THE WAR IN TIGRAY: DISINTEGRATION OR A PEACEFUL TRANSITION
Posted: 20 Oct 2021, 17:38
THE WAR IN TIGRAY: DISINTEGRATION OR A PEACEFUL TRANSITION
October 18, 2021
By Faisal A. Roble
Introduction
The Tigray war in northern Ethiopia could result in either a new political order where the Prime Minister eventually leaves office, or in the disintegration of the country. There are serious military, economic and political forces weighing heavily on Addis Ababa, whose combined impact could usher in a new political map and social contract.
The Tigray war that brought the economy of Ethiopia to a grinding halt
Until recently, Ethiopia’s GDP was averaging 10% growth with life expectancy trending upward and access to clean water and health facilities improving. However, the premature war which Prime Minister Abiy started in Tigray in November 2020 has brought the economy to a grinding halt.
After the war, the Bir lost ground following a politically inspired currency change in August 2020. As a consequence, the exchange rate is standing at 65 EB to $1 USD. Compounded by a 35% inflation, a GDP that is faltering at 2% per year, and a foreign debt which stands at 65% of the GDP, the IMF had to forego this year a reasonable projection for Ethiopia for 2021-2024. This comes on the heels of far-reaching layered sanctions to be imposed by the US and EU. Also, Ethiopia could lose its African Growth and Opportunity Access (AGOA), potentially impacting employment opportunities for over 1 million Ethiopians.
At face value, these moves are intentional to soften Prime Minister Abiy’s defiant edges and bring him to comply with the worldwide request to deliver food aid to the starving Tigrian.
If not, the West could consider opening a corridor for Tigray to avert what could otherwise parallel the 1984 famine which left 1.2 million dead. More disasters were averted in 1984 only after a worldwide airdrop was carried out. Either a corridor through Sudan must be opened for food or medicine delivery, or a massive airdrop, led by the US army, could be a way to avert famine.
Awaiting the decision to classify what had happened in Tigray as“genocide,” a no-fly zone should not be ruled out. Tigray has been under blockade for the last 6 months and food aid is not reaching starving people. The world in the past ignored the Somali region where a total blockade was imposed between 2007 and 2014 resulting in a far-reaching human crisis The same should not happen again.
Continue reading Wardheer News at https://wardheernews.com/the-war-in-tig ... ransition/
October 18, 2021
By Faisal A. Roble
Introduction
The Tigray war in northern Ethiopia could result in either a new political order where the Prime Minister eventually leaves office, or in the disintegration of the country. There are serious military, economic and political forces weighing heavily on Addis Ababa, whose combined impact could usher in a new political map and social contract.
The Tigray war that brought the economy of Ethiopia to a grinding halt
Until recently, Ethiopia’s GDP was averaging 10% growth with life expectancy trending upward and access to clean water and health facilities improving. However, the premature war which Prime Minister Abiy started in Tigray in November 2020 has brought the economy to a grinding halt.
After the war, the Bir lost ground following a politically inspired currency change in August 2020. As a consequence, the exchange rate is standing at 65 EB to $1 USD. Compounded by a 35% inflation, a GDP that is faltering at 2% per year, and a foreign debt which stands at 65% of the GDP, the IMF had to forego this year a reasonable projection for Ethiopia for 2021-2024. This comes on the heels of far-reaching layered sanctions to be imposed by the US and EU. Also, Ethiopia could lose its African Growth and Opportunity Access (AGOA), potentially impacting employment opportunities for over 1 million Ethiopians.
At face value, these moves are intentional to soften Prime Minister Abiy’s defiant edges and bring him to comply with the worldwide request to deliver food aid to the starving Tigrian.
If not, the West could consider opening a corridor for Tigray to avert what could otherwise parallel the 1984 famine which left 1.2 million dead. More disasters were averted in 1984 only after a worldwide airdrop was carried out. Either a corridor through Sudan must be opened for food or medicine delivery, or a massive airdrop, led by the US army, could be a way to avert famine.
Awaiting the decision to classify what had happened in Tigray as“genocide,” a no-fly zone should not be ruled out. Tigray has been under blockade for the last 6 months and food aid is not reaching starving people. The world in the past ignored the Somali region where a total blockade was imposed between 2007 and 2014 resulting in a far-reaching human crisis The same should not happen again.
Continue reading Wardheer News at https://wardheernews.com/the-war-in-tig ... ransition/