First of all I just want to make clear that i am not a supporter of PP or TPLF as this war is between the two, one using Ethiopian army, the other using the people of Tigray. PP uses law and order as a cover while TPLF claims PP is illegitimate and unconstitutional. What ever the reason is, this war is
unnecessary war with unpredictable consequences.
History tells us King Teodros had and expedition to make Shoa submit to his kingdom (anyone remembering this poem? Negus Tewodros endet tewaredu, ye Shoan mequanint eji nestew hedu). King Menilik also did same to submit the different parts of today's Ethiopia under his kingdom. Abiy is doing the same to make Tigry to Abiy's Kingdom.
Very sad to see a poor country like Ethiopia opens a full fledged war on its own citizens under the disguise of law and order. Obviously what the current war tells is that "Tigry is not part of Ethiopia". One thing is clear: it is my believe that Ethiopia will never be the same again one way or another.
The war will not be as easy as the Ethiopian media make as believe. If it was, three weeks would have been enough to declare TPLF is done and dusted. Three days has replaced another one and the ultimatum continues. Mengistu had the biggest African army with the lowest moral. We all know how it ended. Anyone who fights for just cause is always immerge the winner no matter how long it might take. Fighting for a just value/cause gives you moral and dedication. So what is the value of fighting your own people with full fledged war? How will the moral of the fighters in the long run, specially if this war is prolonged? Where and how do the fighting army of Ethiopia gets the moral to believe in the war they are participating in?
The other worrisome part of this war is the possibility of expanding to Eritrea and other nearby countries. I will not be surprised if Somalis make a move to unite with fellow Somalis.
So this war could be the most consequential war in Ethiopia's history. I do not mind Ethiopia bombing Asmara or Eritrea bombing Mekele if the two are in war. To see Tigray bombing Bahirdar and Ethiopian army bombing Mekele is simply disgusting to say the least. PP fighting TPLF in the name of Ethiopia. There are people who even say this war is between Amhara PP and TPLF due to the heavy involvement Amhara region security forces in the war. Amhara media and its affiliates present the war as the war between Amhara regional state and Tigray reginal state.
Finally all the war achieved so far is making the international community recognize Tigray as a victim of its own federal government. So where does that lead to? Only god knows .