Mereja.Forum

Many Ethiopians are calling for ENDF to march to Mekele and destroy TPLF once and for all. At the same time, PP and the government are hinting at a negotiated settlement which is making many Ethiopians very angry. Many Ethiopians don't seem to understand the dilemma the Abiy government is in.

From pure military perspective, it is by now clear that ENDF could march to Mekele in reasonably short amount of time. But administrating Tigray and destroying TPLF is not that easy as many Ethiopians believe due to the wide support TPLF still enjoys in Tigray. PM Abiy is very aware of the fact that last time even officials in the transitional government that was appointed by him were recruiting and sending Tigrean youth to Qola Tembien, helping TPLF get access to medication and diverting aid to TPLF fighters. With such deep-rooted and wide-ranging support from the people, it is not only impossible to eradicate TPLF from Tigray but also doesn't make any sense at all.

Trying to free TPLF from TPLF just doesn't make sense, one can argue. Of course the people of Tigray and TPLF are not the same but TPLF still enjoys a wider support in Tigray. Until a time in the future when a substantial part of the people of Tigray yearn and struggle to be free from the yoke of TPLF, it is foolishness to try to free them from TPLF. The government of PM Abiy seems to understand that it can't do much to free the people of Tigray from TPLF. The naive assumption is completely destroyed during last time when the federal government naively tried to free Tigreans from TPLF. PM Abiy seems this time to be willing to let the people of Tigray live under TPLF for whatever amount of time they wish.

Another aspect that PM Abiy seems not willing to do this time is to take all the burden of supplying aid to Tigray and repair infrastructure that cost the federal budget up to 100 billion Birr, 10 times more than the Tigray budget. PM Abiy seems this time to have no willingness to invest so much in Tigray and shoulder the burden of supplying aid and building infrastructure. That was done in hopes to win the hearts and minds of Tigreans from TPLF but PM Abiy seems now to realize that this attempt has failed and is now not willing to shoulder any responsibility in Tigray.

Alongside the economic burden, trying to administer Tigray also comes with huge western media campaign of crying about genocide and what not. PM Abiy and his government this time seems not to want to deal with this mess too. Even though Mekele could come under ENDF fairly easily, PM Abiy and his party seems to not have the appetite for administrating Tigray for the above reasons among others. PM Abiy's government this time seems to be keen to leave all the burden of administrating and feeding Tigray at the shoulder of TPLF.

So what options are left for the federal government if administrating Tigray is not an option?

Well another alternative is to have a negotiated settlement with TPLF and let TPLF officially shoulder the burden of administering Tigray. In my view this is very hard to achieve for the many differences the two parties have starting from disputed areas, handing over criminals, compensation, recognizing each others' authority etc. When one adds the cultural aspect of both sides, i.e. a culture that sees a compromise as a defeat and that despises losers, I don't see too much chance of success for a negotiated settlement.

What most likely will happen is a no-war, no-peace stalemate. The government will continuously try to destroy TDF's military capability to launch any attacks. It also tries to secure its defensive borders around Gira kasso mountains in Raya and Tekeze river in Wolkait. It will then allow aid supplies and "light" budget into Tigray that is just enough for essential services. The moment TPLF starts any attacks, it will meet with heavy military responses and also budget cuts. This is the most likely scenario that will be reality in the near future.

But even with this no-war no-peace scenario, the federal government has to deal with the endless negative propaganda from TPLF and its attempts to destabilize the federal government by instigating violence between communities and ethnic groups and training and arming other rebel groups in other parts of Ethiopia.

The Abiy government soon has to make tough decisions and whatever decisions it may make, it most likely finds itself in a dilemma.
It's damned if it tries to control and administer Tigray, and it's damned if it doesn't!

