Why bigger population pool and higher number of soldiers and armament may not bring the required result!
Posted: 07 Oct 2021, 14:21
As propagated by the genocidal media outlet , ESAT, few years ago it was claimed that 95m Ethiopians are fighting against 5 millions of Tigrayans and it is going to be an easy win for the majority and well resourced 95 m (Currently the Ethiopian population is estimated to be about 120 million and about 7 million+ Tigrayans). Abiy may have also assumed an easy win based on population difference and he also currently told us that he could mobilize easily a very huge army against Tigray( which we know he is doing it through intensive propaganda and by force).The fallacy of this simplistic statement is outlined below:
- The claim that 95 million Ethiopians are against Tigray is wrong as most of Ethiopians do not have any animosity against Tigrayans. It is expected that only about 3m to 5m Ethiopian's mostly from Amhara-Gondar may feel strong against Tigray but only about 500, 000 of them may see Tigray as existential threat and most of them blame that it is the government of Ethiopia that is trying to escalate the conflict of Amhara and Tigray for its political gains to weaken both of the historical and traditional allies.
- Among 5 million Tigrayans most of them ( including the ones in the diaspora) consider that the Tigrayans are under clear and present existential danger and are willing to give their life and any required resource to support the defensive war in a highly structured and organized matter..
- Overall the real fighting is not between 95 millions and 5 million but between less than one million non-Tigray Ethiopians( with huge capital and military hardware resource) and about 5 million highly organized and determined Tigrayans but with relatively a little resource( miliatry hard ware and capital).
- The source of the military hard ware for the Tigrayns is the Ethiopian army and that has been practically demonstrated on the ongoing war and the 17 years resistance struggle with the Mengistu Haile Mariam government. While the Amhara Fanos and militias complain that the government is not arming them with the required quantity and variety of military hard ware, the Tigrayan fighters waste no time to conquer and arm themselves from the Ethiopian army. That is not because Tigrayans are more brave than the Amharas but the existential threat that the Tigrayans perceive as a "minority", makes/force them to take and face any risk, pay the required sacrifice and assure to retain their history, values , independence, sustenance of continuity and future destiny (This is similar to the about 10 million Israel people survival secret among more than 400 million Arab population as a potential enemy)
- If we apply the Pareto principle to the above analysis calipered based on the perceived existential threat ( War is between 5m Tigrayans versus less than 1m non Tigrayan Ethiopians), 4 million Tigrayans dictate the end result of the war against less than 200,000 non Tigrayan Ethiopians). This fact explains why Tigray has been able to effectively resist the war with disproportionate size and military hardware of the that combined Ethiopia and Eritrea army , special forces, militia and UAE drones and financial support.
- The above analysis reveals the fact that the war will not be an easy win for the Ethiopian government and the result could be the opposite. In my view this war will not have any clear and clean winner and I have been calling for discussion and peaceful resolution for about three years. The pre-war political differences, post war damages and crises and the future of Tigray could be resolved in a peaceful manner with out prejudice to the legal issues that require UN involvement for the grave genocidal historic crimes committed against Tigray.
- The claim that 95 million Ethiopians are against Tigray is wrong as most of Ethiopians do not have any animosity against Tigrayans. It is expected that only about 3m to 5m Ethiopian's mostly from Amhara-Gondar may feel strong against Tigray but only about 500, 000 of them may see Tigray as existential threat and most of them blame that it is the government of Ethiopia that is trying to escalate the conflict of Amhara and Tigray for its political gains to weaken both of the historical and traditional allies.
- Among 5 million Tigrayans most of them ( including the ones in the diaspora) consider that the Tigrayans are under clear and present existential danger and are willing to give their life and any required resource to support the defensive war in a highly structured and organized matter..
- Overall the real fighting is not between 95 millions and 5 million but between less than one million non-Tigray Ethiopians( with huge capital and military hardware resource) and about 5 million highly organized and determined Tigrayans but with relatively a little resource( miliatry hard ware and capital).
- The source of the military hard ware for the Tigrayns is the Ethiopian army and that has been practically demonstrated on the ongoing war and the 17 years resistance struggle with the Mengistu Haile Mariam government. While the Amhara Fanos and militias complain that the government is not arming them with the required quantity and variety of military hard ware, the Tigrayan fighters waste no time to conquer and arm themselves from the Ethiopian army. That is not because Tigrayans are more brave than the Amharas but the existential threat that the Tigrayans perceive as a "minority", makes/force them to take and face any risk, pay the required sacrifice and assure to retain their history, values , independence, sustenance of continuity and future destiny (This is similar to the about 10 million Israel people survival secret among more than 400 million Arab population as a potential enemy)
- If we apply the Pareto principle to the above analysis calipered based on the perceived existential threat ( War is between 5m Tigrayans versus less than 1m non Tigrayan Ethiopians), 4 million Tigrayans dictate the end result of the war against less than 200,000 non Tigrayan Ethiopians). This fact explains why Tigray has been able to effectively resist the war with disproportionate size and military hardware of the that combined Ethiopia and Eritrea army , special forces, militia and UAE drones and financial support.
- The above analysis reveals the fact that the war will not be an easy win for the Ethiopian government and the result could be the opposite. In my view this war will not have any clear and clean winner and I have been calling for discussion and peaceful resolution for about three years. The pre-war political differences, post war damages and crises and the future of Tigray could be resolved in a peaceful manner with out prejudice to the legal issues that require UN involvement for the grave genocidal historic crimes committed against Tigray.