Abyi will not be the one who started the war between agme land and the rest of Ethiopia. We have to realize something about the rise of Abyi.
Two years ago nobody knows who Abyi Ahemed is but in a few months he by the help of Mekonen of Amhara bit the Agames diplomatically and Abyi become our prime mister. He releases political prisoners and promised peace with Eritrea. In few months he become to world-class prominence almost like a political celebrity.
Immediately the europian union called him for a meeting open forum transmitted all over the world and praised him as if he had a magic wand to made peace in Ethiopia and with Eritrea. My curiosity is why they shot un unknown person to such a level of prominence do not take me wrong I am very happy and support Abyi because he kicked the Agames out of Addis and release the prisoners also put the criminal jawarian and the thief Agames in their own jail.
Europe is a big problem from the right-wing parties about the number of immigrants. Eritreans, Agames in the name of Eritreans flooded Europe. If yo remember EU lead by Germany granted 700 million a year to help immigrants in their own country. Agames took the money and filled the refugee center with agames by posing as Eritrean and even flooded the street of Europe.
Then they come up with an idea to carve peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea so that the immigrant can be deported easily back to their home country.
In order to do that they picked Abyi to be the peacemaker and even gave him Nobel price with a million dollar. That is the key, he came to power to keep immigrants out of Europe by declaring peace between the two countries. So can't start a war and send a new wave of immigrants to Europe no matter what happened he should look friend and visit Asmara frequently to continue the roll.
For the agames their greed cost them their power they flood the europian and Arab streets with agames posing as Eritrean and EU cut their throat.
Actually the return of OLF also part of the deal because this old [deleted] gala they were sucking the german tax pair money for 50 years now they do not have any case for political asylum. All gala and agame will be deported one by one.
To conclude Abyi knows the danger of starting war and sending a new wave of agame immigrant to the street of Europe so he will not fight Agames but he will starve them to death or let them kill each other in that case EU is for him until the last agame.
Re: ኣብይ ምድረበዳ ትግራይን በፍጹም ኣይወጋም ምክኛቱም
Your analysis is rational but hypothetical. Abbiy will not hit the agames for another reason, looming civil war. He can defeat the weyanes, but he can not eliminate them. Doing so, makes the Oromo question far more dangerous. If defeated TPLF can dance as guerrilla fighter. Technically, Abbiy becomes another Mengistu Hailemariam. He will most likely suspend more elections. The amharas may stand with him, but he is just another temporary ally. Best for Abby, resolve this peacefully and find a way to deal with the agames in more logical and acceptable to everyone. Before he loses his base, bring the Oromo cohesiveness behind him if it is not too late already.
Re: ኣብይ ምድረበዳ ትግራይን በፍጹም ኣይወጋም ምክኛቱም
I disagree with respectfully,
It is a well-known fact that more than 50% of our economy is dependent on foreign aid and loan. Those aids and loans come with a string attached to them including choosing who is their puppet. Abyi is no different he was in the right moment and the right time. The Agames Meles was so stubborn he thought he came to power through his tiny ignorant fighters. And he started to threaten the USA and its allies if they do not meet his interset, allow him to kill and displace every one in Ethiopia who is not Agame, will switch his side with China and showed them a rogue attitude. Then through the proxy of Egypt because of their interest on Abay they eliminate the midget Meles and kicked the TPLF Agames out of the power play.
They brought Abyi in power for two main reasons. The first one as I mentioned before to make a peace pact and stop the Eritrean refuge from europian streets. Here, I want to make clear that when I say Eritrean almost all of the immigrants be it Somali, Sudan , Agames and OLF all claim false Eritrean identity because the west sanction Eritrea as a failed state and harbor of terrorism and this sanction gave to that immigrant a political reason to stay in Europe. The Europian through the TPLF agents gave concrete intelligence about this immigrant in exchange for a loan.
The second reason is the case of OLF, since Germany is the head of EU economically and politically, no matter what kind of government came in power in Ethiopia the OLF always claimed to be prosecuted asked for protection in Germany. In order to address this issue and the pressure by the wing parties.
They agreed on a liberal Oromo origin prime minster who can agree with Eritrean and also alow OLF to return back to Ethiopia so that the Oromo case will not have any legal ground in Eu like Germany,Sweden, Norway Finland because these are mostly the countries fell for OLF mischief. England, France, and Italy not that much.
So the main reason out ways the foreign interest than any other local reason for not going to war. Actually Eritrea and Ethiopia are itching to destroy the agames. The proof is that the central government still gives budgetary support because some of them came from this country. Is it not an irony your feed your enemy so that it can stay healthy to fight you. Think about it. The EU doesn't want another wave ignorant and disease infected agme refugee.
It is a well-known fact that more than 50% of our economy is dependent on foreign aid and loan. Those aids and loans come with a string attached to them including choosing who is their puppet. Abyi is no different he was in the right moment and the right time. The Agames Meles was so stubborn he thought he came to power through his tiny ignorant fighters. And he started to threaten the USA and its allies if they do not meet his interset, allow him to kill and displace every one in Ethiopia who is not Agame, will switch his side with China and showed them a rogue attitude. Then through the proxy of Egypt because of their interest on Abay they eliminate the midget Meles and kicked the TPLF Agames out of the power play.
