurking in the dark waiting for the right time? Or….
My guess is:

(1) he’s not like Eskinder by any measure. Eskew went to Afar and Dessie with the speed and urgency that even Hailesilassie didn’t do after returning from exile. Jawar is taking the time to assess how things are and where he stands in all this mess;

(2) Jawar’s lot has changed a lot. Traveling abroad is shaky as his green card is voided. He’s brought in all his finances back home and mistakenly put in OFC account. Will he find all the money now? Bezih nurro wudinet ma yemotal….

(3) Jawar’s biggest reliance was the TPLF. He and TPLF were in symbiosis ties both crossed by a guy named Abiy (for their own different reasons) and Jawar was sure TPLF would not settle for Abiy and that there would be something coming from the north. So Jawar’s calculation has been reduced to rubbles and it is no time to have that swagger anymore. Ketebanene yiqerala

(4) Most of all he didn’t know that 90% of those who were wining and dining with him and those who were his party functionaries were OPDO spies. Now he is literally alone and lonely. Rude awakening to think Ethiopia is like any other open society and politics is a clean game. He is realizing now that habesha has more layers than onion.

(5) the biggest leg up Abiy got is he has infinite resource to pull the carpet under Jawar’s feet. Abiy has massaged Oromos who could be potential Jawar supporters with bank loans, land, positions.. that they don’t want to risk it by being seen with Jawar or even get banished for back default….

So Jawar has to contend with a lot of issues.

But imagine how surprised to learn see Abiy opening his prison door when he has been waiting/praying for Debretsion.

የት እንደ ሚሄድ የማያቅ ሰው የሚደርሰው ሄዶ ሄዶ ሲድክም የሚቆምበት ቦታ። ወያኔ በል ጃዋር ያ አላማ ቢስ ሰው ማለት ነው። የብሄር ጥያቄ ሞቷል፣ የጃዋር 'ፖለቲካም' እንዲሁ! አሁን እሱ ጎፈሬው ላይ ሚዶ ሰክቶ ፓፕሊክ ኢተለክቿል ቢሆን ይሻለዋል።

Jawar looks this time matured and careful not to repeat his past mistakes. In my view Jawar is the most promising politician to bring change to Ethiopia. The opportunist PP have already failed Ethiopia and have burnt all their cards, it's time to uproot the hyper corrupted and deceptive PP and replace it the with a transitional government where Jawar will be one of the top players. In change management practice a leader that could not bring tangible turn around within 6 months to one year is a failure and Abiy after 4 years has already failed Ethiopia and must go. The hyper corrupted dogs of PP are like a rotten egg and will never change their old habit and will never bring prosperity to Ethiopia.

Horus wrote: ↑

16 Mar 2022, 00:39

የት እንደ ሚሄድ የማያቅ ሰው የሚደርሰው ሄዶ ሄዶ ሲድክም የሚቆምበት ቦታ። ወያኔ በል ጃዋር ያ አላማ ቢስ ሰው ማለት ነው። የብሄር ጥያቄ ሞቷል፣ የጃዋር 'ፖለቲካም' እንዲሁ! አሁን እሱ ጎፈሬው ላይ ሚዶ ሰክቶ ፓፕሊክ ኢተለክቿል ቢሆን ይሻለዋል።

The Ethiopian dilemma is driven more by poverty than political ideology. In the US, Texas (and Maryland too(?)) give you tax bonus if you move to their states. In ours, poverty makes you eye the land others have occupied as it is the primary source of income. So instead of inviting others to come, you uproot them. This would continue to happen I as long as we remain poor and if one feels others have come to live on MY land. So ethnic federalism or not, poverty is the overarching drive I believe. Sure the ethnic arrangement contributes in setting the tone. But can we come out of it with the speed of pulling a knife out of one’s belly? Look how changing the EPRDF to PP has started the path. It takes time to undo the tone. But ethnic issue will remain forever- it’s a question of education and economics. More of the political tone than administrative structure.

