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Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 12:11
by Blueshift
Even capturing Meqele was not important for TPLF. Now, I believe Abbiy left town on his own. TPLF needs to fight hit and run for the long duration to be able to march to Addis. Abbiy may have stopped that. The most stategic and important objective for TPLF should be openning the corridor to Sudan through Welqait. For Abbiy, to shut it down. Hence, why Alamata and Korem ? I believe there is a smart chess gamming going on between the agames and the weasel Abbiy . :lol: :lol: :lol:

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 12:17
by dawwit
Even that is gonna be part of a game not the game. We will find out in few days. But that RAYA is definitely a bluff. I have few possible scenarios in mind but I would rather not say them here

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 12:36
by sesame
BlueShit,

May be Getachew Reda missed his mother so much. May be they thought that Raya was a softer target. Who knows how that Agame mind works. But one thing is certain, the Welkait front is a no-go zone for Agames. The only road to the Sudan is through Humera and even the Agames could push the Gonderes, which is not possible, the Eritrean factor is a deterrent. There is no way Agames are coming to Humera. They know what the deadly Eritrean artillery can do. That is why Agames are still not Sheraro. THey are too scared of Shaebia.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 12:58
by lil kogne
Bullsh'it , why so important starting dialog of how the Agame Juntas went for Welqait instead waging a hit and run war. It seems you are assuring everyone who doubt your identity that you are full blown Agame who is abroad and rooting for the Juntas. Although you are who has a little education but dumb as any Agame would be, The Junta is done and over with. they do not know how to play their cards. For argument sake, let us assume the Junta is still powerful. Then, let us look at what is happening in and around your homeland Chigray. Where there is no kilil budget, electricity, telephone and internet services in and out of the kilil without checking in and out with the federal government, no gas for vehicles. No matter how much ammo has the Junta, unless there is a compromise, one can not ask his enemy to furnish his necessities. and so the fed would not give squat to the Junta and no air supply would suffice.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 13:03
by Za-Ilmaknun
Raya was pat of the unilateral "cease fire" deal which was forced on PM Abiy by the Blinkens. However, the rage by the rest of the country following the evacuation, and the TPLF's attempt to control the Ethio Djbouti supply corridor has the Abiy administration put on a heightened alert. So far what I came to conclude is PM Abiy acts swiftly when cornered and when the threats are specifically targeted at his throne.

As for WolQait, your prediction of swift capture and victory is a mirage. WolQait never have been part of Tigrai and it never will be. It was under occupation for the last 30 years and now free. So many strategic interests converge in that area which are detrimental to Ethiopia and Eritrea. Eat your heart out if you would but, :mrgreen: WolQait is a no go zone.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 13:11
by Abe Abraham
Blueshit, as a Tigrayan muslim, writes as a spectator.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 13:23
by sebdoyeley
Qumal-shitt, we have no idea,but your agame family may come to eat lined up in every ceremonial house as your past history tell us.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 13:44
by eden
My thought is it's an extension of the same strategy used to exploit the differences in war objectives among forces under Abiy, Isayas and Agegnew.

The strategy is to exploit the differences in interests within the region that's led by Agegnew.

Blue, should I delve into details? I rather not, makes me feel I am contributing to the sad situation if I do.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 13:51
by Abere
There are two possible scenarios, why TPLF tried Raya

[1] Bete-Amhara or Wolo has claims more far than Raya. Their claim goes at least up to Maichew. Thus, TPLF wanted to avoid extra damages associated with Raya of Amhara proper.

[2] Doing the heavy lifting as its first priority while its army was relatively at its ability. From previous experience, Wolo Raya is the deadliest force that demoralized TPLF when the nation wide protest spearhead by Fano and Qeerro started three years ago. In the history of regime change Wolo/Bete-Amhara played a very key role - everything started in this area ends in deposing the leadership in Addis Ababa. Bete-Amhara people don't rush up things, if started it they have the stamina and endurance to make it into the goal. Thus, TPLF buoyed by the Western fake media news boasting its fake entry into the evacuated Mekele city, was trying to seize the opportunity to advance into Bete-Amhara Raya Korem Alamata so as to check out their first priority box. The result we witnessed proved, its victory lasted shorter than a day - the Amhara Force re-took it in less than 1 day. A very devastating defeat for TPLF and its supporter around the world.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 14:50
by Blueshift
Eritrean Dictatorial regime cadres,

A-holes, why do you behave more Ethiopians than themselves ? :lol: :lol: You are nothing but the teref meref deqi torserawit. You stink the forum. Let the stake holders fight for it. My bad, you are the stake holders. You can't wait Eritrea to join its loving mama Ethiopia. :twisted: :lol: I have bad news for ya. It is not working out for you. Agame is your least problem.

