I talked to few residents of Addis (not representative at all) and tried to understand what is the reason why people are not following PP in mass. I got different reasons and the main one is the insane corruption in the city institutions. The level of corruption, I was told has reached to never seen levels. Officials will openly give you a bank account number (most likely from their relatives) and tell you to transfer money and bring the bank confirmation paper before you get services. I was told Addis Ababans are sick and tired of it and blame it right on PP, especially PP Oromia because I was told Oromo domination of the city administration is very visible (this is of course subjective perception, I don't have the numbers).
The next thing I got told is that PP is still in the "ብሄር ብሄረሰቦች" mode just like EPRDF, a mentality many Addis Ababans don't feel attachment. I understand PP very well on this one but Addis Ababans just don't like too much "ብሄር ብሄረሰቦች". They love to see Ethiopians as one entity. PP is busy doing many "beherseboch" stuff. Today it is Amhara cultural center, tomorrow it is Oromo something and then it is some other ethnic group. It is all about ethnicity. I was told this is too much for many Addis Ababans. They feel like this is the same ethnic division politics of EPRDF. What they want to hear is Ethiopian stuff for all not based on ethnicity. Even though I don't agree with this mentality but this is how many Addis Ababan's see. PP's problem in this regard is more of a clash of mentality and culture, not being wrong necessarily.
One of the organizers of the Ethiopia week, where many ethnic groups presented their culture, told me that the participation of Addis Ababan's on that event was very minimal. She told me how she tried to convince her friends to come and visit but many declined. She said many think this EPRDF "ብሄር ብሄረሰቦች" thing is simply backward tribalism. She told me her friends want to see modern things and events that all Ethiopians are seen as an entity. She also told me they just have a bad taste during the boring cadre days of EPRDF.
The main problem I see with PP is that the actors in Addis Ababa are mainly PP Oromia and PP Amhara both of whom come from ""ብሄር ብሄረሰቦች" background and they display their values and who they are but they are just out of sync with the mentality of Addis Ababans. What PP needs is a fully independent PP Addis Ababa (which I think it is trying to build) that is fully run by Addis Ababans. Some of the people I talked told me that PP just don't get it. They just don't understand it.
Other things that might also be punished in the election and some have raised is that people think PP is distributing too much land now before the election. I can't confirm this but they have the impression, PP may be knowing that it will lose in Addis and is now distributing land in mass. Addis Ababans have a bad memory during the 2005 election and how EPRDF/TPLF did the same thing days before the election fearing it is about to lose the upcoming election. Some feel PP is doing the same thing days before the election.
As if that is not enough, PP recently opened an "Oromo" court in (the outskirts?) of Addis Ababa and told the media that now Oromo residents of Addis Ababa can gate court service there. This is insane. How can the residents of the same city get court service based on their ethnic background? Addis Ababas are used to get service without being asked about your ethnic background but PP comes up with such genius idea of giving Addis Ababans service based on ethnicity. Great! Now even Ezema protested and brought this issue to the general attorney.
I think PP is done in Addis! PP just don't get it when it comes to Addis. One observer told me "ብልጽግና እና ባልደራስ ለአቅመ አዲስ አበባ አልደረሱም"
Sadly and surprisingly for me it seems Balderas has more supporters than PP in Addis.