Mereja.Forum

[sarcasm]

Amonth after a seeming breakthrough toward conflict de-escalation in the grinding war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and the associated humanitarian catastrophe, conflict and centrifugal dynamics have significantly escalated, eviscerating the country’s stability well beyond Tigray. After eight months of fighting and an increasingly effective insurgency, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) routed the federal Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) backed by neighboring Eritrea in Tigray. Facing a defeat, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared a unilateral ceasefire and ordered the government’s forces out of Tigray.


However, the windows for badly needed humanitarian access and negotiations between the Tigrayan leadership and the national government rapidly closed. The emboldened TDF has seized parts of the Afar and Amhara regions. In response to the ENDF meltdown, the prime minister intensified efforts to stand up regional ethnic-based militias. Yet Addis Ababa has severely limited capacity to control these paramilitary forces: Over time, they will pose a graver threat to Ethiopia’s stability, territorial integrity, and ethnic coexistence than the Tigray situation. Although reductions of U.S. aid to Ethiopia seemed to have been on the table during USAID Administrator Samantha Power’s trip last week to Addis Ababa, Washington has limited levers to roll back the ongoing dangerous dynamics.

Moreover, like elsewhere around the world, many of the Ethiopian ethnic paramilitary forces have intense local agendas, some directly clashing with Addis Ababa’s. After initially fighting TDF, many of the militias popping up around Ethiopia will turn against the capital, as well as against one another, in their conflicts over resources and power distribution, even though some are likely to accommodate with TDF.

Already, in various parts of Ethiopia, local recruits are refusing to join ENDF, preferring instead to sign up with state paramilitary or special forces, such as the notorious Liyu Police in the long restive Somali region. Numbering hundreds to thousands, such forces can easily discard Addis Ababa’s control.

Continue reading https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-fr ... ough-love/

[sarcasm]

However, the windows for badly needed humanitarian access and negotiations between the Tigrayan leadership and the national government rapidly closed. The emboldened TDF has seized parts of the Afar and Amhara regions. In response to the ENDF meltdown, the prime minister intensified efforts to stand up regional ethnic-based militias. Yet Addis Ababa has severely limited capacity to control these paramilitary forces: Over time, they will pose a graver threat to Ethiopia’s stability, territorial integrity, and ethnic coexistence than the Tigray situation. Although reductions of U.S. aid to Ethiopia seemed to have been on the table during USAID Administrator Samantha Power’s trip last week to Addis Ababa, Washington has limited levers to roll back the ongoing dangerous dynamics.

Moreover, like elsewhere around the world, many of the Ethiopian ethnic paramilitary forces have intense local agendas, some directly clashing with Addis Ababa’s. After initially fighting TDF, many of the militias popping up around Ethiopia will turn against the capital, as well as against one another, in their conflicts over resources and power distribution, even though some are likely to accommodate with TDF.

Already, in various parts of Ethiopia, local recruits are refusing to join ENDF, preferring instead to sign up with state paramilitary or special forces, such as the notorious Liyu Police in the long restive Somali region. Numbering hundreds to thousands, such forces can easily discard Addis Ababa’s control.

Ahmara Army attacked Afar clansmen in Chifra Woreda - evidence of the above risk identified by Brookings.

[Zmeselo]

Stop lying, Brookings!

America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests

Henry Kissinger

There's no any love, let alone a tough one!