Trouble With Turkey
Jack Detsch
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was probably hoping for a no-drama visit to NATO’s headquarters in Brussels today, the last leg of his four-country trip through Europe. And there was bonhomie to go around, with handshakes, shoulder slaps, and a “family photo” with European defense chiefs. (The delegation of traveling press was herded into another room.)
But even as Austin and the Biden administration have wanted to pivot these kinds of meetings to the Defense Department’s priority (China), two topics have continued to dominate: the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which left European allies scrambling to get their diplomats and troops out of the country, and Turkey’s role, an ally that houses U.S. nuclear weapons and NATO early warning systems that is also engaging in a dangerous courtship with Russia.
Have it both ways. No, not a lot has changed since Turkey bought the Russian S-400 air defense system, forcing the United States to pull Ankara out of the F-35 fighter jet program. Turkey remains under U.S. sanctions, which officials at the time said were designed not to tip over the tepid Turkish economy.
But Turkish officials still want their just deserts for doing work on the F-35, which included helping design part of the fuselage. Specifically, they’re asking the United States for F-16 fighter jets that will help them backfill the gap left by the F-35’s loss. And if those U.S. warplanes aren’t delivered, Turkey’s top defense industry official, Ismail Demir—one of the officials blacklisted for the S-400 purchase—threatened to buy Russian fighter jets instead. (Reuters first reported that Turkey had asked the United States for 40 F-16 jets.) The Pentagon remains stuck in talks with Turkey’s government about how to resolve the F-35 dispute.
Under the surface. Not all of these tensions were on display in Brussels today. Ironically, as the relationship has gotten frostier, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has developed a reputation for being the easiest Turkish official to deal with, former officials and experts told Foreign Policy. But the relationship is definitely in trouble, and Biden has responded by giving Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other top officials very little face time.
The tussling over fighter jets could make an already strained dynamic among NATO allies even trickier to navigate.