Why Ethiopia already controls the Nile, An Engineers Perspective
Posted: 28 May 2021, 03:33
Why Ethiopia already controls the Nile, An Engineers Perspective
Hello everyone,
I typically don't write something like this but I decided to do so because it's clear their is a lot of propaganda on both sides of the GERD debate. My background is in engineering and I hope to offer my perspective on why the Nile is already under control of Ethiopia and why an airstrike on the dam is for lack of a better word, not a serious threat.
The dam structure & The forces it is designed for:
What many politicians who are vocal for bombing the dam don't realize is that in practice it would be genuinely one of the most complicated and difficult operations that's ever been attempted by an Air Force. Why is that? Well for this exercise, let's assume the dam is completely unguarded and no resistance would be faced from an air attack (I know that's not the case but bear with me). Below is what makes it such a difficult challenge.
1. The target is a gravity dam (the 6th largest in the world at that!) - Most air to ground ordnance (bombs) are designed to damage small targets even if they are armored (people, trucks, small concrete buildings, etc.). There are some bombs that are designed for destroying underground bunkers but even if Egypt had those the fluid dynamics of how explosions work would be negated due to the vertical attack surface you would be aiming for on the dam. Bunker buster bombs are only effective due to all the necessary forces at play at time of detonation (gravity, kinetic energy, etc.) complementing the explosions. Barring nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles that Israel would never let a neighbor have, an air attack at best would be expected to leave cosmetic damage.
2. A gravity dam in my opinion is one of the strongest structures I believe humans can build - Another point against the validity of an air attack is literally how a gravity dam is designed. Structurally they are both designed to be sturdy and flexible to withstand earthquakes and give room for error regarding their live span (another nail in the coffin about why bombs from an air strike will not be effective). In addition to that there are likely many miles of steel reinforcement as this is a gravity dam that's being built by a world class company. I think when most people think about a dam they think of it as another structure similar to a building, the reality is it's more a less a giant stone with some level of flexibility. In physics, when you hit something, the more you can concentrate a force on a specific area the more damage you can delivery to your target. This is why if you were to gently poke someone with a needle you can draw blood but you would have to punch them way harder to penetrate their skin. It's this same flexibility principle that makes dams such strong structures. When an explosion hits it from a vertical face, that force will be dispersed throughout the entire dam. If you were to do a more concentrated attack it would still be ineffective as you would have to punch though probably hundreds of meters of steel rebar and reinforced concrete to punch though . To put the nature of that force in perspective, keep in mind when people drill for oil, just getting through the earths bedrock, something softer, requires a constant application of force by specialized drills likely for days.
3. Attacks above and below the dam are not feasible options - If you've thought of this, I want to give you props for thinking outside of the box. On paper it seems like these ideas might bear fruit but let me breakdown why it would fail.
3a. Attack the top of the dam - Simply put this is both the one of two of the strongest points on the dam for all kinds of attacks and the easiest part to repair. An airstrikes kinetic and explosive force would have the benefit of being dispersed throughout both the length of dam and it's depth. It would be the most cosmetically damaging (it will just look bad) but due to it's location crews can literally get to work to patch up any damage when the strike is done.
3b. Attack below the dam - If you've seen star wars, you likely think this is a spot where the damage can be done. The "hole in the death" star so to speak. The reality is again that not only is this not going to be effective, it is likely the strongest part of the dam and it has the potential to be the most risky attack for downstream nations. Lets say you manage to attack the base of the dam, this picture [here](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/buildingbig/da ... orces.html) should give you and idea of why it is such a strong point. I would even say this is why it is called a "gravity dam" in the first place. There would be little cosmetic damage due to the flexibility principles outline above and without any ability to begin digging perpendicularly you would not even be able to breach to the reservoir on the other side. This leads to the worst case scenario, if earth is moved wrong while attacking the base, you risk impeding the flow of the Nile. The area in front has already been dug to provided access for the spillways to dump their water. If that is blocked it will take some time before they can be repaired (keep in mind you will need the permission of the people you just attacked)
Personally I don't think the lawmakers in Cairo are stupid, I think they realize how impossible of an attack it is but because they are a dictatorship they need to look strong since the Nile is something a lot of Egyptians are emotionally tied to.
