Mereja.Forum

[Horus]

What do I mean?

1. Mr. Biden is moving away from the damaged record and credibility of Rice, Smith, Frazer, Thomas -, Karen Bass, an army of black American women bent on being TPLF water carriers.

2. America is not a foster father of TPLF, US has vital, very vital super power interest in the Horn which at this very moment is being challenged by Russia, China, Turky and India.

3. Chris Coons was chair of Senate African subcommittee and still a ranking member in the senate foreign relations. Coons, a Delaware close friend of Biden took Biden's seat in the Senate and was one of the candidates for secretary of state. Other than a short relief volunteer service in Kenya, coons is not student of African politics leave alone Ethiopian politics. That is why he is joined by African experts heading for Addis either as an emissary of Biden or as a fact finding delegation of the Senate.

4. All said and done, Biden needs to correct course on Ethiopia if US want to have any influence on the complex geopolitical calculus of the Horn. Why?

5. Because, TPLF is dead, it is an ontological nothingness. A super power cannot ride a dead horse. TPLF is not a material reality that could be a proxy asset.

My guess is that Chris Coons is going to Addis, a trusted emissary of Biden, to stabilize US-Ethiopian relations and probably gauge the overall situation with respect to Tigray and Abay Dam.

6. In short, US want to rejoin the super power struggle in the region, not further antagonize Ethiopia which would be a priceless gift to Russian.

Senator Chris Coons is heading for Addis not to defend TPLF but to play US geopolitics in our region .

Keep those TPLF water carriers away from Ethiopia - Susan Rice, smith, Frazer, Thomas, Bass

[Zmeselo]

What do I mean?

1. Mr. Biden is moving away from the damaged record and credibility of Rice, Smith, Frazer, Thomas -, Karen Bass, an army of black American women bent on being TPLF water carriers.

2. America is not a foster father of TPLF, US has vital, very vital super power interest in the Horn which at this very moment is being challenged by Russia, China, Turky and India.

3. Chris Coons was chair of Senate African subcommittee and still a ranking member in the senate foreign relations. Coons, a Delaware close friend of Biden took Biden's seat in the Senate and was one of the candidates for secretary of state. Other than a short relief volunteer service in Kenya, coons is not student of African politics leave alone Ethiopian politics. That is why he is joined by African experts heading for Addis either as an emissary of Biden or as a fact finding delegation of the Senate.

4. All said and done, Biden needs to correct course on Ethiopia if US want to have any influence on the complex geopolitical calculus of the Horn. Why?

5. Because, TPLF is dead, it is an ontological nothingness. A super power cannot ride a dead horse. TPLF is not a material reality that could be a proxy asset.

My guess is that Chris Coons is going to Addis, a trusted emissary of Biden, to stabilize US-Ethiopian relations and probably gauge the overall situation with respect to Tigray and Abay Dam.

6. In short, US want to rejoin the super power struggle in the region, not further antagonize Ethiopia which would be a priceless gift to Russian.

Senator Chris Coons is heading for Addis not to defend TPLF but to play US geopolitics in our region .

Keep those TPLF water carriers away from Ethiopia - Susan Rice, smith, Frazer, Thomas, Bass

The US will do its utmost, to create some form of friction & schism b/n Eritrea & Ethiopia. I think that's the ultimate aim, considering the tplf is dead beyond resuscitation. So the aim of the US, at the end of the day, must be how to harm Eritrea. That's why all this talk about nonexistent Eritrean army in Tigray, eventhough Ethiopia has clearly & unequivocally told them that's not the case.

[Horus]

Zmeselo,

My thinking is that US is redesigning its post-TPLF Horn policy. I also believe that what I said about Ethiopia also applies for Eritrea; that is US can't put old style pressure on Eritrea any more. And, America can't tell Abiye how to relate with Eritrea but what America will do is that they put a lot pressure on everybody toward internal democratization in Eritrea. These are the areas that Abiye will have no good answers to defend Isayas. As far as Eritrean forces in Tigray, it is becoming irrelevant in post-TPLF Tigray. Remember, why would US continue to isolate Eritrea? It doesn't make sense. US is in a better position on the Red Sea by having positive influence on Eritrea rather than isolate and destabilize Eritrea. TPLF gone that calculus is of no value any longer.