Jawar is an ambitious politician who just need to brush some of his moves. He could simply outperform any Oromo political elite if he were to tone down his vitriol and agitating against other ethnic communities (though, that is how he came to prominence and doing so would go against his platform). He ain't someone who gets vicarious pleasure in the achievements of his ethnic kin who are controlling the levers of power in the country. One hardly sees any difference between what Jawar is wanting to achieve and what OPDO is currently doing, though. Rather he always aspires to be the center of the universe for Oromo politics which, unfortunately always brings him in to collusion course with other bigwigs in same camp. He won't settle for less until he dethrones the current novices. IS that probable....? Might not seem currently but it ain't impossible. Pure power struggle!!

OPDO politicians, despite increasing leaning to cater to the extreme wings of the Oromo politics to counter Jawar's moves, they are not trusted by the younger generation for they speak of Ethiopia in a colorful language (the confuse/convince political ideology) and their association with the TPLF era. TPLF is the wild card that both OPDO and Jawar political groups want to employ as a means to check on the moves by none-ethnic centered political groups including the Amhara.

ጃዋር መሃመድ በፍጹም የኦሮሞ መሪ ሊሆን አይችልም፤ የሱ ዘመን ማለት ዘመነ አመጽ አለፈ። አሁን ኦሮሞ የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት ሆኖ አገር አንድ ማድረግ አቅቶት እየለፋ ነው ። አቢይ ለፒፒ ሴንትራል ኮሚቴ ያደረገውን እጅም ስብከት ዘ ሃበሻ ላይስሙት ። ኦሮሞ በቁጥ ብዙ ስለሆነ የኢትዮጵያን ፖለቲካ እንዳሻው (እንደ ጃዋር ህልም) መዘወር ይቻለዋል የሚለው የሶሺያ ሳይንስ መሁሞች ህሳቤ ነው ። ኦሮሞ ያለ ቀረው ኢትዮጵያ የሚያመጣው ለውጥም ሆነ እድገት የለም ። ፒፒ ፓርቲዎች ብዙ ብዙ ነገር ብለዋል ከነዚያ ውስጥ 'ክልል ዘለል ' ' ጎጠኘት መቃወም ' አካታችነት ' ክልል የሚሻገር ልማት ' ወዘተ የሚሉ የጎሳ ስርዓት ክሽፈትን በዳቦ ስም የሚያሞካሹ ነገር ስንሰማ ነው የሰነበትነው። የክልል ድንበር የእድገት ቁጥር አንድ ጠላት እንደ ሆነ ስንነግራቸው 30 አመት አለፈ። ትራይባሊዝም ወደ ካፒታሊዝም ማደግ ስለማይችል ነው ዴሞክራሲ የሚባል የማህበራዊ ስርዓት የመጣው ። አቢይ አህመድ ልዩ ልዩ አዳዲስ የሰልፍ ሀልፕ ራስ አገዝ የወረት ፋሽን ሃሳቦ ካማካሪዎች እየቀሰመ አዳዲስ ጽንሰ ሃሳቦች ኮንሴፕቶች ማዥጎድጎድ ትቶ በዘመንና በፕራክቲስ የተረጋገጡ ሶሺያልና ፖለቲካል ፍልስፍናዎችን መከተል አለበት ። በጎሳ ክልል ላይ ቆሞ አንድ አገር በፍጹም አይገነባም። በክልል የተከፋፈለ ብሄራዊ ገበያ ይዞ አገር አቀፍ ብልጽግና በፍጹም አያመጣም ። በዘር የሚከፋፍል ሕገ መንግስት ይዞ አንድ ወጥ ፓርቲ ለማቆም ካድሬዎቹን ሊያስፈራራ ይችላል፤ መሬት ላይ ያለው ሪያሊቲ ግን ያን ሁሉ ፉርሽ ያደርጋል ። እጅግ ሳይንሳዊ የሆነው የሲሚዮቲክስ ማክሲምን ልብ ይሏል ... 'ካርታውና ምድሩ ካልተስማሙ፣ የተሳሳተው ካርታው ነው' ይላል ያ ሳይንሳዊ ሕግ። ካንጎላችን እያፈለቅን የምንለው ምስልና ካራታ አይደለም እውነተኛው ምድር፤ ካንጎላችን ውጭ ያለው ማንም እንዳሻው የማያዘው ፍጥረት እንጂ! የብልጽግና ዘርፈ ብዙ ምስል የተሳሳተ ካርታ ነው!