I see two key logical flaws in your hypothesis:

1) ignoring the porous nature of the PP itself, which in turn placing ENDF at risk, and most importantly the neighboring regions, in a no war no peace scenarios. Tplf has ammased extensive experience in bribing people and this time around they very people of hodams and tribalists. By this, tplf would be able to manage to take offensives and get an exit cirdor (even if its short lived) to get the necessary defense materials from their enablers. So, this is a not to think of

2) prelature withdrawals from Tigray has costed a lot in the Amhara and Afar than the Tigray region itself. Doingvso again means to keep the neighboring regions in perpetual security risk, which might fire back and cost Abiy himself. Especially when the arguments on the fact that OPP is behind the sabotages on the efforts to completely finish tplf are growing Among the immediate victims of the war. To some extent, such arguments hold water in the sense that mainly the Amhara region needs to be weakened while oromia keeps engaged in building its economy and defense capability. This is a a public secret that some of the OPP are in favor of keeping Tigray and Amhara in constant war for setup!d political gains. I am afraid that unintended political event (most likely destructive) will emerge if Abiy is bending to fulfil the interest of OPDO through which extending his power. By the way, many in the OPDO camp do not want olf and tribal politics be touched. They know that if the Tigray war is settled very soon, other forces would turn their eyes to olf/shene

In my view, there is a very simple solution to the Tigray case: install a military adminstration for the period a viable political environment is restored in Tigray. ENDF should administer Tigray for a period of like 3 to 5 years. One of the reason ENDF was attacked in Tigray (that led to the unilateral ceasefire and withdrawal) is that ENDF was stationed temporarily and thus the locals knew that they will be targeted by tplf when ENDF leaves. But if the locals know that ENDF is there to administer, they will feel more secured and attempt to screen out tplf elements.

In addition to this, I think Abiy must spend money for PR. Sometimes, he is more of a parot that to be someone with substances. Anyone can shout Ethiopia day in and day out but if no substances it would mean nothing other than to catch public attentions. Mind that, other forces such as fano and afar security forces have played a tremendous role in this recent offensives which Abiy and OPP try to hijack

So, am Afraid that Abiy is going to commit another huge musraje and this time around the resulting consequences would be based on both political and economic crisis

Ah, I forgot one very important thing: the longer you drag this war, the risk of foreign involvement will be higher. Abiy's leadership skill is once again put under test

Ok, it is now official. The federal government just announced that it has halted the advances of ENDF into Tigray.
Interesting to note that the government gives the people of Tigray and their support for TPLF as the main reason for this decision.
As I mentioned above this decision is not popular and not the best since there is in my view no best decision in this case but I think this is a wise decision.

kibramlak wrote: ↑

23 Dec 2021, 07:24

kibramlak, your suggestion trying to police Tigray with ENDF has already been tried and failed for many reasons. For once ENDF is trained for conventional war and not for policing cities and weredas and second as I have already mentioned this will only expose ENDF's personnel and their hardware for attacks and also bribes of higher officers by aid organizations as we have witnessed last time.

Blueshift wrote: ↑

23 Dec 2021, 08:47

Blueshift, I think you don't know the magnitude of the damage TDF endured on different battlefields. To even think TPLF will willingly retreat from capturing Addis and from grabbing power also shows your misunderstanding about the nature of TPLF and how it attaches high value to 4kilo. And lastly, to think that TPLF accepted not only losing wolkait and access to Sudan but also now Alamata Raya don't add up. I can only say to you what you said to me last time at the start of ENDF offensive 3 weeks ago: ላም አለኝ በሰማይ ወተቷን የማላይ TDF's backbone is broken, at least for now. It has lost thousands of its fighters and most of its hardware. That is just fact!

Misraq wrote: ↑

23 Dec 2021, 09:10

Misraq, I mostly agree with your assessment of the mistake of PM Abiy government last time but I still think your assessment doesn't go deep enough to understand the magnitude of TPLF support in Tigray and what it takes to administer the region. The government may find some loyalist Tigreans for some offices but to properly function as a regional government it needs Liyu Hail, militias, police force and many loyal public servants. Unless you have a substantial amount of the population resenting and opposing the TPLF rule, it will be very hard to get all this loyal people. And without security organs and the public servants etc. it will be impossible to properly administer a region. If the government wants to administer Tigray then it should wait until there is a substantial resistance against TPLF rule in Tigray otherwise it will fail again.