Z-mal what ever, Coward adgi,
Regardless of to who welqait belongs, it is very strategic. For Tigrayans, losing the Welqait corridor is death. Welqait is fertile. It is an outlet to the outside world, some of the residents are Tigrayans, this is do or die for them. For amharas, it is pride. Hence, they will die fighting for it. Better be prepared. Abbiy perhaps is thinking to make welqait a killil on its own. That is not acceptable to Tigrayans. It may be not acceptable to the amharas either. If I was Abbiy, I may suggest the parliament to have one killil that combines Tigray and Amhara if not with Ethnic boundries in mind, change the administrative regions. If that does not work, bring the old provinces back. That perhaps lead to disintegration. I don't know. :roll: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 15:00
by Blueshift
Abere,

I understand the Bete Amhara pride. But, we are talking about strategic war. If the weyanes open the Welqait corridor to the outside world, Like they did during their struggle against Mengistu, they will have a life line to weapons, relationships with countries such as Sudan and Egypt who has a lot of beef with Ethiopia. They need to stay in the jungle to have any chance of winning. Now, they have a foot hold. It is not time for them to capture cities and towns. That is the job of the government. Their job is to sneak and attack. That is how governments are brought down. I think Abbiy seems to understand it. It is going to be long. Not good for Ethiopia.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 15:09
by Abere
Blueshift,
Could you see the contradictions you made when you recommend to Abiy <<I may suggest the parliament to have one killil that combines Tigray and Amhara if not with Ethnic boundries in mind, change the administrative regions>> So, believing you are an Eritrean, you are criticizing other Eritrean brothers but you are making recommendation about Ethiopia affair. More than that you as an Eritrean posed this question about Ethiopian territories. It is better and fair just let other Eritrean brothers reflect their opinion
just like you are doing.

Regarding your recommendation, it is actually invalid. Humera Welqait and Raya are already returned to their Amhara family. TPLF or Tigres should accept the reality - they stole Amhara historic land and settle non-native people migrating from Adowa and other parts of Tigray province. If they behave, they can live with the native Amhara people of these territories or else they can return back to their own Tigray province. They only ONE and only ONE solution that guarantees Tigress to live and work everywhere in Ethiopia is just to accept that they indeed are Ethiopians not by stealing Amhara territories. You are not helping them by such an advice, it is going to hurt them. Amhara is a large and strong solid part of Ethiopia, no one can get out anything out of its possession. We are living in a different time with a very differently strong Amhara generation. It is better to be realistic rather than illusionary dream.

Blueshift wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 14:50
Eritrean Dictatorial regime cadres,

A-holes, why do you behave more Ethiopians than themselves ? :lol: :lol: You are nothing but the teref meref deqi torserawit. You stink the forum. Let the stake holders fight for it. My bad, you are the stake holders. You can't wait Eritrea to join its loving mama Ethiopia. :twisted: :lol: I have bad news for ya. It is not working out for you. Agame is your least problem.

Lakeshore,
Regardless of to who welqait belongs, it is very strategic. For Tigrayans, losing the Welqait corridor is death. Welqait is fertile. It is an outlet to the outside world, some of the residents are Tigrayans, this is do or die for them. For amharas, it is pride. Hence, they will die fighting for it. Better be prepared. Abbiy perhaps is thinking to make welqait a killil on its own. That is not acceptable to Tigrayans. It may be not acceptable to the amharas either. If I was Abbiy, I may suggest the parliament to have one killil that combines Tigray and Amhara if not with Ethnic boundries in mind, change the administrative regions. If that does not work, bring the old provinces back. That perhaps lead to disintegration. I don't know. :roll: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 15:15
by Blueshift
Abere,

I am recommending as an outsider. I am not screaming at TPLF. These asz hole cadres, scream at TPLF more than Ethiopians themselves. They are trying to prolong the life of the dictatorial regime in Eritrea that made it really poor and insignificant. They are your brothers and sisters, The remnants of the Derg Soldiers. They are no different than Ne-gera S-egera. The only difference is, they mask themselves as Eritreans. You don't see me cheering for TPLF. Do you ? I don't blame you, they are working for your case, more than you. :twisted: :lol: They are despicable. :roll: :twisted:

