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Poll: can ENDF defeat TDF without Afar, Fano & Eritrea support?

Poll ended at 01 Feb 2022, 17:23

No
52
87%
Yes
7
12%
I don‘t know
1
2%
 
Total votes: 60

ethioscience
Member
Posts: 4102
Joined: 01 Nov 2019, 17:37

Poll: can ENDF defeat TDF without Afar, Fano & Eritrea support?

Post by ethioscience » 30 Jan 2022, 17:23

No
Yes
I don‘t know

Abere
Senior Member
Posts: 15482
Joined: 18 Jul 2019, 20:52

Re: Poll: can ENDF defeat TDF without Afar, Fano & Eritrea support?

Post by Abere » 30 Jan 2022, 17:32

ethnoscience, If you don't mind I would like to qualify your question in my own way. That is,

What percentage of the victory over TPLF is due to Fano, Afar and Eritrea?

I would guess 85 % of the victory over TPLF is due to Fano and Afar. And you can figure out how much of the remaining 15 % is due ENDF

---- ENDF is just taking the credit, unfortunately it is ENDF that is complain others are competing for recognition while they just did not want other than peace for the country. When I say ENDF I mean PP/OLF.

Asmara
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Posts: 1404
Joined: 24 May 2007, 05:09

Re: Poll: can ENDF defeat TDF without Afar, Fano & Eritrea support?

Post by Asmara » 30 Jan 2022, 18:23

Abere wrote:
30 Jan 2022, 17:32
ethnoscience, If you don't mind I would like to qualify your question in my own way. That is,

What percentage of the victory over TPLF is due to Fano, Afar and Eritrea?

I would guess 85 % of the victory over TPLF is due to Fano and Afar. And you can figure out how much of the remaining 15 % is due ENDF

---- ENDF is just taking the credit, unfortunately it is ENDF that is complain others are competing for recognition while they just did not want other than peace for the country. When I say ENDF I mean PP/OLF.
Would like to modify your question (or statement) further.
Whether we like it or not the lions share goes to Eritrea. The near collapse of TPLF is due to the massive assault it sustained at the hands
of the Eritrean army (hence why TPLF was so mad at Eritrea). Yes - Afars and Amhara's Fano have done their fair share but without Eritrea's swift intervention we would be talking about a different scenario now.

Sadacha Macca
Senior Member
Posts: 12808
Joined: 22 Feb 2014, 16:46

Re: Poll: can ENDF defeat TDF without Afar, Fano & Eritrea support?

Post by Sadacha Macca » 30 Jan 2022, 19:24

You act as if, the afar and amara, had a choice. the tplf invaded their lands, they had to fight. and still have to.

but the biggest help came from the strong, intact, eritrean forces from the north. unlike the endf which crumbled and had to be reorganized, once the tigrayan elites troops within it were kicked out, the eritrean forces remained ready, strong, and entered into the fray to smash the tplf.

euroland
Member+
Posts: 7957
Joined: 08 Jun 2018, 12:42

Re: Poll: can ENDF defeat TDF without Afar, Fano & Eritrea support?

Post by euroland » 30 Jan 2022, 19:55

Excellent point!

There are many Ethiopians such as Abere who desperately try to forget or minimize the Eritreans’ major input in decimating the well armed, well-trained and had great military plan at hand, the Weyane forces.

The Fano were able to reach the North Gonder aka Welqait-Humera area after the Eritrean forces already chased away the Weyanes from there. With the help of the well armed Eritrean forces, they were able to consolidate the remaining lands in their hand.

The Afaris are good fighters but weren’t involved until they were attacked by the Weyane after the Weyanes were given second life by the incompetent Abiy’s military leadership. Thus, the Afaris involvement came later.

The ENDF was ill trained and ill prepared to stand alone even if it wasn’t attacked first and its equipment was confiscated. The Weyane purposely put the weak none Tigrean officers in the Northern command aka Tigray. Almost all of the Northern command leaders were Tigreans themselves. Once the Northern command were attacked from within, almost their entire officers were captured and their entire armament was confiscated. The luck once fled to Eritrea only cloth on their back, in some cases, not even clothes in their back.

Now, here the Eritrean forces, who had known Weyane’s plan in advance, waiting at the border for order to come from the central command to attack and reverse the Weyane’s quick gain in days. Once the order came on Nov. 6, the Eritrean forces launched counter attack in 5 fronts and within 24 hours, Tigrean main cities in the north were captured. Four days later, the entire major cities of Tigray, except Mekele fell under the Eritrean forces. The Weyane had lost it main and huge forces, equipment and logistics to the Eritreans and only few scape with their lives and fled south ward to regroup in Mekele. Days later, even Mekele wasn’t safe from the strong Eritrean forces attacks, therefore, they fled to Temben deserts. Only then the ENDF was able to regroup, rearmed (by Eritreans) and become the face of the “victory” since it doesn’t look politically and diplomatically for the Eritreans to claim the victory. If they has done that…first of all, it would made the Abiy government look really bad in the eyes of Ethiopians and the world. Secondly, the US would have find an excuse to attack the Eritrean forces in Eritrean for “invading its neighbor”.

