The benefits of the return to territorial status quo ante in Tigray and Amhara regions for PM Abiy's government and the risks of prolonged war
some interesting views at Awate - I thought I'd share them . . . .
Ismail AA reply to haileTG
Selam haile TG and forumers,
In order for a hot war to change to a cold war, there has to be some approach that should provide an incentive to the protagonists. In other word, shoot to subdue an enemy should change to talk to win points at negotiating forum political and legal war. The ongoing conflict and senseless carnage in Ethiopia have transformed from a regular army versus civilian based paramilitary to militia versus militia warfare after the regular army has almost been neutralized after the debacle in Tigray.
Sooner than later, the war will spread to become savage multi-centered civil war run by marauding warlords. Ethiopian history had seen much of this in the past. Thus, Ethiopians should realize that the ultimate interest of their country surviving the ominous catastrophe of disintegration lies in listening to reasonable suggestions like the one the Americans have been floating. This is an incentive (boon) that provides opportunity that can help all stakeholders, the government in Tigray region included, to return to political and territorial status quo ante of the regions which the current constitution sanctions. At that point, upholding, revising or changing the constitution will be the business of all stakeholders; and not one between the Prosperity Party (under the garb of the Federal government) and the Tigray government.
haileTG reply to Ismail AA
Merhaba Ismail,
Happy weekend!
Thanks for capturing the essence of the risks ahead and the potential solution so clearly.
Looking at the whole picture, it is indeed a sad situation with no real winner at the end. The risks to Ethiopia also has dire implications for the region. Given the activities of OLA, in coordination with TDF, is also picking up, I am not sure whether the ENDF or TDF would be in a position to quell it once the destabilization potential reaches certain magnitude. Today, there were unconfirmed reports of skirmishes between Amhara militia and OLA units. As you know the Oromo-Amhara issue is also of its own center of gravity for destabilization.
The initial stated purpose of the war, law enforcement, is not even relevant today. PMAA decries it as time of "utmost need" for the country. Unfortunately, Eritrea has taken the wrong path instead, by helping the longevity of this conflict by allowing its armed forces into western Tigray. I wonder what the impact of such a dreadful decision will be in our long term relationship with post-conflict Ethiopia. I understand IA's personal concerns on the issues but that is a far cry from the point view of the risks posed.
I think that a prolonged conflict would be likely to make more damage than a short military solution. If the conflict drags on another six months, I would be hard to differentiate Arat Kilo from Villa Somalia.
Ismail AA reply to haileTG • a day ago
Selam haile TG,
The main purpose of AA and Amhara regional government seems to gradually suffocate the Tigray state government and its army by keeping on the blockade. They seem to be hoping this will give them time, and the powers such as the USA would be gradually persuaded by way of leverages from its allies such as Turkey to sway towards their side, and put pressure on TPLF to at least withdraw its expeditionary forces from Afar, and as well as from central and eastern Amhara leaving West Tigray under the control of the Amhara. If this would be their focus, I am afraid they are looking through very narrow trajectory.
In other words, they appear to being less worried about other problem spots you have mentioned and the emerging alliances and perhaps counter-alliances. Developments as these would make the USA and, even other powers such China and Russia, more concerned about the possibility of sustaining Ethiopia as element of balance in the region in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean sensitive geopolitical theatre of contention. If Abij and allies self-interest driven calculations would menace Ethiopia's current state of existence, the momentary stand of the USA resting on humanitarian concerns may change direction. I mean that it may settle on determining the risk enhancing side, especially if the current conflicts keep on multiplying and spreading to many zones like the Oromia and Somali nationalities, the later with its irredentist political roots. The USA, and the regional players behind it, may choose the lesser evil which may emerge as a policy of regime change in Addis Ababa.
To do that, the logistics needs may impose the search for easy geography and proximities it offers. Here comes the centrality of Sudan and its new relations with USA and allies like Egypt. The USA may want to stay on the humanitarian aspect, and while harvesting the politics its shields. It maybe pushed to pursue a policy that may target the very thing Abij Ahmed and his Amhara allies fear most, and that is the opening of a corridor from east Sudan to Tigray, on the one side, and on another, TDF military push towards the current disputed West Tigray.
Source http://awate.com/eritrean-leaders-sandc ... 5504146067