I am not trying to help them. Good luck. they are cornered, there will be up and down. They will fight you to death.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 15:37
by Abere
Blueshift,

I think we are living in a different time - the world is becoming one village because of information revolution. Thus, it is human to reflect opinion and share experience. Like anyone else you naturally can have differences, that is okay.
But, the U.S./Blinken and Biden have interest in Ethiopia crossing oceans, why can't the next door Eritrean brothers and their leader can't have a stake in Ethiopian affairs? The wind of the hurricane likely causes geographic-regional trouble, it is not about who the leader is here or there. The situation in Ethiopia affects Eritrea as well - now the Tigres/Woyanes are massacring Eritrean refugees. Can't this be at least a reason. I think it better to listen to one another and think of the bigger picture - don't live the past It is going to hold you back.
Blueshift wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 15:15
Abere,

I am recommending as an outsider. I am not screaming at TPLF. These asz hole cadres, scream at TPLF more than Ethiopians themselves. They are trying to prolong the life of the dictatorial regime in Eritrea that made it really poor and insignificant. They are your brothers and sisters, The remnants of the Derg Soldiers. They are no different than Ne-gera S-egera. The only difference is, they mask themselves as Eritreans. You don't see me cheering for TPLF. Do you ? I don't blame you, they are working for your case, more than you. :twisted: :lol: They are despicable. :roll: :twisted:

I am not trying to help them. Good luck. they are cornered, there will be up and down. They will fight you to death.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 17:18
by Sadacha Macca
There is no way that the TPLF can rule again, they won't make it to Addis/Finfinne, forget about your wild dreams dude. They *maybe*, as Obbo Ittu here said, try to get to Sudan by capturing Welkait/Humera/etc, then maybe, they'll declare their ''abay tigray'' and become puppets for certain super-powers interests in the region.
They of course, want to access Sudan, so they can reunite with what they say are, 30'000 tigrayans forces there waiting to join them to fight more.
They may also ask Egypt for aid to fight. I do not think Abiy, his allies, including Eritrea would allow this to occur, however; and who could blame them? Who wants a protracted conflict in the region?

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 17:31
by Misraq
The plan was to soften troop deployments in Welkait & Benishangule (around the dam). But it ended up for agames in unexpected manner ...i.e it created anger particularly in Amhara state where massive number of fighting forces recruitment not to mention $$$contribution and atlist 15 high ranking officers to be back into their former ranks after they were sidelined a few years ago.

It also resulted in the addition of Oromo & Sidama forces

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 17:57
by Blueshift
Abere,

I understand what you are saying. Eritrea coming to the rescue of Ethiopia ! Ethiopia can take care of itself. It is a big girl. Eritrea needs to find itself. If Eritrea had a government that is transparent and democratic, I would be the first one to give hand to our neighbor country that is part of the family. But, that is not so. Goodness, what Abbiy and Isayas are cooking behind the scene. Trust me, I don't like it. Anything that is fishy is no good. Isayas does whatever he wants in Eritrea. He is not accountable to anybody. Practically, he owns the country. This is the 21st century. Hence suspicion.

Sadacha wrote,
they won't make it to Addis/Finfinneforget about your wild dreams dude.
Are you talking to me ? :roll: Did I say, they are going to make it to Addis. Are you myopic or something ? Don't be paranoid. I did not say that. But, if they spend many years playing just guerilla fighting, if they are that good, chance are they could make it. Don't be paranoid. If anything from what is happening, they want it now, but they wont get it. It requires patience living in the jungle not Meqele or somewhere else. Kind of the Afghanistan tenacity. Actually, they came too far in a very short period of time.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 17:59
by Za-Ilmaknun
Blueshift wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 14:50
Eritrean Dictatorial regime cadres,

A-holes, why do you behave more Ethiopians than themselves ? :lol: :lol: You are nothing but the teref meref deqi torserawit. You stink the forum. Let the stake holders fight for it. My bad, you are the stake holders. You can't wait Eritrea to join its loving mama Ethiopia. :twisted: :lol: I have bad news for ya. It is not working out for you. Agame is your least problem.

