KEY POINTS
- According to a recent UN update, more than 2.2 million people have been displaced and allegations of human rights abuses by security forces have drawn international condemnation.
- On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for an international investigation into the fighting between the region’s former ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and its allies.
- The continuation of conflict presents a further roadblock to an economy ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic. The IMF has forecast 0% GDP growth in real terms in 2021.
Four months after the Ethiopian government declared victory, conflict continues to escalate in the northwestern state of Tigray, hitting the country’s economic recovery prospects and diplomatic ties.
On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for an international investigation into the fighting between the region’s former ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and its allies.
Meanwhile Berhane Kidanemariam, the deputy chief of mission at the Ethiopian embassy in Washington, resigned in protest against what he called the “genocidal war.” He accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, of leading Ethiopia down a “dark path toward destruction and disintegration.”
According to a recent UN update, more than 2.2 million people have been displaced and allegations of human rights abuses by security forces have drawn international condemnation. The European Union, meanwhile, has suspended $109 million in aid to the country, and the U.S. has withheld $130 million in budgetary support until humanitarian access to the Tigray region is granted.
Abiy told the African Union council on Tuesday that the Ethiopian government had taken “concrete steps to address alleged human rights abuses” and vowed to collaborate with UN agencies.
Economic headwinds
The continuation of conflict presents a further roadblock to an economy ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic. The IMF has forecast 0% GDP growth in real terms in 2021.
Ethiopia’s Ministry of Trade and Industry estimates that the closure of factories and mining sites in Tigray since early November is costing the Ethiopian economy around $20 million per month, while communications blackouts continue to obscure the scale of the damage to industry in the state itself.
However, Abiy appears to favor a military solution to the conflict, despite mounting fears that it could spill out beyond the region.
“The months ahead are unlikely to see any major concessions by Ethiopia’s federal government, as the conflict continues to feed ethno-nationalist tensions across other regions of Ethiopia and threatens to erode the country’s economic recovery prospects,” Robert Besseling, CEO of Pangea-Risk, noted in a report last week, labelling the ongoing conflict a “simmering civil war.”
Continue reading