From the vidio I just saw (posted by free-tembien), it seems that Abiy has ordered to stop advances to Mejele. One can't explain this unless it is a stup!d political motives with OPP. The nan is going from hero to zero (rather negative coz because of his unexplained decisions, he put the Amhara and Afar regions to all sorts of calamity). Old habit dies hard. He was like a pastor and maybe repeating it again. After all credits to recent offensives must go to fano and Afar forces. Abiy was capitalizing on the successful offensives of these two impeccable forces. Unintended and undesirable political dynamics may energe. Oh God forbid

ይህ ከሆነ PP ነፃነት ሳይሆን ስልጣን ነው የሚፈልገው። ሌላው ODP-PP ነው ማለት ነው። ለትግራይ 10 ቢልዮን ብር ለ 3 ወር ሲመድብ ጥንት የወሎን እና አፋርን 100 እጥፍ ንብረት አስጠፍቷል። ትግሬ እርጉዝ ከነጽንሱ ወላድ ከነሽንት ጨርቁ አንጠልጥሎ ወሎ እና አፋር ውስጥ ሲጨማለቅ ከርሞ አሁን ደግሞ መለሶ እንድጨማለቅበት ይፈልጋል በእራሱ የማይተማመነው የ PP ፓርቲ ስልጣን እንጅ ነጻነት የማይፈልገው:: Folks who make un necessary excuses and pretexts to look PP's decision that it is done with the fight are TOTALLY wrong. I will ask you this question. As of now (factoring in PP's decision ) who won the war, TPLF or PP? If this question is for me, TPLF has officially won the fight. Their fight was result based and they got the result. As to OD-PP their were noisy, if this is the end game, they got nothing other than causing devastation to Wollo and Afar. I mark based on result, not based on noise or style (drone, red uniform, etc. etc.) ውታፍ አትንቀሉ፡ እውነት ተናገሩ።

Occupying Tigray, would not be worth it, in terms of the blood and treasure that would be expended in order to do so. Had there been significant opposition to the TPLF in Tigray, then perhaps, it maybe worth it. Since that is not the case, it's better to strengthen the defense of the regions bordering Tigray, and prepare for any eventualities. Keep them trapped in their region and let's see how things play out. They are not in a position to sustain a protracted war and they themselves know it.
What have they achieved? Besides losing the souls of tens of thousands of tigrayan youth? Someone please explain what tangible goals or achievements they have to show for their war?
Blaming Abiy for the TPLFs actions is silly because the TPLF has been stashing weapons for decades knowing very well that it'd have to retreat to Tigray eventually since their grip on power, similar to their recent war, was/is not sustainable. That's why they began to redraw the maps prior to the Badme war, including large parts of Eritrea in their map of Tigray, because they wanted to go ahead and *try* to annex a port and then declare their so called republic of Tigray as an independent state.
That failed just as their recent incursions failed. Most of their elites are dead, captured, on the run, etc. Tigray is in shambles and surrounded by hostile neighbors and more... Can that be called a success story?
Of course the war negatively effected the infrastructure and lives of their neighbors, the Amhara and Afar too, but by far the tigrayans and their land lost and the bulk of the blame goes to their own elites who failed them and used them as pawns, without them realizing it. Well, some probably did, but not enough of them to make a difference or to avert that calamitous war.

በመሰረቱ ሁላችሁም የምትሏቸው ነገሮች ችግሩን ከተለያየ አንግል ይገልጸዋል ። ይህም የሆነው ግዙፍ እና ውስብስብ (ኮምፕሌክስ) ችግር ስለሆነ ነው ። ለምሳሌ ይህን ወይይት የጋባዘው ሁኔታ ራሱ ሰርዊቱ ድምበር ላይ ስለቆመ ነው ። መቀሌ መግባቱ ከመፍትሄዎቹ አንዱ ብቻ ነው ። እኔ ሁላችሁም የምስማማቸው አንዳንድ መፍትሄዎች አሉ። እስቲ ነገሮቹን አንድ ባንድ እኛቸው።

አንድ፣ ከዚህ በኋላ ኢትዮጵያ በትግሬ ችግር ላይ ምን ታድርግ የሚለው ጥያቄ በንዴት፣ በችኮላ፣ በነጠላ እይታ መወሰን የለብትም ፤ ስለሆነም ጦሩ ጋብ አድጎ በችግሩ ላይ ብሄራዊ አስተያየት መሰብሰቡ ትክክል እና ብስል ዘዴ ነው ።