They brought Abyi in power for two main reasons. The first one as I mentioned before to make a peace pact and stop the Eritrean refuge from europian streets. Here, I want to make clear that when I say Eritrean almost all of the immigrants be it Somali, Sudan , Agames and OLF all claim false Eritrean identity because the west sanction Eritrea as a failed state and harbor of terrorism and this sanction gave to that immigrant a political reason to stay in Europe. The Europian through the TPLF agents gave concrete intelligence about this immigrant in exchange for a loan.
The second reason is the case of OLF, since Germany is the head of EU economically and politically, no matter what kind of government came in power in Ethiopia the OLF always claimed to be prosecuted asked for protection in Germany. In order to address this issue and the pressure by the wing parties.
They agreed on a liberal Oromo origin prime minster who can agree with Eritrean and also alow OLF to return back to Ethiopia so that the Oromo case will not have any legal ground in Eu like Germany,Sweden, Norway Finland because these are mostly the countries fell for OLF mischief. England, France, and Italy not that much.
So the main reason out ways the foreign interest than any other local reason for not going to war. Actually Eritrea and Ethiopia are itching to destroy the agames. The proof is that the central government still gives budgetary support because some of them came from this country. Is it not an irony your feed your enemy so that it can stay healthy to fight you. Think about it. The EU doesn't want another wave ignorant and disease infected agme refugee.
Re: ኣብይ ምድረበዳ ትግራይን በፍጹም ኣይወጋም ምክኛቱም
Lakeshore,
You make a very intelligent and educated analysis. The three billion dollars loan made out to Ethiopia from the Emirates for Abbiy being a good chauffer backs up your claim
. Particularly the Germans are wary about the increasing political asylum seekers. Israel was built by diaspora money. Perhaps Isayas was hopping the Israeli effect would happen to Eritrea after all Civil war is the last thing Ethiopia needs right now. Isayas would love to cream the agames. Isayas can not stand anybody or any organization that opposes him. I am hoping, he does not go to war with the weyanes. Eritreans are divided and angry. He can not afford it. Abbiy can not attack the Weyanes in concert with Eritrea. That would entail treason. Eritrea is a foreign power. What I really worry about is, Abbiy may try to punish the agames through Eritrea. If that happens, Eritrea could be ingulfed in civil war. It will not be a clean war. Abbiy needs to find another way to punish them. Isayas needs to reform the long overdue political process in Eritrea and bring lasting peace to the people of Eritrea. ummmmm! it will never happen. That is not him. 
Europeans need to deal with Isayas directly.
You make a very intelligent and educated analysis. The three billion dollars loan made out to Ethiopia from the Emirates for Abbiy being a good chauffer backs up your claim
. Particularly the Germans are wary about the increasing political asylum seekers. Israel was built by diaspora money. Perhaps Isayas was hopping the Israeli effect would happen to Eritrea after all Civil war is the last thing Ethiopia needs right now. Isayas would love to cream the agames. Isayas can not stand anybody or any organization that opposes him. I am hoping, he does not go to war with the weyanes. Eritreans are divided and angry. He can not afford it. Abbiy can not attack the Weyanes in concert with Eritrea. That would entail treason. Eritrea is a foreign power. What I really worry about is, Abbiy may try to punish the agames through Eritrea. If that happens, Eritrea could be ingulfed in civil war. It will not be a clean war. Abbiy needs to find another way to punish them. Isayas needs to reform the long overdue political process in Eritrea and bring lasting peace to the people of Eritrea. ummmmm! it will never happen. That is not him. Europeans need to deal with Isayas directly.Re: ኣብይ ምድረበዳ ትግራይን በፍጹም ኣይወጋም ምክኛቱም
Yes Aurora your analysis will justify the means. However, if you notice what Abyi is doing right now he is provoking the TPLF goons. He knows them very well and understands how their inflated ego works. The Agmes feel to show their military forgetting according to the Ethiopian sovereignty if they went against the government they are considered rogue and outlaws and that gave Abyi the means to buy weapons or invite any nation to help him overcome the insurgency. Who is in the best position and proximity for this than Eritrea no one. So he can legally invite Eritrean army to quell the agames.
The only issue here will be once a war started there will be migration and EU does not like that.
Gues what is happening right now to overcome that problem is that Eritrea stationed it army in Gedarif Sudan, in Assab, Agames are in circled they can not go anywhere, They can't go to Amhara region, Afar region, Eritrea or Sudan that means there is not refugee that run to EU and that means they do not have a hoot about dead Agames. Then it is a payback time or surrender. It is happening.
The only issue here will be once a war started there will be migration and EU does not like that.
Gues what is happening right now to overcome that problem is that Eritrea stationed it army in Gedarif Sudan, in Assab, Agames are in circled they can not go anywhere, They can't go to Amhara region, Afar region, Eritrea or Sudan that means there is not refugee that run to EU and that means they do not have a hoot about dead Agames. Then it is a payback time or surrender. It is happening.