Mereja.Forum

Horus wrote: ↑

12 Nov 2021, 03:39

Then world war three is upon us. China never will let that. They invest so much in Ethiopia, they will never allow war by the USA. And USA will never do that just they wanted to sell fear in to weak Abiy.

Zemen wrote,

Then world war three is upon us. China never will let that. They invest so much in Ethiopia, they will never allow war by the USA. And USA will never do that just they wanted to sell fear in to weak Abiy.
Top

I agree, the USA would never do that. But, China sacrificing itself for Ethiopia is the biggest joke I ever heard. Don't forget, the yellow man is very racist. BTW, Horus is a paranoid old man.

My guess US is not in position to orchestrate another make believe in the world stage. The world has changed so much since the invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Gadafi.
In Iraq’s case Washington managed to manipulate UN. The New York Times then journalist Judy Miller beat the war drum. In US the majority of Americans were onboard. Those who opposed the Iraq’s intervention were in minority.
The US that appointed itself as the world police might live in some US politicians and journalists mind, but not in the US population at large now.
Right now politicians who choose to avoid any foreign intervention are doing fine in US politics.
One of the selling point of the former president, Trump, during the 2000 campaign was he would not send US military to foreign war, and he would bring back those who were stationed overseas now. He did ok. A person who have not held any political office became the US president largely because he stressed his popular slogan America first.
Will the Biden administration convince the majority of Americans for the need for interfering in domestic Ethiopian politics ?
I pretty much believe that is not going to happen.
The Biden administration which will expect a total wipeout in the midterm election rather should focus in its domestic politics. There is a pretty good chance Republicans will be in majority in Senate and US House of Representatives after the next election.
One more thing : the world at large might no sit idle when a sovereign country is invaded without any authorization for doing so from the UN, no matter how incompetent it is right now.
The US adventure might entail consequences that might not be quantified right now.
The hands off Ethiopia slogan might be shared by the majority of our planet inhabitants if US chooses to make another adventure.
I repeat it will not.

Sam,

Your analysis would have made a lot of sense, if Ethiopia was an advanced country with a lot of military might. The idea of the US attacking Ethiopia is absurd. It won't happen. However, maintaining Ethiopia's integrity as a nation is part of US policy. Eritrea would never get that kind of protection. It makes sense since Ethiopia's demise would entail far greater fiasco for Africa. Remember, the Red Sea route is the busiest maritime corridor in the world. The case of Iraq was very different. But, if the US decides to take a military mission against Ethiopia, which is very unlikely, the conditions you stated above do not necessarily uphold. First of all, it would not involve conventional war. Meaning US ground soldiers would not be involved. But, then again, the Weyanes are doing very well on the ground. The best scenario would have been, Abbiy working with them facilitating food and other essential aid to the people of Tigray. If he really has been doing that, then document it. Argue for it and present it to the security council.

Blueshift, there will not be Ethiopia’s demise. There will be TPLF’s death, but not Ethiopia. My friend Ethiopia ‘s integrity as a “nation” is the responsibility foremost of the Ethiopian government, not US as you claimed.
If the US chooses to involve you claimed US ground forces are not involved. That suggests TPLF is doing the ground work while the US orchestrate with satellite and high tech the overthrow of the Abiy government. Ethiopians are pretty much aware of that.
Even in Somalia which has a very tiny fraction of the Ethiopian population, the US ground forces were involved.
As for the Weyannes doing fine, I have a very different understanding. The TPLF leaders are sacrificing the Tigrean kids for no reason.
You seemed to have bought much of the fake news ; it is not helpful.

It will be very unwise to interfere in the Ethiopian crisis. It will go from what is worse now to the worst. First, regardless of whatever support TPLF gets or who fights for TPLF, it is a cry over spilled milk. TPLF is dead, because it is hated across the country. The U.S. loving this hated group is not going to change anything. Now, the TPLF's propaganda war is ignored by everyone Ethiopian and any favoritism to TPLF will fail too, because People have spoken means God has spoken. It would be civil for the U.S. to support the Ethiopian mass or just stay out of Ethiopian business. Ethiopia is the sure Winner and TPLF is an assured Loser, in fact, it has already lost 3 years ago. However, we still call a few honest Tigres to wakeup and save the lives of teenager Tigres dying for the doddering dying people of Tsadikan and Debretsion. Already tens of thousands of teenage Tigre dead body piled up in the rough terrains of Wollo. Further inference will make it the worst. So, Tigres think for yourself and stop being agitated by wasteful behaviors of TPLF.