ሁለት፣ አሁን የቀረ የሚመስለኝ የበቀል ምላሽ ነው ፤ ትግሬ ውስጥ ገብተን እነሱ እንዳደረጉት እኛ አጸፋ ማወራረጃ ውድመት እናድርግ አናድርግ የሚለው የመጀምሪያ ጉዳይ ነው። አሁን እየሆነ ያለው ያ አይደለም፤ ይህ ባለመሆኑ የሚናደዱ ብዙ ሰዎች እንዳሉ ግልጽ ነው ።


ሶስት፣ ትህነግ ከዚህ በኋላ ጦርነት ማድረግ የማይችልበት ቁመና ላይ ወስኖ መያዝና ትህነኝ እንደ ድርጅት ማጥፋት ይለያያሉ ። እነዚህ ሁለት አላማዎች ፤ መግታት (ኮንቴይን ማድረግ ና ጨርሶ ማጥፋት የሚሉት በደምብ መለካትና መመዘን የሚያሻቸው ናቸው ። ከሁለቱ ቀላሉ መግታት የሚለው ነው ።


አራት፣ ኢትዮጵያም ሆነች የአቢይ መንግስት ቆሻሻው የትግሬ ፖለቲካን ሳይኮሎጂ ውስጥ ገብቶ፣ ትግሬን አስተካክላለሁ የሚል ፍጹም የተሳሳተ ጅል ውሳኔ ሊኖር አይገባም። ከሞላ ጎደል ትግሬዎች ቀውሳቸውን ራሳቸው ሃላፊነት ወስደው መፍታት አለባቸው ። ስለሆነም ምን ምን መደረግ እንዳለበት ባናውቅም፣ መሆን የሌለበት ነገር ኢትዮጵያን በፍጹም ለተራዘመ የትግሬ ቀውስና መፍትሄ አልባ ለሆነው የትግሬ ጉዳይ አለመዳረግ ነው ። ከዚያ በመልስ ብዙ ሊደረጉ የሚችሉ ነገሮች ስላሉ ክሬቲቭ የሆነ የልተቻኮለ ሂደት መፈለግ ነው ።

አምስት፣ ሰራዊቱ በትግሬ ዙሪያም ሆነ ትግሬ ውስጥ የንቅናቄና ተግባር ነጻነቱን ጠብቆ እሱ በመረጠው መንገድና መሳሪያ ማድረግ ያለበትን ማድረግ የሚያችለው አደረጃጀት ገምቶ ሁሉም አይነት ኢመደባዊ ዉጊያ መጠቀም አለበት ። ቁም ነገሩ ቀላል ነው ፤ ጁንታው እንዳያሰራራ ማድረግ እስከ መደምሰስ ያለው እርምጃ ነው ።

ስድስት፣ የኢትዮጵያ 100% ጦር አስገብቶ ትግሬን መያዝ የመዕራብ ሃይሎች በገራችን ላይ ማስነሳት ብቻ ሳይሆን ኢትዮጵያን በጦረነት ወጥሮ ለማደህየት ያቀዱት ፕላን ያሳካሉ ። እርግጥ እኛ ምንም አደረግን ምንም ዘመቻ አያቆሙም፣ የነሱ ችግር ቻይና፣ ሩሲያና ቱርክ ስለሆኑ ። ግን እኛም ፍትሃዊ ክርክር ለማቀብ ስለሚረድን የትግሬ ቀውስ ባለቤት ከመሆን መጠንቀቅ አለብን።

ሰባት ፣ የትግሬ ሕዝብ የረሃብ፣ ችግር፣ ድርቀት፣ ትራማ፣ የፈረሰውን መልሶ መገንባት፣ የህዝቡ የመገመትና ለጥፋቱ ሃላፊነት የመውሰድ ፍላጎትና ችሎታ እጅግ እጅግ ዝቅተኛ ስለሆነ አቢይ ሞከረም አልሞከረ የትግሬ ሳይኮሎጂ ለብዙ ዘመን ስለሚቆይ ለዚያ ሁሉ ተወቃሽ ላለመሆን የትግሬ ችግር ሌላ አይነት ፍሬሚንግ የሚሻ ነገር ነው። ወደ ፊትም የግብጽና ም ዕራብ ጠላቶች እጃቸውን የሚያስገቡት በትግሬ ሳይኮሎጂ መሳሪያነት ነው ።

ትግሬ ወደ እራሱ፣ ወደ ውስጥ ማየት እስከ ሚማር ድረስ የትግሬ ችግር የትም አይሄድም!