I want to remind you that the scenario above this is all taking into account that the dam will not be defended and that the operation would be executed flawlessly. ( I say this not to punch down on the Egyptian Air Force but because we should all acknowledge that Egypt, like many Air Forces has no experience striking a gravity dam, especially one of this size). There are a few historical air assaults on dams that can be referenced back in WW2, I recommend examining Operation Chastise which was an English assaults on German dams ([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation ... _the\_raid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation ... r_the_raid))
But keep in mind these 5 things
1. Most of the dams attacked were not breached.
2. The English had the advantage of sustained attacks (they would bomb it, fly back to the the UK, refuel, rearm, and fly back for more attacks)
3. The Nile reservoir is not deep enough to replicate this kind of an attack.
4. These dams were built 100+ years ago and do not incorporate a lot of more contemporary building practices or materials we have today. (
The English knew that direct attacks on the dam face would not be effective too so they used depth charges, however, modern gravity dams have more slopping bases that would coincidentally make underwater attacks less effective now. You can see this a little bit in the picture referenced in part 3B above).
5. The English had tons of practice for these missions.
If you want a more military/geopolitical analysis let me know. I believe Addis looks good stacking up against Cairo, even with our internal issues now. Also, I believe that Khartoum is not seriously aligned with Egypt, they have too much to gain on something Egypt can never deliver and their future is brighter (literally) with Addis..
TLDR: It's my professional opinion that Cairo is bluffing when they say they can destroy the dam. As a dictatorship, they especially need to look strong to distract their people from their own impending crises. If they attack the dam and succeed, I would be impressed and you should be too due to the reasons outlined above.
EDIT: As by request, there is a crosspost in Sudan. It would be really cool to get some cross reddit dialogue with another subreddit in the future. If it goes well, perhaps we can also cross post into Egypt. This goes with out saying but please be on your best behavior and don't take anything personally.
Hello everyone,
I typically don't write something like this but I decided to do so because it's clear their is a lot of propaganda on both sides of the GERD debate. My background is in engineering and I hope to offer my perspective on why the Nile is already under control of Ethiopia and why an airstrike on the dam is for lack of a better word, not a serious threat.
The dam structure & The forces it is designed for:
What many politicians who are vocal for bombing the dam don't realize is that in practice it would be genuinely one of the most complicated and difficult operations that's ever been attempted by an Air Force. Why is that? Well for this exercise, let's assume the dam is completely unguarded and no resistance would be faced from an air attack (I know that's not the case but bear with me). Below is what makes it such a difficult challenge.
1. The target is a gravity dam (the 6th largest in the world at that!) - Most air to ground ordnance (bombs) are designed to damage small targets even if they are armored (people, trucks, small concrete buildings, etc.). There are some bombs that are designed for destroying underground bunkers but even if Egypt had those the fluid dynamics of how explosions work would be negated due to the vertical attack surface you would be aiming for on the dam. Bunker buster bombs are only effective due to all the necessary forces at play at time of detonation (gravity, kinetic energy, etc.) complementing the explosions. Barring nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles that Israel would never let a neighbor have, an air attack at best would be expected to leave cosmetic damage.
2. A gravity dam in my opinion is one of the strongest structures I believe humans can build - Another point against the validity of an air attack is literally how a gravity dam is designed. Structurally they are both designed to be sturdy and flexible to withstand earthquakes and give room for error regarding their live span (another nail in the coffin about why bombs from an air strike will not be effective). In addition to that there are likely many miles of steel reinforcement as this is a gravity dam that's being built by a world class company. I think when most people think about a dam they think of it as another structure similar to a building, the reality is it's more a less a giant stone with some level of flexibility. In physics, when you hit something, the more you can concentrate a force on a specific area the more damage you can delivery to your target. This is why if you were to gently poke someone with a needle you can draw blood but you would have to punch them way harder to penetrate their skin. It's this same flexibility principle that makes dams such strong structures. When an explosion hits it from a vertical face, that force will be dispersed throughout the entire dam. If you were to do a more concentrated attack it would still be ineffective as you would have to punch though probably hundreds of meters of steel rebar and reinforced concrete to punch though . To put the nature of that force in perspective, keep in mind when people drill for oil, just getting through the earths bedrock, something softer, requires a constant application of force by specialized drills likely for days.
