Was the 27 years TPLF invested on Ethiopia a loss?
Posted: 10 Oct 2021, 23:11
When Tigray was freed from Derg in the early 1990's and TPLF decided to enter to the Amhara regions, quite a number of TPLF fighters opposed the move and returned back to Tigray considering the fact " we have freed Tigray and we need to focus on establishing Tigray as a soverign and independent state". TPLF was challenged by this idea and opened free discussion within TPLF at different labels and forums. The concluding consensus was" If we do not topple Derg from it's power base , Addis Ababa, it will reorganize and re-invade us once again". After this consensus the rest is history. However, as we look back from the realities of today , I am sure so many Tigrayans may tend to regret that decision. In my view TPLF decision was right due to the following reasons:
- Ethiopia could have been disintegrated and the fate of Tigray also unknown, if TPLF did not take the responsibility to lead Ethiopia with the new constitution. It was right and farsighted to include Article 39 in the constitution as exit clause / provision.
- Nations and nationalities that were underprivileged have been empowered and could be strategic partners for Tigray, down the line once the ongoing dust and confusion is settled.
- It could have been difficult for Tigray to be recognized as independent state( similar to the fate of Somali Land).Eritrea's fate could have been also same.
- TPLF may not have established a democratic Tigray( may have end up as socialist dictatorship)
- May have difficulty in building global leadership experience , network and good will from the international community
- TPLF built irreplaceable capability and skill to establish and transform a nation.
- At this time Tigray and TPLF are well recognized globally ( specially as victims of genocide and government imposed famine) and this time Tigray could be recognized internationally relatively easily as a soverign state, specially if done per the constitution and amicably with the Ethiopian government.
Overall the 27 years were not wastage but investment for the future for TPLF to lead Tigray and shape the Horn of Africa. The acid test is "Will TPLF be able to establish a Tigray with a vibrant democracy and a zero tolerance to corruption" . If not Tigray will be another failed state as so many other African states including Eritrea.
- Ethiopia could have been disintegrated and the fate of Tigray also unknown, if TPLF did not take the responsibility to lead Ethiopia with the new constitution. It was right and farsighted to include Article 39 in the constitution as exit clause / provision.
- Nations and nationalities that were underprivileged have been empowered and could be strategic partners for Tigray, down the line once the ongoing dust and confusion is settled.
- It could have been difficult for Tigray to be recognized as independent state( similar to the fate of Somali Land).Eritrea's fate could have been also same.
- TPLF may not have established a democratic Tigray( may have end up as socialist dictatorship)
- May have difficulty in building global leadership experience , network and good will from the international community
- TPLF built irreplaceable capability and skill to establish and transform a nation.
- At this time Tigray and TPLF are well recognized globally ( specially as victims of genocide and government imposed famine) and this time Tigray could be recognized internationally relatively easily as a soverign state, specially if done per the constitution and amicably with the Ethiopian government.
Overall the 27 years were not wastage but investment for the future for TPLF to lead Tigray and shape the Horn of Africa. The acid test is "Will TPLF be able to establish a Tigray with a vibrant democracy and a zero tolerance to corruption" . If not Tigray will be another failed state as so many other African states including Eritrea.