[Zmeselo]

Zmeselo,

My thinking is that US is redesigning its post-TPLF Horn policy. I also believe that what I said about Ethiopia also applies for Eritrea; that is US can't put old style pressure on Eritrea any more. And, America can't tell Abiye how to relate with Eritrea but what America will do is that they put a lot pressure on everybody toward internal democratization in Eritrea. These are the areas that Abiye will have no good answers to defend Isayas. As far as Eritrean forces in Tigray, it is becoming irrelevant in post-TPLF Tigray. Remember, why would US continue to isolate Eritrea? It doesn't make sense. US is in a better position on the Red Sea by having positive influence on Eritrea rather than isolate and destabilize Eritrea. TPLF gone that calculus is of no value any longer.

I get your point!

If the Eritrean democratization issue ever comes up though, I think the PM has a good & ready answer.

"ETHIOPIA'S FOREIGN POLICY, IS NON- INTERFERENCE IN OTHER COUNTRIES' INTERNAL AFFAIRS!"

That might teach them, something valuable.

[Fiyameta]

Hold your horses. Beware of the Economic hitmen.

[Horus]

Right now, the only entity that needs instability in the Horn of Africa (Red Sea) is Egypt and its Arab lobby. As we speak this Arab lobby on US policy makers is stronger than African influence. So the nature of Eritrean relation with Egypt will very much influence how US behaves toward Eritrea. All in all, following Ethio-Eritrean friendship, US has no better policy choice than embrace Eritrea. Now the focus will decisively shift to the Nile + Ethio-Sudan diplomacy.

[Zmeselo]

Right now, the only entity that needs instability in the Horn of Africa (Red Sea) is Egypt and its Arab lobby. As we speak this Arab lobby on US policy makers is stronger than African influence. So the nature of Eritrean relation with Egypt will very much influence how US behaves toward Eritrea. All in all, following Ethio-Eritrean friendship, US has no better policy choice than embrace Eritrea. Now the focus will decisively shift to the Nile + Ethio-Sudan diplomacy.

If that really happened, it would accelerate the democratization process in Eritrea. It's foreign animosity from near & far that has made Eritreans jittery thusfar & forced them to choose, "the Devil you know" option. People misconstrue that as fear of dictatorial repression, but it absolutely isn't!

As an Eritrean, I obviously know and meet many Eritreans. You'd be hard pressed to find one, who fears PIA. Some hate him though, yes, for sure!

[Abere]

In any case, Ethiopia and Eritrea should open their eyes wide open. I don't the need for anyone country to meddle in their affairs. The Tigre province and it's Awuraja is simply a domestic affair's issue. It will be unacceptable for any foreign delegations to meddle. I think Ethiopia and Ethiopians have to be more cautious more than anytime in history not to fall into traps. As to me it is more about how to make Ethiopia docile on the issue of Abay river and do historical favor to Egypt, an important characters in the Middle East politics. Watch out! Ethiopians never sign any deal or treaties while we are living in a very unfair world. Even the weak Sudan, using a White dude's note, I mean Britain's military's general personal memo, is crying now at some point that general had a dream of hacking fertile land from Ethiopia. And these cowards all of a sudden are trying their @[deleted] off. Imagine an ordinary general trying to sit with an Emperial Kingdom of Ethiopia. The bottom-line is ,we have to secure our sovereignty over all natural wealth/resources. We have talent, huge population resource, record of invincibility, fairness, empathy and we can transform our country into breadbasket and hub of technology. This is clear to the rest of the world, and we should make this a reality to ourselves. We have to stand hand in hand to stop foreign entities aspiring to stymie our progress and dream.

