As the result of the degeneration of EPRDF , specially after the death of PM Meles, and the sabotage of allied internal and external forces ( including dictator Isaias) during this decade and errors PM Abiy committed over the last two years, Ethiopia is now facing major crises and risk of civil war and disintegration. ESAT also played a key role in propagating ethnic based hate-rate and conflict that is still going on.
PM Abiy has lost the support of the following critically determinant and key stakeholders over the last two years: and he has to urgently come up with positive action to regain trust and confidence:
(1) TPLF and the Tigrayan people because:
- He did not keep the word/promise he gave when he visited Tigray
- He gave blind eye to the closure of roads connecting Amhara and Tigray
- He conducted cheap and false propaganda to marginalize and demonize TPLF and the Tigray people
- Undermining and sabotaging Tigray development( eg, pressurizing forigners not to visit Tigray)
- Still conspiring with the enemies of Tigray( Amhara chauvinists and President Isaias Afeworki)
(2) Oromo people,Oromo political leaders and elites
- By not timely addressing their requests and perceived risk that he is being manipulated by Amhara chauvinists and President Isaias Afeworki to jeopardize the existing Federal system.
- Perceived as divisive and very corrupt
- Dividing Qerro by bribing with money, land and job
- Waging war and killing against the Oromo people
- Recent arrest of the key political leaders
I personally share PM Abiy's "Prosperity Vision" and I appreciate his determination to realize it but I strongly differ on the way he is trying to achieve it. Any change process requires involvement of the key stakeholders through out the change process, that is the acid test for the leader.
If the change process in Ethiopia is facing challenges or is failing, the change leader PM Abiy has to take 100% responsibility and come up with a corrective positive action to regain trust and confidence:
In addition , the major personal weakness of PM Abiy that contributed to loss of confidence by the key stakeholders is his "chameleon personality" which is a major set back for the evolving leader if he cannot timely address it.