We don’t really care of the ungrateful people take all the credit they want but the Ethiopians who were there knows the truth.

Asmara wrote:
30 Jan 2022, 18:23
Abere wrote:
30 Jan 2022, 17:32
ethnoscience, If you don't mind I would like to qualify your question in my own way. That is,

What percentage of the victory over TPLF is due to Fano, Afar and Eritrea?

I would guess 85 % of the victory over TPLF is due to Fano and Afar. And you can figure out how much of the remaining 15 % is due ENDF

---- ENDF is just taking the credit, unfortunately it is ENDF that is complain others are competing for recognition while they just did not want other than peace for the country. When I say ENDF I mean PP/OLF.
Would like to modify your question (or statement) further.
Whether we like it or not the lions share goes to Eritrea. The near collapse of TPLF is due to the massive assault it sustained at the hands
of the Eritrean army (hence why TPLF was so mad at Eritrea). Yes - Afars and Amhara's Fano have done their fair share but without Eritrea's swift intervention we would be talking about a different scenario now.

Abere
Senior Member
Posts: 15482
Joined: 18 Jul 2019, 20:52

Re: Poll: can ENDF defeat TDF without Afar, Fano & Eritrea support?

Post by Abere » 30 Jan 2022, 21:18

Asmara,

---I would like to add some clarification here. I am NOT minimizing the role Eritrean army at all. The way I based my intuitive guess is by looking at the war into two terms, Term 1 is before ENDF pulled out of Meqelle and Term 2) After ENDF pulled Meqelle. My inference is based on Term 2( After pulled out of Meqelle).

--- Certainly, in the first phase the role of Eritrean Army was very huge. The Eritrean army clothed the naked ENDF army who were survivors of TPLF massacre in the North command and also were the one that entered in Tigray to help in taking out most wanted thugs like Seyoum Mesfin et al. The Eritrean army since Tigrigna speakers were very helpful in the operation. At the same time Fano played significant role in freeing the besieged ENDF from the TPLF. The first phase was very formidable and Eritrean army honestly took the virginity of TPLF. In the first Term of the war, Afar army were not in the picture and that was how the question implies. Afar army came in the second term of the war after Abiy Ahmed suddenly left Meqelle.

--- In the second term of the War, as Isaias Aferwoqi confirmed in his recent interview, Abiy Ahmed blindsided him and mysteriously pulled out of Meqelle without Isaias's knowledge. As a result it looks that Eritrea did not want to commit its army to stay in Tigray (other than in territories awarded by the court) so as to keep its army out of harms way. Thus, the role of Eritrean army was not conspicuous or visible when TPLF got a free ride all the way from Korem to Debre-Berhan. The TPLF's excursion was vey much facilitated by Abiy Ahmed discouraging Amhara people not raise arms. When the secrete deal between Abiy Ahmed and TPLF failed, Abiy Ahmed later called for Amhara to do everything at their disposal and Amhara Fano got go a head resulting chasing TPLF all the way from Debre-Berhan to Alamata again , just in less than a week. Afar people did the same miraculous attack. I think it is fair, that the 2nd term was much of the fight between Fano and TPLF; Afar army and TPLF with minimal support form ENDF, because ENDF was almost none existed diminished in size and moral by TPLF; and also controlled by saboteurs. Had Eritrean army involved in the Term 2 war, TPLF woul never ever cross beyond Maichew and if crossed TPLF would not be at Meqelle now, would have been wiped out. And Tigray would have been a peaceful place. Abiy Ahmed deliberately blindsided Isaias Afewroq, thus even the small victory we have now is due to Fano and Afar army, not because of ENDF or Abiy Ahmed.




Asmara wrote:
30 Jan 2022, 18:23
Abere wrote:
30 Jan 2022, 17:32
ethnoscience, If you don't mind I would like to qualify your question in my own way. That is,

What percentage of the victory over TPLF is due to Fano, Afar and Eritrea?

I would guess 85 % of the victory over TPLF is due to Fano and Afar. And you can figure out how much of the remaining 15 % is due ENDF

---- ENDF is just taking the credit, unfortunately it is ENDF that is complain others are competing for recognition while they just did not want other than peace for the country. When I say ENDF I mean PP/OLF.
Would like to modify your question (or statement) further.
Whether we like it or not the lions share goes to Eritrea. The near collapse of TPLF is due to the massive assault it sustained at the hands
of the Eritrean army (hence why TPLF was so mad at Eritrea). Yes - Afars and Amhara's Fano have done their fair share but without Eritrea's swift intervention we would be talking about a different scenario now.

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