Mereja.Forum

Open question: speculate the coming scenarios

Players: Ethiopia, Eritrea, TPLF guerillas, US&EU, Egypt, Sudan,
Issue 1, Tigray Crisis
Issue 2, Sudan border dispute
Issue 3, GERD dam dispute

Issue 1
Scenario 1, complete elimination of TPLF (impossible) brings normalcy i.e. no more sanctions by West,
Scenario 2, continued fighting,
2a) Eritrea withdraws, (eases US pressure) -> extended but less violent
2b) Eritrea stays, further sanctions (like Iran) -> US military intervention (unlikely)),

Scenario 3, Cease fire, deal with TPLF (cessation referendum) - impossible

Issue 2,3
After the Ethiopian election, pressure from Egypt, Sudan intensifies to reach a dam deal, nothing seems to change from Ethiopian side, only small border clashes (potentially with other neighboring countries like Kenya (Marsabit) and Djibouti)

Matt,

You asked broad questions, and you limited the answer to three of your very own possibilities. You should have left it open. I believe Abbiy will give in. He may have done so already. Tigray stays part of Ethiopia, and it elects a new government. TPLF continues surgical operations. Finally, EDF will withdraw from Tigray. Tigray will be a pseudo independent country within Ethiopia. US will go back to UN security council with evidence gathered. Outcome, your guess is mine. Egypt and Sudan will be relentless. At the end, everyone will compromise. That is my take.

Blueshift wrote: ↑

27 May 2021, 20:40

Matt,

You asked broad questions, and you limited the answer to three of your very own possibilities. You should have left it open. I believe Abbiy will give in. He may have done so already. Tigray stays part of Ethiopia, and it elects a new government. TPLF continues surgical operations. Finally, EDF will withdraw from Tigray. Tigray will be a pseudo independent country within Ethiopia. US will go back to UN security council with evidence gathered. Outcome, your guess is mine. Egypt and Sudan will be relentless. At the end, everyone will compromise. That is my take.

The low IQ agames aka ተንከባላላይ ዘር are funny as hell. Keep dreaming, agame boy

Dedebit is always dedeb
R.I.P Abay Tigray and TPLF ዱቄት

Hawzen,

I told the truth. Everyone knows your coward adgi trying to appease another adgi named Misraq ..Shyyt head, all these years, you must have all around adgi blood. By the way, I touched a couple of nerves on your coward back, didn't I.
ዉሹማ ምስራቅ፣ ኣንታ ሑልኩስ ኣድጊ፣ ድርባይ፣ ኪድ ጥቦብ ሽልሖ ምስራቅ:ወሓጦ በስ ነእዱግ ከተሔጉስ እንታይ ጎቦ ዘይተሰቀልካ

Tenkobalalay zer...

..Is that it. Shyyyt head.
Good job Misraq. Hawzen likes it mucho .