Abiy still thinks he can win an all out war with TDF based on his temporary victory of last year. The following are the reasons why that is not possible this time!
- His experienced army( including Isaias army) has been already depleted and the remaining defeated in the Tigray war, what he has now is inexperienced / frightened/humiliated ones.
- Last year, TPLF was overstretched facing multi-frontal surprise attack from full army( infantry, air,and mechanized) of Eritrea, Ethiopia, special forces of different states (ክልሎች) and Amhara militia and Fano, Somalia and United Arab Emirates drones. This time TDF is on a very strong position to free Western Tigray, Gondare, Bahirdar, Desse and Addis Ababa while defending Tigray from simultaneous multi-frontal attack.
- Last year, Tigray Special Forces did not have battle experience, ability/experience to use heavy weapons and create a dynamic and effective synergy between infantry and mechanized forces( Abiy started the all out war immediately after Tigray Special Forces conquered North Command heavy weapons). This time TDF is war hardened and able to use and create synergy using mechanized weapons in his hand
- Winning moral is very high for TDF. Abiy's intention to destroy the people of Tigray collectively using any means( genocide, ethinic cleansing, famine, rape etc) is very clear and every Tigrayan knows wining this war is mandatory for survival.
- All Tigrayans are mobilized toward winning the war and Tigray has the diplomatic and moral upper hand
- Abiy & Isaias and their allies are under diplomatic sanction and pressure and this time the whole world is watching what is happening. Last year they were able to hide their crimes for about three months.