ስምንት፣ ስለሆነም ሰርዊቱ ትግሬን በድፊት ቀለበት ከቦ በመቀመጥ እና ቴክኖሎጂ መር የሆኑ ድብደባዎች መጠቀም፤ ሁሉም አይነት ኢመደባዊ ዉጊያዎችን ማጦፍ እና ትግሬ ራሱ ያቦካውን ሊጥ ራሱ እንዲጋግር ማስገደድ ነው፣ እኔ ሚታየኝ መፍትሄ።

ሆረስ፥

---እነኝህ አንተ የዘረዘርካቸው ነጥቦች ቅድመ ሁኔታዎቻቸው ተሟልተው እውነት ለመሆን ያለ ድፍረት የአዝጋሚ ለውጥ ያህል የሚፈጅ ጊዜ ይወስዳሉ። ጊዜ በተፈጀ ጊዜ ደግሞ የተለየ ክስተት ይፈጠራል - ምክንያቱም ድርጊቶች በእኛ ምህዋር ብቻ የሚወሰኑ ስላልሆኑ። በመጀመሪያ ሁኔታዎች አስገዳጅ ከሆኑበት መንግስት ለምን መግለጫ መስጠት አስፈለገው? ለመድረስ ከሚፈልግበት ግብ ለመድረስ መስራት የሚገባውን እየሰራ መቆየት ይችል ነበር።ስለ ትግራይ ህዝብ ባህርይ መንግስት ከሚነግረን በላይ ህዝብ ያውቃል። ለትግራይ ህዝብ ነጻነት ማለት ሌሎች ኢትዮጵያዊያን ባርያ ሁነው ትግራይ ሌሎችን እስከ ዘረፈች ድረስ ብቻ ነው። ሊታመኑም አይችሉም። ይህ አንዱ የጦርነቱ ዘርፍ ነው የእነርሱም የባህላቸው ህዋስ ሴል ነው። አድስ ችግር ተደርጎ መወሰድ የለበትም።

---በምን መልኩ ኢትዮጵያዊያን ከትግራይ መርገመት ነጻ ይወጣሉ ለሚለው ማሰብ ይሻላል። ቆራጥ መሪ ያስፈልገናል። ልክ የሚያስገባ። በመሽኮርመም አሜሪካ አውሮፓ ወዘተ እንድህ ይለኛል የሚል የተምታታ እና በቅብዥር የሚመራ አመራር ትክክል አይደለም። ቦንብ ረግጠው ህይወታቸውን የሰው ጀግኖች ባሉበት በመንግስት ስልጣን ቁጭ ብለው የውጭ አገር መንግስት የሚፈሩ እንደት ነጻ ያወጣሉ። ለምን ምሽግ ቦንብ ጥሰው እንደገቡት እነርሱ በህይውታቸው አይቆርጡም። ብልህም ጀግናም ያልሆነ አመራር እንካ ድል በሞሰብ ተቀበል ብትለው ማመን ያቅተዋል - በእራስ መተማመን ችግር ስላለ። በደንብ መረጃዎችን ብትመለከት ነጻ የውጡት መሬቶች እራሱ የሚያምታታ ነው። ወያኔ ገና ከአማራ መሬቶች ቁጭ ብሎአል። Thus, Ethiopia does not have to re-invent the wheel, persist in fighting following a strategic move. Now, the government said it halted the move, so how is it going to say again it lifted the halt when for sure the TPLF will carry out a decisive attack? Who gave the Abiy government a blank check to spend as much Ethiopian lives as possible while it should not worth the life it spent last November 2020. This reckless move is again postponing it to another November 2021, may be if the PP government survives till then. To be honest, if Abiy Ahmed's PP is not honest to Ethiopians, particularly Amhara people, my guess is that Amhara people will dump him and let TPLF pass through; and you TPLF has Amhara behind it means, reaching Addis is a cake walk, Abiy Ahmed gone. Miscalculation after another miscalculation or conspiracy, this is typical insanity of PP-ODP. This ODP-PP act is anger some for most Ethiopians. Sadly, ውታፍ ነቃይ people are painting a rosy picture of this catastrophic move.