Sam,
Your very last point is the reality; by a process of going through the various scenarios, you arrived at what is currently going on - TPLF doing the ground work and US backing it behind, This is precisely the existing US overall strategy of indirect proxy policy.

Now , the rest of rational arguments all of you point out are just that rational, reasonable behaviors. That sort of philosophy of thinking is no more the only accepted dogma. Counter-intuitive, paradoxical, seemingly irrational thoughts and actions are in fact becoming more effective because they are creative and unanticipated.

So, the strong belief that US wouldn't invade Ethiopia because that would contradict its interest is not a factual statement. It is our assumption that follows from our own rational old school line of thinking. For fact, we don't know how US is thinking forward as a cyber age world superpower. Everything is changing - the nature war, diplomacy, economic relations , so forth.

It is true China and USA will not start a 3rd world war on account of Ethiopia. In fact,if it comes to that point, they will collude. Yes we owe China 14 billion $US but that is a small change in the scheme of global power struggle.

Hence, my opening point. The fact is there is already American invasion taking place in Ethiopia. There is already proxy war and irregular war being waged against Ethiopia. We are simply talking about the intensity and scope of these wars - military, political, economic, diplomatic and psychological wars. All of these are taking place. Direct military Vietnam type invasion is not the type of war we are dealing with any longer.

The last point is US party politics and the small circle of America elites who imagine, plan, and conduct wars. in other words, if the Pentagon decides for one reason or other that Ethiopia should be dismantled, divided, disrupted or its ambition and vision stopped, then the party in the white house and the folks in the congress are irrelevant. The national security elite will create war & destroy any country it doesn't like.

Horus, the US military is always under civilian leadership as you know . Without getting the go ahead from the executive or legislative branch, depending on the political atmosphere of the time, the Pentagon cannot act independently.
My fear is president Susan. She and colleagues might try to orchestrate coup using the CIA as a means.
But I believe such a try might only be successful if the government caught sleeping.
I think Abiy is well awake for the drama which might unfold.
It is however an interesting time.
Who on earth could have imagined four or five years ago, Ethiopia and Eritrea would be the focus of world attention.

Sam Ebalalehu wrote: ↑

12 Nov 2021, 11:58

Horus, the US military is always under civilian leadership as you know . Without getting the go ahead from the executive or legislative branch, depending on the political atmosphere of the time, the Pentagon cannot act independently.
My fear is president Susan. She and colleagues might try to orchestrate coup using the CIA as a means.
But I believe such a try might only be successful if the government caught sleeping.
I think Abiy is well awake for the drama which might unfold.
It is however an interesting time.
Who on earth could have imagined four or five years ago, Ethiopia and Eritrea would be the focus of world attention.

Sam,
Of course you know that the congress formulates foreign policy based on the intelligence its get from the national security elite and the president gets its advice and recommendation for war from the same pentagon folks.

https://moneybloodandconscience.com/author-bio/

Blueshift wrote: ↑

12 Nov 2021, 09:11

Zemen wrote,

Then world war three is upon us. China never will let that. They invest so much in Ethiopia, they will never allow war by the USA. And USA will never do that just they wanted to sell fear in to weak Abiy.
Top

I agree, the USA would never do that. But, China sacrificing itself for Ethiopia is the biggest joke I ever heard. Don't forget, the yellow man is very racist. BTW, Horus is a paranoid old man.

China won't do it for Ethiopia but for her own interested. Once they were burned in Libya and they will never ever let the US do anything to Ethiopia. You have to remember the USA power and control is diving around the world. When they sanctioned Eritrea, it took 30 minutes to pass the sanction but today, the Americans tried 12 times to sanction Ethiopia and still couldn't do it, why? because they are as powerful as once they were. USA dying.

