Why Abiy could not stabilize Ethiopia over the last two years?
Posted: 14 Jul 2020, 07:06
- He did not follow the constitution he vowed to respect and adhere to.
- He took excessive risk by rapidly allowing all armed and non armed groups to enter to Ethiopia. That was a trap Egypt and Isaias prepared for him and , that gave Egypt and Isaias Afeworki to have more leverage on him and to further destabilize Ethiopia until he signs the water share agreement Egypt courted him to sign( So far he only gave verbal commitment two years ago in Cairo)
- He started unholy and unprincipled love affair with Isaias Afeworki, the key issue that frustrated his relationship with TPLF and the Tigray people. Currently Isaias has controlled him and it looks Abiy is already under indirect captive of Isaias.
- He did not focus on key internal issues and he did not engage key internal stakeholders to solve problems and establish consensus. He failed to build trust with TPLF which were flexible and ready to work with him( such as Amb Syeoum Mesfin, Dr. Debrestion etc.)
- He focused too much on building his image both internally and externally and he wasted a lot of time traveling abroad and renovating his palace and gave excessive focus to seedling plantations etc( good but a lot of drama)
- He felt secured by the support he got from external stakeholders such as neocolonizers, Arabs and Isaias. This external security made him to ignore interest and griviances of internal key stakeholders and he ultimately become a dictator.
- He did not listen to advise and criticisms timely from key stake holders such as Jawar Mohammed and other Oromo leaders who had a major contribution in bringing change. Instead he tried to bribe and divide key figures of Kerro and Oromo elite's . Whoever killed Hachalu, he is a victim of Abiy's "bribe and divide" strategy he implemented in Oromia and elsewhere.
- He failed to understand why EPRDF /OLF created the Federal system and he has been following the advises of those internal and external forces that are determined to destroy the Federal system.
The only way forward for him is:
- Immediately release all prisoners
- create a forum with all key internal stakeholders and develop a road map for the next one to two years
- Stop immediately the interference of Isaias on Ethiopia's internal affairs
- Reestablish relationship with TPLF and build their trust( both has to stop immediatly the negative propaganda against each other).
If Abiy fails to do the above Ethiopia will be facing civil war and ultimately will be divided into two. We will have a weak and voulernable Ethiopia which will be an easy prey of Egypt, Arabs and a playground of jehadists rather that the prosperous Ethiopia Abiy has promised us.
- He took excessive risk by rapidly allowing all armed and non armed groups to enter to Ethiopia. That was a trap Egypt and Isaias prepared for him and , that gave Egypt and Isaias Afeworki to have more leverage on him and to further destabilize Ethiopia until he signs the water share agreement Egypt courted him to sign( So far he only gave verbal commitment two years ago in Cairo)
- He started unholy and unprincipled love affair with Isaias Afeworki, the key issue that frustrated his relationship with TPLF and the Tigray people. Currently Isaias has controlled him and it looks Abiy is already under indirect captive of Isaias.
- He did not focus on key internal issues and he did not engage key internal stakeholders to solve problems and establish consensus. He failed to build trust with TPLF which were flexible and ready to work with him( such as Amb Syeoum Mesfin, Dr. Debrestion etc.)
- He focused too much on building his image both internally and externally and he wasted a lot of time traveling abroad and renovating his palace and gave excessive focus to seedling plantations etc( good but a lot of drama)
- He felt secured by the support he got from external stakeholders such as neocolonizers, Arabs and Isaias. This external security made him to ignore interest and griviances of internal key stakeholders and he ultimately become a dictator.
- He did not listen to advise and criticisms timely from key stake holders such as Jawar Mohammed and other Oromo leaders who had a major contribution in bringing change. Instead he tried to bribe and divide key figures of Kerro and Oromo elite's . Whoever killed Hachalu, he is a victim of Abiy's "bribe and divide" strategy he implemented in Oromia and elsewhere.
- He failed to understand why EPRDF /OLF created the Federal system and he has been following the advises of those internal and external forces that are determined to destroy the Federal system.
The only way forward for him is:
- Immediately release all prisoners
- create a forum with all key internal stakeholders and develop a road map for the next one to two years
- Stop immediately the interference of Isaias on Ethiopia's internal affairs
- Reestablish relationship with TPLF and build their trust( both has to stop immediatly the negative propaganda against each other).
If Abiy fails to do the above Ethiopia will be facing civil war and ultimately will be divided into two. We will have a weak and voulernable Ethiopia which will be an easy prey of Egypt, Arabs and a playground of jehadists rather that the prosperous Ethiopia Abiy has promised us.