Z-mal what ever, Coward adgi,
Regardless of to who welqait belongs, it is very strategic. For Tigrayans, losing the Welqait corridor is death. Welqait is fertile. It is an outlet to the outside world, some of the residents are Tigrayans, this is do or die for them. For amharas, it is pride. Hence, they will die fighting for it. Better be prepared. Abbiy perhaps is thinking to make welqait a killil on its own. That is not acceptable to Tigrayans. It may be not acceptable to the amharas either. If I was Abbiy, I may suggest the parliament to have one killil that combines Tigray and Amhara if not with Ethnic boundries in mind, change the administrative regions. If that does not work, bring the old provinces back. That perhaps lead to disintegration. I don't know. :roll: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Your stupidity is always exceeded by your stupidity, :mrgreen:

You can never lose what you do not own!! The area that you are talking about have never been party of proper Tigrai until they were annexed by force in 1991 and, continuously occupied for the last 30 years. Geography isn't always equally generously friendly to all. Death or hell, if Tigreans choose to be independent nation, they can do so. Why would Ethiopia give up its sovereign land to a tiny "Tigrai" region ? If only you had some understanding of the "adgis", you would never have the gut to scribble your gibberish here. By your own imbecile logic, so it is acceptable for a country to annex lands or anything that doesn't belong to it so that the country could stand on its feet. Should Ethiopia go to war with Djbouti or Eritrea or Somalia so that it can gain sea access? How does that scenario bode well in your peanut size brain? Your kinds are always entangled with misguided hate and never learn anything meaningful.

You are more than wrong when you presumed that WelQait is only an issue of pride for the Amhara people. Have you had any thought about the indigenous people of the land who has no affiliations whatsoever with the invaders and, want to stay Ethiopians for posterity? You only see it from the angle of property right (which is in your DNA as looters) as opposed to the identity of the people who have been fighting for their right for the last 30 years. Why is it impossible for your folks to accept differences and live as good neighbors instead of needing to dominate others?

You also failed to address the strategic threat TPLF would pose to Eritrea if the terror group is allowed to have access to those lands. Perhaps as a Tigrean masquerading as somebody else, it is a deliberate omission for it doesn't augment your argument. No go blueshitt like a hippo you are! :mrgreen:

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 18:08
by Blueshift
Z-mal

Stupid donkey, land is owned by the people who live in it. :twisted: From the government point of view, the government owns the land. Tigrayans say, it was theirs before Haile Sellasie incorporated it to Gondar. Can he do that. Ya. He was the king. Amharas say they own it. Tigrayan say they own it. I say neither owns it. Let the parliament decide what it wants to do. Hope, the Tigrayans would go along with it. You have no brain on your shoulders. You have no civility either. Now, good luck. But, remember, they are cornered. They will fight back. It is not my business But, I think the people in that area should decide their own destiny.

Re: Guys, why would TPLF go after Raya when the big prize is the road through Welqait to sudan

Posted: 15 Jul 2021, 18:26
by Za-Ilmaknun
Blueshift wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 18:08
Z-mal

Stupid donkey, land is owned by the people who live in it. :twisted: From the government point of view, the government owns the land. Tigrayans say, it was theirs before Haile Sellasie incorporated it to Gondar. Can he do that. Ya. He was the king. Amharas say they own it. Tigrayan say they own it. I say neither owns it. Let the parliament decide what it wants to do. Hope, the Tigrayans would go along with it. You have no brain on your shoulders. You have no civility either. Now, good luck. But, remember, they are cornered. They will fight back. It is not my business But, I think the people in that area should decide their own destiny.
Should I do a littlie digging for ya and spill the real story behind the claims, since your lazy behind is only dependent up on hearsays and rumors? :mrgreen: I know what kinda people we are dealing with in this forum but, you are a [deleted] monkey who isn't even stand by his own claims. You often times shift your positions like a well oiled win vane and, in the process lose your confused originality. Talking about brain and civility ? look your shitrrty self in the mirror and tell me what you see. If you have no business then, shut TFU and get lost. Don't indulge in to something and spill your ignorance if the things under discussion are of no concern to you.

No, land isn't own by people who live on it. You can live in Bermuda in a rented kitchen for which you have no deed of trust. Owning and living on a land are two different things. Tigre people live all over Ethiopia but they have time and again renounced their right to even live on those lands by their own "constitutionally" ratified apartheid decree. I kinda wonder how anybody can put sense in your collective nonsensical thick skulls. Your folks dug the pit deeper for other to jump in but, karma is a biaaatch!! They cornered themselves by their sheer greed and boundless hate. :mrgreen: