What Does America Get by Isolating & Sanctioning Ethiopia?
Posted: 22 May 2021, 21:17
Let us considers two well known principles - a behavior maxim and a principle of purposeful systems. The systems principle sates that actors produce unintended consequences. The behavior maxim states that if an actor can't do what he wants to do, he will do what he can.
An America hostile act (actual measure) will change the behaviors of the peoples and countries and leaders of the Horn of Africa, African Union and friends of Ethiopia all over the globe. In a pax Americana unidimensional world, America could force its will on the weak and the small. In multi- polar world of competing powers, the people and countries of the Horn will not submit to the selfish will of USA+EU. The Horn will turn into an anti-America environment and this definite and inevitable consequence of America action will express itself in a massive disruption, instability and shifts in the alignment forces in the region and Africa.
What is the core objective of America policy and action in this case?
USA+EU want to change Ethiopian behavior- this is old school theory that holds that punishment changes behavior. No, it does not. Punishment hardens behavior, it hardens resistance and America can only produce enemies in the Horn and in Africa. American hostility and intervention can only fuel a more violent and aggressive Ethiopian nationalism and national resistance.
The unintended consequence will be that Kenya, South Sudan, Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt will all be disrupted; and its will end in American loss of the entire region.
America will not and cannot buy the friendship and support of the region by means sanctions and embargoes. The only predictable ways of gaining influence and support (for America) is supporting Ethiopian, Eritrean and Somalian aspirations. If America is not unwilling to travel that path, then they will do what they can, which is hostility - political economic and military muscle. Of course, the outcomes of such a foolish policy is an anti-American Horn of Africa, if not the whole of African continent.
An America hostile act (actual measure) will change the behaviors of the peoples and countries and leaders of the Horn of Africa, African Union and friends of Ethiopia all over the globe. In a pax Americana unidimensional world, America could force its will on the weak and the small. In multi- polar world of competing powers, the people and countries of the Horn will not submit to the selfish will of USA+EU. The Horn will turn into an anti-America environment and this definite and inevitable consequence of America action will express itself in a massive disruption, instability and shifts in the alignment forces in the region and Africa.
What is the core objective of America policy and action in this case?
USA+EU want to change Ethiopian behavior- this is old school theory that holds that punishment changes behavior. No, it does not. Punishment hardens behavior, it hardens resistance and America can only produce enemies in the Horn and in Africa. American hostility and intervention can only fuel a more violent and aggressive Ethiopian nationalism and national resistance.
The unintended consequence will be that Kenya, South Sudan, Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt will all be disrupted; and its will end in American loss of the entire region.
America will not and cannot buy the friendship and support of the region by means sanctions and embargoes. The only predictable ways of gaining influence and support (for America) is supporting Ethiopian, Eritrean and Somalian aspirations. If America is not unwilling to travel that path, then they will do what they can, which is hostility - political economic and military muscle. Of course, the outcomes of such a foolish policy is an anti-American Horn of Africa, if not the whole of African continent.