[Fed_Up]

It is all about your Abay Dam and any wealth they can symphony from your nation and keep you dirt poor. It has nothing to do with Eritrea. The only thing they attack Eritrea is because with Eritrea by Ethiopia side, Egypt will NOT win. So, they tried their best to isolate Ethiopia from its best ally and make Ethiopia the sitting duck to the Arabs.

This is the game!! Ethiopians need to open and read how the game is playing if you wanna be a strong, prosperous and influential nations. Considering the enemies within and outside, this is a the time of make it or break it to Ethiopia’s survival as a nation. You all must stand united. Remember their is no smooth ride seeking the true freedom and prosperity... it will be bumpy and rough that you already on it. It will not be as worst as what Ethiopia went through for the last 2 years. Don’t give up and kneel down at 11th hours.
Remember if it was Ethiopia at loss in the game, they would NOT be this much noisy and fussing from the west.


Hold your Ground, Ethiopia. The only way to see the bright future!

I am just sayin

Zmeselo,

My thinking is that US is redesigning its post-TPLF Horn policy. I also believe that what I said about Ethiopia also applies for Eritrea; that is US can't put old style pressure on Eritrea any more. And, America can't tell Abiye how to relate with Eritrea but what America will do is that they put a lot pressure on everybody toward internal democratization in Eritrea. These are the areas that Abiye will have no good answers to defend Isayas. As far as Eritrean forces in Tigray, it is becoming irrelevant in post-TPLF Tigray. Remember, why would US continue to isolate Eritrea? It doesn't make sense. US is in a better position on the Red Sea by having positive influence on Eritrea rather than isolate and destabilize Eritrea. TPLF gone that calculus is of no value any longer.

[Sam Ebalalehu]

The America’s influence in East Africa is exaggerated. Ethiopia is a thriving country. Within a few years, less than a decade, she is able to have enough food to her people, and might have the potential to export.
Some of the American politicians thinking that Ethiopia is poor, and remains poor, so that our foreign aid pressure her to behave as we say so do not know about the new Ethiopia being born : it is an Ethiopia that says [deleted] off with your aid . Ethiopia is going to be a proud, self-sufficient country that will not be dictated by any country no matter how rich and powerful might be.
I already fall in love with the new Ethiopia emerging.

[Jaegol]

Good discussion gents!!!

I wonder who the African experts accompanying the senator? If the old black ladies that were tplf friends, they will have a trap for Abiy to choose.
I would not be surprised if Rice or Fraser or Smith asking Abiy to betray Eritrea and they will set Abiy free of any wrongdoing, and become their new meles 2.0 their slave or telalaki? Tough choice for Abiy ahead?

[Sam Ebalalehu]

If the Biden administration has a little knowledge about the new Ethiopia, it will not choose Susan Rice to accompany Senator Coons . Susan Rice is academically smart. No doubt about that. Even has a son who is a Stanford university Republican students president or something. But she is a political illiterate. She has a hard time to separate politics from personal feelings. The late Meles exploited her shortcomings, and to this day she is a TPLF foot soldier.
She should willingly abstain to involve in Ethiopian politics. She is not impartial.

[Horus]

I will be totally surprised if Biden sends one of those black ladies as African experts. The fact that he is sending Mr. Coons a Yale divinity and law graduate and a service oriented relief volunteer in Kenya to be his special emissary is an indication of a new fact finding and feedback process. The world knows the negative energy Rice generates when it comes to Ethiopia. I expect a very respectful and calm discussion between Abiye and the soft spoken Coons. Otherwise, why send a special envoy? There is new ambassador Geeta who knows Ethiopia very well and the rest. We shall see.