3. Attacks above and below the dam are not feasible options - If you've thought of this, I want to give you props for thinking outside of the box. On paper it seems like these ideas might bear fruit but let me breakdown why it would fail.
3a. Attack the top of the dam - Simply put this is both the one of two of the strongest points on the dam for all kinds of attacks and the easiest part to repair. An airstrikes kinetic and explosive force would have the benefit of being dispersed throughout both the length of dam and it's depth. It would be the most cosmetically damaging (it will just look bad) but due to it's location crews can literally get to work to patch up any damage when the strike is done.
3b. Attack below the dam - If you've seen star wars, you likely think this is a spot where the damage can be done. The "hole in the death" star so to speak. The reality is again that not only is this not going to be effective, it is likely the strongest part of the dam and it has the potential to be the most risky attack for downstream nations. Lets say you manage to attack the base of the dam, this picture [here](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/buildingbig/da ... orces.html) should give you and idea of why it is such a strong point. I would even say this is why it is called a "gravity dam" in the first place. There would be little cosmetic damage due to the flexibility principles outline above and without any ability to begin digging perpendicularly you would not even be able to breach to the reservoir on the other side. This leads to the worst case scenario, if earth is moved wrong while attacking the base, you risk impeding the flow of the Nile. The area in front has already been dug to provided access for the spillways to dump their water. If that is blocked it will take some time before they can be repaired (keep in mind you will need the permission of the people you just attacked)
Personally I don't think the lawmakers in Cairo are stupid, I think they realize how impossible of an attack it is but because they are a dictatorship they need to look strong since the Nile is something a lot of Egyptians are emotionally tied to.
I want to remind you that the scenario above this is all taking into account that the dam will not be defended and that the operation would be executed flawlessly. ( I say this not to punch down on the Egyptian Air Force but because we should all acknowledge that Egypt, like many Air Forces has no experience striking a gravity dam, especially one of this size). There are a few historical air assaults on dams that can be referenced back in WW2, I recommend examining Operation Chastise which was an English assaults on German dams ([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation ... _the\_raid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation ... r_the_raid))
But keep in mind these 5 things
1. Most of the dams attacked were not breached.
2. The English had the advantage of sustained attacks (they would bomb it, fly back to the the UK, refuel, rearm, and fly back for more attacks)
3. The Nile reservoir is not deep enough to replicate this kind of an attack.
4. These dams were built 100+ years ago and do not incorporate a lot of more contemporary building practices or materials we have today. (
The English knew that direct attacks on the dam face would not be effective too so they used depth charges, however, modern gravity dams have more slopping bases that would coincidentally make underwater attacks less effective now. You can see this a little bit in the picture referenced in part 3B above).
5. The English had tons of practice for these missions.
If you want a more military/geopolitical analysis let me know. I believe Addis looks good stacking up against Cairo, even with our internal issues now. Also, I believe that Khartoum is not seriously aligned with Egypt, they have too much to gain on something Egypt can never deliver and their future is brighter (literally) with Addis..
TLDR: It's my professional opinion that Cairo is bluffing when they say they can destroy the dam. As a dictatorship, they especially need to look strong to distract their people from their own impending crises. If they attack the dam and succeed, I would be impressed and you should be too due to the reasons outlined above.
EDIT: As by request, there is a crosspost in Sudan. It would be really cool to get some cross reddit dialogue with another subreddit in the future. If it goes well, perhaps we can also cross post into Egypt. This goes with out saying but please be on your best behavior and don't take anything personally.