What is the main driver for the continuation of the war? When will the war be effectively over?
Posted: 22 Aug 2021, 19:13
Here's a simple summary of the war by Haile at awate.com
haileTG Berhe Y • a day ago • edited
Selam Berhe,
If the Amhara regional government withdraws from western Tigray, the war is effectively over. That would be so because all parties would automatically lose any reason to continue the war.
1 - Amhara government will have no reason to fight Tigray region if the land issue is referred to arbitration. They have no other conflict.
2 - PMAA will not have the main support base from Amhara. Again, what would be his reason to fight? To uphold democracy? He can't justify armed suppression as a way to uphold democracy. So, he will have no reason to fight.
3 - TPLF can't justify waging a war to unseat a government. It would have to return to Tigray and engage in political dialog. The world would not support an armed undertaking to change the government.
4 - IA can't continue the war because PMAA and Amhara regional govts will no longer require his mercenary services and the UN will be against it any way.
So, all eyes are on Wolqait, Tsegedie and Kefta Humera. A region of roughly 400.000 people comprising 92% ethnic Tigrayans and 6% ethnic Amhara and 2% other. It was known as a region of Begemder province before the ethnic federalism but fell to Tigray region by the new federal constitution.
The land dispute is causing the Amhara to lend their support to the Unitarian PMAA and causes the Tigrayans to oppose PMAA's undermining of the federal arrangement.
If the land is resolved, the problem is resolved. All other issues can only be solved legally for there to be international support.
http://disq.us/p/2j0bp09
haileTG Berhe Y • a day ago • edited
Selam Berhe,
If the Amhara regional government withdraws from western Tigray, the war is effectively over. That would be so because all parties would automatically lose any reason to continue the war.
1 - Amhara government will have no reason to fight Tigray region if the land issue is referred to arbitration. They have no other conflict.
2 - PMAA will not have the main support base from Amhara. Again, what would be his reason to fight? To uphold democracy? He can't justify armed suppression as a way to uphold democracy. So, he will have no reason to fight.
3 - TPLF can't justify waging a war to unseat a government. It would have to return to Tigray and engage in political dialog. The world would not support an armed undertaking to change the government.
4 - IA can't continue the war because PMAA and Amhara regional govts will no longer require his mercenary services and the UN will be against it any way.
So, all eyes are on Wolqait, Tsegedie and Kefta Humera. A region of roughly 400.000 people comprising 92% ethnic Tigrayans and 6% ethnic Amhara and 2% other. It was known as a region of Begemder province before the ethnic federalism but fell to Tigray region by the new federal constitution.
The land dispute is causing the Amhara to lend their support to the Unitarian PMAA and causes the Tigrayans to oppose PMAA's undermining of the federal arrangement.
If the land is resolved, the problem is resolved. All other issues can only be solved legally for there to be international support.
http://disq.us/p/2j0bp09