I think it would be wrong if Abiy start war against tplf. Rather, the winning strategy would be:
1) Seal any bank transfer to/from tplf party or members account, both locally and internationally
2) Seal all sides of the border: afar, Amhara, Eritrea,Sudan
3) Seal all air spaces from/to Tigray
4) Confecicate all assets of Effort and associated companies
5) let the locals in Tigray deal with the problem
6) Abiy should focus on and clean up olf remnants and savage qerros. They are his weak link and threat not only for himself but the stability of the country. Because, if he remains soft and passive as he has done so far, other parts of the country will rise against him
Re: Urgent Advice to PM Abiy : strategy to deal with tplf
Do you think these measures will not force TPLF to open war, even if Abiy wants to avoid it? Definitely, before launching war these are some of the usual measures taken - there still will be war.
Re: Urgent Advice to PM Abiy : strategy to deal with tplf
The only way out is to negotiate and resolve the problem peacefully. Tigray is ready to defend it's survival. Any action by Abiy or anybody that affects the survival of Tigray shall be dismantled!
Re: Urgent Advice to PM Abiy : strategy to deal with tplf
@Abere,
Right, it seems that tplf want the war to ignite even by provoking either the Amhara region or even Eritrea. In my view, if that war ignites, tplf would score more by distablizing the Oromia region than they could score from any confrontations with Amhara or Eritrea. Thus, as Abiy said it, he should not start the war and needs to intelligently handle any provocation tplf may made. The above measures would be effective if Abiy at the same time contains the issues in Oromia. Especially cutting any links to externals, by sealing borders, air spaces, bank accounts. And the foreign affairs should work to deport other violent social media activists and agents of both tplf and olf. If the last resort is war because tplfs provocation makes things worse, given with the above measures, it could be difficult for tplf unless they use it as exit strategy to die by bullets than dying with alcohol
Right, it seems that tplf want the war to ignite even by provoking either the Amhara region or even Eritrea. In my view, if that war ignites, tplf would score more by distablizing the Oromia region than they could score from any confrontations with Amhara or Eritrea. Thus, as Abiy said it, he should not start the war and needs to intelligently handle any provocation tplf may made. The above measures would be effective if Abiy at the same time contains the issues in Oromia. Especially cutting any links to externals, by sealing borders, air spaces, bank accounts. And the foreign affairs should work to deport other violent social media activists and agents of both tplf and olf. If the last resort is war because tplfs provocation makes things worse, given with the above measures, it could be difficult for tplf unless they use it as exit strategy to die by bullets than dying with alcohol
Re: Urgent Advice to PM Abiy : strategy to deal with tplf
@Axumzena,
What sort of negotiation do you think is acceptable for tplf ?
Who said Tigray won't survive? Its a common sense that tplf is not Tigray and Tigray is not Tplf. Party or political group is different from people at large.
What sort of negotiation do you think is acceptable for tplf ?
Who said Tigray won't survive? Its a common sense that tplf is not Tigray and Tigray is not Tplf. Party or political group is different from people at large.