There is a simple logic I fail to understand about this even if it doesn’t matter.

There is no government agency of the U.S. that can function without funding.

All government agencies of the U.S. that function are funded by American taxpayers.

If these two statements are correct, then it goes without saying that any U.S. government agency’s interference in the internal affairs of any other country is financed by U.S. taxpayers.

If this simple conclusion is valid, aren’t American voters in a position to demand of all those they vote for how they ensure that their tax money is not used to sanction interfering in the internal affairs of other countries?

Some are already talking about 2022 midterm elections. If American taxpayers aren’t complicit with their elected officials interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, they can demand of their candidates before they get in office how they account for their tax money.

ZEMEN got it right. Remember a few months back China hinted she had interest of protecting her projects in Ethiopia. Read between the lines.

ZEMEN wrote: ↑

12 Nov 2021, 07:52

Horus wrote: ↑

12 Nov 2021, 03:39

Then world war three is upon us. China never will let that. They invest so much in Ethiopia, they will never allow war by the USA. And USA will never do that just they wanted to sell fear in to weak Abiy.

That is cleary how they operate. It is not only on Ethiopia and its leadership. As you know threatening is cheaper both financially and in terms of losing soldiers than real war and violence.

If they come they will be defeated and their reputation will be in tatters than it is already the case.

ይህ ሁሉ የሚደለቀው የጦርነት ከበሮና የቢሆንስ ስሌት ለኢትዮጵያ ሕዝብ ዝግጅት እጅግ ከፍተኛ ዋጋ አለው። አይመጣምን ትተሽ ይመጣልን ያዢ ይባላልና። ግብጽ ልትወጋን እንደ ምትች ታሳቢ ማደግ፣ ሱዳን ልትወጋን እንደ ምትችል ታሳቢ ማድረግ እና አሜሪካ በጅ አዙር ወይ በቀጥታ ሊወጋን እንደ ሚችል (አሁን በለስላሳ ጩቤ እየወጋን ነው) ታሳቢ አድርገን ለአገር አቀፍ ሕዝባዊ ጦርነት መዘጋጀት አለብን፤ በሁሉም የውጊያ መስክና በሁሉም የጦር ግንባር !! ኢትዮጵያ የማንም ተላላኪ ያልሆነች ነጻ አገር ነች ስንል ለዚያ የሚከፈለው ዋጋ ይህን መሰል ዝግጁነት ነው። ታላቅነት በነጻ አይገኝም !!!

Naga,

You are naïve. The tax payers do not mind financing wars that benefit the country as a whole. In a global competition among the super powers, financing wars could be necessary to protect and expand democracy to the whole world. There is also competition.

There is an estimated 100 million arms in Africa (small and light), especially around the Horn, including Somalia, Ethiopia, Southern Sudan, the violent belt of Central Africa and many areas of West Africa. In some countries like Sudan, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, possession of guns is almost synonymous with the people’s cultural lives; almost everyone carries a personal weapon.[7] The undue availability of arms especially in illegal hands has continued to rob the continent of its peace and stability. The global competition for Africa in arms sales and proliferation of military bases is also another dilemma that has affected peace and stability in Africa.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/g ... ion-africa

Buleshiit - Snowflake ቆዳር ዓጋመ:

Stop littering the form with your running diarrhea. Merda ጻሕጻሒ ዓጋመ !!

So USA was promoting Democracy when it supported one of the worst Killers and dictators "Mobutu Sese Seko" of Zaire.

So USA was promoting Democracy when it overtly supported "South African White Supremacist Apartheid till the 1990s".

Now Go Puke and litter the form with your running diarrhea - ቆማል ቆንዳፍ ዓጋመ !!!

Merda ዓጋመ !!

ጻሕጻሒ ዓጋመ !!

ከዛብ ዋሒድ !!

Blueshift wrote: ↑

12 Nov 2021, 16:32

Naga,

You are naïve. The tax payers do not mind financing wars that benefit the country as a whole. In a global competition among the super powers, financing wars could be necessary to protect and expand democracy to the whole world. There is also competition.