(At least some) Western countries want a united Ethiopia under TPLF tutelage
Posted: 30 Oct 2021, 12:29
This is my personal theory and I accept this could be completely wrong
In my opinion at least some countries in the Western world like the USA want on the one hand to help the TPLF achieve victory and see Abiy toppled yet on the other hand they don't want Tigray to secede from Ethiopia. This could be down to two reasons:
1. The wider international community doesn't want any ethnic group in Africa to secede from any country in Africa. Rather Africa should remain made up of countries that has borders created by European colonial powers. This would mean only Somaliland and Western Sahara has a legitimate right to become independent nations
2. Those western countries want a unified Ethiopia that include Tigray in order to use Ethiopian military power to overthrow the Isaias regime in neighbouring Eritrea
I can see a situation whereby if TPLF topples Abiy a Tigrayan won't be the next official leader of Ethiopia but instead a non Tigrayan eg Oromo theoretically becomes the next ruler but in practice behind the curtains Tigrayans will really call the shots. This would be a repeat of between August 2012 and April 2018
In my opinion at least some countries in the Western world like the USA want on the one hand to help the TPLF achieve victory and see Abiy toppled yet on the other hand they don't want Tigray to secede from Ethiopia. This could be down to two reasons:
1. The wider international community doesn't want any ethnic group in Africa to secede from any country in Africa. Rather Africa should remain made up of countries that has borders created by European colonial powers. This would mean only Somaliland and Western Sahara has a legitimate right to become independent nations
2. Those western countries want a unified Ethiopia that include Tigray in order to use Ethiopian military power to overthrow the Isaias regime in neighbouring Eritrea
I can see a situation whereby if TPLF topples Abiy a Tigrayan won't be the next official leader of Ethiopia but instead a non Tigrayan eg Oromo theoretically becomes the next ruler but in practice behind the curtains Tigrayans will really call the shots. This would be a repeat of between August 2012 and April 2018