Future of Tigray considering the experience of Ukraine! Do not establish independent Tigray but take Ethiopia to Axum !
Posted: 27 Feb 2022, 21:48
Shifting the Center of Gravity of Geopolitics and Economy of the Horn of Africa to Axum
Elites of Tigray (prior to the war) were proposing the following various strategies to keep or further enhance its autonomy and build a prosperous Tigray
- An independent Tigray modelled after Israel (Tegadalai Mehari Yohannes, Mekelle University Lecturer)
- A de facto State (Dr. Mehari Taddele, A prominent Scholar)
- Confederation with Ethiopia (Professor Medhane Tadesse Lecturer)
- Democratized Strong Tigray as Part of Ethiopia (Tigray Prosperity Party members)
- Autonomous Tigray as part of Ethiopia/ If not possible Independent Tigray (Tegadalai Dr. General Teklebirhan)
In my view all the above options could be possible, but we need to identify the one that meets the aspirations of the Tigray people, most feasible and strategically rewarding path without disintegrating Ethiopia. Generations of Tigrayans and all other Ethiopians have died and invested all their life for the territorial integrity and development of Ethiopia and it is my strong conviction and advise to all key stakeholders including TPLF to work toward a new structure that establishes a new federal Ethiopia. Those existing states that want to be a sovereign state/states should be allowed to do so and willingly confederated with the new federal Ethiopia. Thinking only about the independence of Tigray and ignoring the rest of Ethiopia is like throwing the baby with the bathwater and TPLF must lead and allocate the required resources to restructure the whole Ethiopia.
Thirty years ago, TPLF/EPRDF decided to govern Ethiopia from Addis Ababa, Menelik palace. That decision separated TPLF from its home base Tigray, marginalized Tigray from development and we all remember how that worked against TPLF during the Oromia riots. The physical separation of TPLF from its home base also made TPLF weak since it was not replenishing the energy it needed from the Tigray people.
Based on historical contribution Axum played as a corner stone of Ethiopia and knowing the fact that TPLF has to be always within the Tigray people to be effective in a sustainable manner, it is mandatory that the new Ethiopia that will be established under the leadership TPLF to have its head offices established in the historic city of Axum . Addis Ababa must be a “Federal State” within the new Ethiopia and continue as a political, diplomatic, and commercial center and metropolitan diversified city serving all the citizens of the new Ethiopia in an equitable manner without any special claim from Oromos or Amharas. The following are three possible paths Tigray may have to take for its future but option 2 is preferable.
Option 1: Keep existing Federal Ethiopia as is but move the seat of the federal government to Mekelle immediately and to Axum within 5 years
This option does not meet the aspiration of those federal states that are determined to establish sovereign nation, but it is the low-risk path to sustain the territorial integrity of Ethiopia. Enhanced empowerment of the Federal states, improved democracy and establishing a culture of zero tolerance and effective controlling system for corruption may help for this structure to be acceptable by the Ethiopian people.
Option 2: Establishment of “Federated/Confederated Ethiopia” with Tigray as one of the federal states of Ethiopia and Axum as a capital city
- Establish new Federal Ethiopia with all willing states ( big and small) that want to remain as part of Ethiopia with Tigray as its nucleus and Axum as its capital city. Smaller regions such as Gambelia, Benishangul-Gumz, Kimant, Agew, Welayta, etc could be part of the new federal Ethiopia.
- Allow Oromia, Amhara, Afar, Sidama and Somalia to be sovereign states ( if they demand for it) but willingly confederate them with the new Federal Ethiopia.
- Tigray as the nucleus of the new Federal Ethiopia will ultimately become the political/democratic, cultural, economic and a technology center of the Horn of Africa within the next 20 to 30 years and one of the anchors and pillars of the Confederated Ethiopia. Tigray as the center of the new Federal Ethiopia shall always be in charge and in control of the army and security of the new Federal Ethiopia and have a MOSSAD like intelligence unit that safeguards Tigrayans and their interests both in Tigray and elsewhere. The confederation could have a fully integrated & liberalized boundary, economy, monetary policy and common currency & passport and cross utilization and joint development of strategic infrastructure like electric power, multimodal transportation, education, etc. Since Oromos have a dream of establishing a sovereign state, Tigray and Oromia could play the leading role in transforming Federal Ethiopia to Federated/Confederated Ethiopia.
Option 3: Independent Tigray with Axum as a capital city.
- If the above Option 1 and 2 are not possible, the fallback scenario is the establishment of an independent Tigray legally as per the existing constitution and get recognition by United Nations through the sponsorship of post–Isaias Eritrea or Ethiopia. Independent Tigray could establish of a confederation with Eritrea to build critical mass which could ultimately evolve to Confederated Ethiopia by integrating additional willing states in the Horn of Africa. This option will be more challenging to achieve as the international community and the United Nations may not support it as it affects the territorial integrity of the existing Ethiopia. A small land locked Tigray surrounded by genocidal neighbors could also face the fate of Ukraine in the long run and may not be viable and sustainable. All the investment and sacrifice in blood and sweat our ancestors invested in the present Ethiopia including the investment by TPLF and Tigrayans over the last three decades could also be wasted.