[ZEMEN]

I will be totally surprised if Biden sends one of those black ladies as African experts. The fact that he is sending Mr. Coons a Yale divinity and law graduate and a service oriented relief volunteer in Kenya to be his special emissary is an indication of a new fact finding and feedback process. The world knows the negative energy Rice generates when it comes to Ethiopia. I expect a very respectful and calm discussion between Abiye and the soft spoken Coons. Otherwise, why send a special envoy? There is new ambassador Geeta who knows Ethiopia very well and the rest. We shall see.

You have a good grasp on the situation but the solo mission of the US is to sow some kinds of misunderstand between Ethiopia and Eritrea. That was US and EU nightmare the cooperation between Eritrea and Ethiopia. We shall see how strong Abiy is? I have no doubt about Eritrea and president Isaias, they have stood for the last 27 years and i don't see falling in to the US trap. Abiy must stand up and he have the greatest opportunity to turn Ethiopia to the better country.

[Jaegol]

Great article by the one and only Al Mariam on president Susan Rice and tplf
https://www.google.com/amp/s/ecadforum. ... istration/

[Horus]

Zemen,
Politics be it war or diplomacy has a driving motive. The entity that always wanted Ethio-Eritrean conflict was TPLF because it had the ambition of controlling Assab and then go for independent Tigray. With the demise of TPLF, why would EU or US seek Ethio-Eritrean conflict? The EU core motivation is prevention of refugee influx into Southern Europe. The US core motivation is the control of Red Sea and the Region. So, if there is any divergence of interest between US and Eritrea or Ethiopia, it will be around those issues. So we are back to high stake geopolitical game situation and I believe both Esu and Abiye are capable of joining the game. Remember, there are many other major pieces on the board - Russia, China, Germany, UK, Arabs, Turky, India etc ....

[Sam Ebalalehu]

I read here Eritreans and Ethiopians having a lively discussion about how the American politics affect their region. I love it. But I argue it is Ethiopia, and Eritrea alone who could chart their future, not America for them.
As for choosing International fiends Eritrea and Ethiopia should base friendship from their countries personal interest. It is a new ball game. US dictating the future of third world countries is a thing of the past.

[Horus]

Great article by the one and only Al Mariam on president Susan Rice and tplf
https://www.google.com/amp/s/ecadforum. ... istration/

Prof. Al Mariam's article perfectly describes what went down within Biden transition team when TPLF was well and alive. Rice fully believed in the invincibility of Woyane and she premised her grand strategy on the military might of TPLF. Now, that has evaporated. Rice has no material force in Ethiopia to execute her ambition of regime change in Ethiopia. If Biden tries such and adventure, that is what I called The American Quagmire in Ethiopia. It will not happen.

Rather I am visualizing the kind of discussion taking place inside the Biden circle: what is the best thing to do post-TPLF? Politics is like physics - it abhors vacuum, power vacuum that is. USA will not directly militarily invade Ethiopia and effect a regime change. Ethiopians, the children of Adwa will never allow that to happen. Ditto!

[Zmeselo]

Zemen,
Politics be it war or diplomacy has a driving motive. The entity that always wanted Ethio-Eritrean conflict was TPLF because it had the ambition of controlling Assab and then go for independent Tigray. With the demise of TPLF, why would EU or US seek Ethio-Eritrean conflict? The EU core motivation is prevention of refugee influx into Southern Europe. The US core motivation is the control of Red Sea and the Region. So, if there is any divergence of interest between US and Eritrea or Ethiopia, it will be around those issues. So we are back to high stake geopolitical game situation and I believe both Esu and Abiye are capable of joining the game. Remember, there are many other major pieces on the board - Russia, China, Germany, UK, Arabs, Turky, India etc ....

In the past, the Red Sea "real estate", was important for the western world. The Federation of Eritrea with Ethiopia & then the silence when it was violated, the opening of he 1st American base in Africa (kagnew station) is a testament to that.

Today, in this high tech world of Satellites & all that, the geographical position of Eritrea is not that important anymore. What's important is killing the Eritrean "disobedient" spirit of self reliance, lest that idea spreads to other States in Africa.

[Horus]