Dear Eden:
I understand that your cause is the revival of TPLF, and your success is unlikely
Etiyopiyans were not ultimately happy with TPLF' s 1991-2018 control over Etiyopiya for three main reasons:
1. it controlled military, political and economic power beyond reasonable proportions vis-a-vis its size and the size of its constituents, and remained unwilling to reform;
2. it used that dominant power to extend its sovereignty over areas that were not its ethnic groups' lands; and
3. its giving priority to a State structure based on extreme ethnic federalism in a country, where clear borders between ethnic territories didn't exist, destabilized Etiyopiya.
The reform movement brought Abiy Ahmed Ali up to the front to become the new Prime minister of Etiyopiya. TPLF stood up against Abiy' s reforms, and went back to Tigraiy to prepare to fight against them, while Abiy was also strengthening the forces of reform to defend the reforms. These irreconcilable differences culminated into TPLF's military attack on November 03, 2020, on the Federal Defense Forces that were stationed in Tigraiy. PM Abiy, who tolerated differences with TPLF so much, believing that negotiations or national elections would resolve domestic disagreements, on November 04, 2020, determined to counteract TPLF' s strike. TPLF initiated and therefore is the culprit of the current war in Tigraiy.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ ... in-tigray/
Since the war in Tigray broke out, a proliferating number of theories outlining an emerging regional war (with external involvement) have been advanced by analysts and pundits. The war in Tigray, and escalating clashes in a disputed area of the Sudan-Ethiopia border, have formed the starting point for such claims.
thinks Danse Macabre.
https://acleddata.com/2021/01/21/red-li ... of-africa/
No matter what others theorize, Eritrea ( taking all significant factors into consideration) has to let others know what its main concerns are. And
Afwerki said that Eritrea is not a party in the ongoing tension, noting that his country calls for a peaceful solution between the two sides in a way that serves peace, stability, and security in the region.
Among other things, the reason for the letter from Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki to Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdock (received on Wednesday February 24, 2021) was to explain Eritrea' s concerns, in writing, which is good.
https://see.news/eritrea-voices-concer ... -dispute/
Asharq Al-Awsat emphasized Eritrea' s possible non-involvement in the conflict in "Eritrea Denies Involvement in Border Conflict Between Sudan, Ethiopia", and more.
https://english.aawsat.com/home/article ... n-ethiopia What is more is that both Egyptian and Sudanese interests regarding Etiyopiya' s GER Dam, as described in "Egypt Backs Call to Internationalize Ethiopia Dam Dispute", are discussed, and not your cause (the revival of TPLF) is even noted in any of their scenarios.
https://english.aawsat.com/home/article ... am-dispute For many reasons, PIA's letter makes a lot of sense when seeing it from short-term and long-term interests of all countries or people-groups involved.
Regardless of how the territorial ownership issue of lands west of the Tekezze River is going to be handled in the future, it is now occupied by the Etiyopiyan AmHara Regional State. Geography and its atrocious and abusive past towards the AmHara and Tigraiyans shall definitely make it strategically very difficult for any power to directly help TPLF revive again. And helping TPLF at this time is the worst thing to do regarding
" peace, stability, and security in the region." You might be out of luck.
The best thing to do is for the people of Tigraiy to pick themselves up from the final disaster TPLF had brought them by building a new political representative body through elections and republican (not TPLF' s "revolutionary") democracy. The people have to move on past the TPLF era in an organized way, and they need a courageous and skillful leadership now. If you think that there is a need to settle the issue of Tigraiy' s self-determination, (after the borderlines of Tigraiy are defined and accepted by their neighbors) let the people of Tigraiy express their destiny (secede or remain Etiyopiyan) in a referendum. But, as far as I can see, the people of Tigraiy should drop their exclusive emotional attachment to the territory west of Tekkeze (it seems it was not exclusively Tigraiy's land to begin with) and make Etiyopiya practically their new and wider territory, where they could live and prosper in peace by sharing it with other co-nationals.
eden wrote: ↑25 Feb 2021, 18:47
YAY,
Try to see my perspective. Ask yourself:
1. Why the letter now, at the very time Sudan moved to areas under Ethiopia for so long?
2. Since it's Ethiopia who is saying it lost land, wouldn't it make sense to send that letter to Ethiopia instead?