-
Elites of Tigray (prior to the war) were proposing the following various strategies to keep or further enhance its autonomy and build a prosperous Tigray
- An independent Tigray modelled after Israel (Tegadalai Mehari Yohannes, Mekelle University Lecturer)
- A de facto State (Dr. Mehari Taddele, A prominent Scholar)
- Confederation with Ethiopia (Professor Medhane Tadesse Lecturer)
- Democratized Strong Tigray as Part of Ethiopia (Tigray Prosperity Party members)
- Autonomous Tigray as part of Ethiopia/ If not possible Independent Tigray (Tegadalai Dr. General Teklebirhan)
In my view all the above options could be possible, but we need to identify the one that meets the aspirations of the Tigray people, most feasible and strategically rewarding path without disintegrating Ethiopia. Generations of Tigrayans and all other Ethiopians have died and invested all their life for the territorial integrity and development of Ethiopia and it is my strong conviction and advise to all key stakeholders including TPLF to work toward a new structure that establishes a new federal Ethiopia. Those existing states that want to be a sovereign state/states should be allowed to do so and willingly confederated with the new federal Ethiopia. Thinking only about the independence of Tigray and ignoring the rest of Ethiopia is like throwing the baby with the bathwater and TPLF must lead and allocate the required resources to restructure the whole Ethiopia.
Thirty years ago, TPLF/EPRDF decided to govern Ethiopia from Addis Ababa, Menelik palace. That decision separated TPLF from its home base Tigray, marginalized Tigray from development and we all remember how that worked against TPLF during the Oromia riots. The physical separation of TPLF from its home base also made TPLF weak since it was not replenishing the energy it needed from the Tigray people.
Based on historical contribution Axum played as a corner stone of Ethiopia and knowing the fact that TPLF has to be always within the Tigray people to be effective in a sustainable manner, it is mandatory that the new Ethiopia that will be established under the leadership TPLF to have its head offices established in the historic city of Axum . Addis Ababa must be a “Federal State” within the new Ethiopia and continue as a political, diplomatic, and commercial center and metropolitan diversified city serving all the citizens of the new Ethiopia in an equitable manner without any special claim from Oromos or Amharas. The following are three possible paths Tigray may have to take for its future but option 2 is preferable.
Option 1: Keep existing Federal Ethiopia as is but move the seat of the federal government to Mekelle immediately and to Axum within 5 years
This option does not meet the aspiration of those federal states that are determined to establish sovereign nation, but it is the low-risk path to sustain the territorial integrity of Ethiopia. Enhanced empowerment of the Federal states, improved democracy and establishing a culture of zero tolerance and effective controlling system for corruption may help for this structure to be acceptable by the Ethiopian people.
Option 2: Establishment of “Federated/Confederated Ethiopia” with Tigray as one of the federal states of Ethiopia and Axum as a capital city
- Establish new Federal Ethiopia with all willing states ( big and small) that want to remain as part of Ethiopia with Tigray as its nucleus and Axum as its capital city. Smaller regions such as Gambelia, Benishangul-Gumz, Kimant, Agew, Welayta, etc could be part of the new federal Ethiopia.
- Allow Oromia, Amhara, Afar, Sidama and Somalia to be sovereign states ( if they demand for it) but willingly confederate them with the new Federal Ethiopia.
- Tigray as the nucleus of the new Federal Ethiopia will ultimately become the political/democratic, cultural, economic and a technology center of the Horn of Africa within the next 20 to 30 years and one of the anchors and pillars of the Confederated Ethiopia. Tigray as the center of the new Federal Ethiopia shall always be in charge and in control of the army and security of the new Federal Ethiopia and have a MOSSAD like intelligence unit that safeguards Tigrayans and their interests both in Tigray and elsewhere. The confederation could have a fully integrated & liberalized boundary, economy, monetary policy and common currency & passport and cross utilization and joint development of strategic infrastructure like electric power, multimodal transportation, education, etc. Since Oromos have a dream of establishing a sovereign state, Tigray and Oromia could play the leading role in transforming Federal Ethiopia to Federated/Confederated Ethiopia.
Option 3: Independent Tigray with Axum as a capital city.
- If the above Option 1 and 2 are not possible, the fallback scenario is the establishment of an independent Tigray legally as per the existing constitution and get recognition by United Nations through the sponsorship of post–Isaias Eritrea or Ethiopia. Independent Tigray could establish of a confederation with Eritrea to build critical mass which could ultimately evolve to Confederated Ethiopia by integrating additional willing states in the Horn of Africa. This option will be more challenging to achieve as the international community and the United Nations may not support it as it affects the territorial integrity of the existing Ethiopia. A small land locked Tigray surrounded by genocidal neighbors could also face the fate of Ukraine in the long run and may not be viable and sustainable. All the investment and sacrifice in blood and sweat our ancestors invested in the present Ethiopia including the investment by TPLF and Tigrayans over the last three decades could also be wasted.
-