"Eritrea participated in the Tigray War without invitation" - consequences of accepting the Ethiopian line for Eritrea
Posted: 05 Apr 2021, 20:24
The reason the Ethiopians insist "Eritrea participated in the Tigray War without invitation" & the consequences of accepting the Ethiopian line for Eritrea
"Eritrean narrative: it is fighting a pre-emptive war of invading and controlling selected locations to defend from possible attack by retreating TPLF fighters.
The Eritrean narrative is least evolved and self defeating. The act of incursion or invasion into a sovereign country can potentially trigger UN military/blockade intervention under its Chapter VII - articles [39] [41] [42]. Although, the Ethiopian govt. has not made calls to the UN under those terms [unlikely to do so], nonetheless, as the Eritrean participation is considered to be impeding peaceful outcome and thus creating security risk, such mechanisms could still be taken. Again, since the Eritrean narrative was that the country was not involved [actually still appears to be so], then it doesn't really have any line of propaganda to set a narrative. This has reduced the Eritrean narrative to be nothing more than challenging the veracity of charges leveled against its armed forces.
So, does Eritrea have an exit strategy? Very unlikely, judging by the way things are going. By accepting that it had opted for invasion/incursion for its own security, Eritrea assumes full responsibility for damages. The Ethiopian PM had recently estimated that the damage in Tigray is so far hoovering around $ 1 billion USD. Would Eritrea be held accountable for repaying part of this? The Ethiopian govt. had made it abundantly clear that it did not invite Eritrea into the country. So, who will assume the costs for the damages? Are Eritreans willing to foot the bill?
Ultimately, the Tigray conflict will be settled on a round table. The problem is for us, Eritrea, because we will not have a seat at the table. Rather, we are likely to end up as a meal on the table."
The above is a shortened version of HaileTG's comment on awate.