ሆረስ፥

---እነኝህ አንተ የዘረዘርካቸው ነጥቦች ቅድመ ሁኔታዎቻቸው ተሟልተው እውነት ለመሆን ያለ ድፍረት የአዝጋሚ ለውጥ ያህል የሚፈጅ ጊዜ ይወስዳሉ። ጊዜ በተፈጀ ጊዜ ደግሞ የተለየ ክስተት ይፈጠራል - ምክንያቱም ድርጊቶች በእኛ ምህዋር ብቻ የሚወሰኑ ስላልሆኑ። በመጀመሪያ ሁኔታዎች አስገዳጅ ከሆኑበት መንግስት ለምን መግለጫ መስጠት አስፈለገው? ለመድረስ ከሚፈልግበት ግብ ለመድረስ መስራት የሚገባውን እየሰራ መቆየት ይችል ነበር።ስለ ትግራይ ህዝብ ባህርይ መንግስት ከሚነግረን በላይ ህዝብ ያውቃል። ለትግራይ ህዝብ ነጻነት ማለት ሌሎች ኢትዮጵያዊያን ባርያ ሁነው ትግራይ ሌሎችን እስከ ዘረፈች ድረስ ብቻ ነው። ሊታመኑም አይችሉም። ይህ አንዱ የጦርነቱ ዘርፍ ነው የእነርሱም የባህላቸው ህዋስ ሴል ነው። አድስ ችግር ተደርጎ መወሰድ የለበትም።

---በምን መልኩ ኢትዮጵያዊያን ከትግራይ መርገመት ነጻ ይወጣሉ ለሚለው ማሰብ ይሻላል። ቆራጥ መሪ ያስፈልገናል። ልክ የሚያስገባ። በመሽኮርመም አሜሪካ አውሮፓ ወዘተ እንድህ ይለኛል የሚል የተምታታ እና በቅብዥር የሚመራ አመራር ትክክል አይደለም። ቦንብ ረግጠው ህይወታቸውን የሰው ጀግኖች ባሉበት በመንግስት ስልጣን ቁጭ ብለው የውጭ አገር መንግስት የሚፈሩ እንደት ነጻ ያወጣሉ። ለምን ምሽግ ቦንብ ጥሰው እንደገቡት እነርሱ በህይውታቸው አይቆርጡም። ብልህም ጀግናም ያልሆነ አመራር እንካ ድል በሞሰብ ተቀበል ብትለው ማመን ያቅተዋል - በእራስ መተማመን ችግር ስላለ። በደንብ መረጃዎችን ብትመለከት ነጻ የውጡት መሬቶች እራሱ የሚያምታታ ነው። ወያኔ ገና ከአማራ መሬቶች ቁጭ ብሎአል። Thus, Ethiopia does not have to re-invent the wheel, persist in fighting following a strategic move. Now, the government said it halted the move, so how is it going to say again it lifted the halt when for sure the TPLF will carry out a decisive attack? Who gave the Abiy government a blank check to spend as much Ethiopian lives as possible while it should not worth the life it spent last November 2020. This reckless move is again postponing it to another November 2021, may be if the PP government survives till then. To be honest, if Abiy Ahmed's PP is not honest to Ethiopians, particularly Amhara people, my guess is that Amhara people will dump him and let TPLF pass through; and you TPLF has Amhara behind it means, reaching Addis is a cake walk, Abiy Ahmed gone. Miscalculation after another miscalculation or conspiracy, this is typical insanity of PP-ODP. This ODP-PP act is anger some for most Ethiopians. Sadly, ውታፍ ነቃይ people are painting a rosy picture of this catastrophic move.

TPLF will shift the war from conventional to terror style hit and run. The murder of civilians in the rest of the country will continue. The pressure from the west will intensify blaming the Gov't for blockade. lethal weapons' will be smuggled in to Tigray to possibly shoot down drones and bombers.

It would have been preferable to further decapitate and morally break TPLF by pushing deep in to MeQelle and make a quick exit without the burden to administer the hellhole.

I actually thing its a good idea to just surround the TPLF and let them stew in Tigray. I doubt the ENDF will leave the Wolkiet region so the TPLF is surrounding on all sides by enemies. I'd be interested in seeing how Tigrayans respond to the idiotic things the TPLF has done in their name. What kind of consequences will the TPLF face for going into Amhara and Afar regions and accomplishing nothing but getting Tigrayans killed? There are always consequences to defeat.