MUST READ: A brilliant analysis of the likely scenarios in the general election in May 2020 by Teklebirhan Gebremichael
https://ecadforum.com/2019/10/02/ethiop ... -politics/
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EwnetYashenifal
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EwnetYashenifal
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Re: MUST READ: A brilliant analysis of the likely scenarios in the general election in May 2020 by Teklebirhan Gebremic
These are the likely scenarios that should happen in the upcoming election if we truly want to see a democratic election in Ethiopia that satisfies all constituents, more or less, equally.
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Halafi Mengedi
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Re: MUST READ: A brilliant analysis of the likely scenarios in the general election in May 2020 by Teklebirhan Gebremic
You call it brilliant, I call it chika Angol delusional dreamers: Below quotes stopped me to read the whole article and had good laugh!!!
In a genuinely free and fair election, the EPRDF is almost on track to lose to ABEN in Amhara region, to ARENA and TDP in Tigray, to OLF and OFECO in Oromia, and to political organizations demanding “Killil” in the South Killil, and probably to EZEMA in Addis Ababa.
On the other side of the political argument the TPLF, which is now in de facto hiding in its home region (Killil) of Tigray, is standing firmly in opposition against Abiy Ahemed’s doomed political rescue plan for the EPRDF. It is instead playing with the idea of a confederal arrangement, and if push comes to shove, with the option of outright secession. Both ideas do not sit well with the vast majority of the Tigrean people, who are literally under TPLF lockdown!
Arena and TDP will not get even one vote in Tigray. If Woyane call article 39 the entire Tigray will come out to the street in joyful and approve it 100%. You guys must real fools.
Last edited by Halafi Mengedi on 02 Oct 2019, 12:28, edited 1 time in total.
Re: MUST READ: A brilliant analysis of the likely scenarios in the general election in May 2020 by Teklebirhan Gebremic
Generally his observation is weak and shallow, he is inconsiderate. Actually, we, members in this forum, have tried to go back and forth on this issue immensely. His judgment is almost contrary to our beliefs.
No way, arena will not have a chance to defeat weyane unless something is done, like unification of EPRDF.
His general conclusion on the aftermath of the election is flawed. We believe that in oromia and amara, ABN , OLF and other galla parties with EPRDF will get substantial number of seat. Say for example, EPRDF may have a chance to get half of a seat in both regions.
Well, my general observation on his writing is as follows:
No way, arena will not have a chance to defeat weyane unless something is done, like unification of EPRDF.
His general conclusion on the aftermath of the election is flawed. We believe that in oromia and amara, ABN , OLF and other galla parties with EPRDF will get substantial number of seat. Say for example, EPRDF may have a chance to get half of a seat in both regions.
Well, my general observation on his writing is as follows:
Re: MUST READ: A brilliant analysis of the likely scenarios in the general election in May 2020 by Teklebirhan Gebremic
Well, my general observation on his writing is as follows:
The rest of the 547 parliamentary seats are estimated to be won as follows:
Region most votes to be won by:
• Oromia — OLF, OFECO
• Amhara — ABEN
• Tigray — ARENA, TDP ?????
• South — Parties demanding “Killil” status
• Addis Ababa — EZEMA if endorsed by BALADERA ??????
• Somali Killil — Mustafa’s party
• Others — incumbent parties
The would –be winning parties are expected to declare in their election manifestos that they will form a coalition or even unite with like–manded other political parties and amend or change the constitution as may be necessary to reflect the general will of the Ethiopian people. Accordingly, ABEN, ARENA, TDP, South parties, EZEMA, Mustafa’s party, etc. are likely to form a coalition or even a unity party. (interesting) PM Abiy and his colleagues will switch sides and join the winning coalition or unity party. (interesting) It is likely that PM Abiy may become the new president or prime minister as a gesture of gratitude for his outstanding contribution towards the historic democratic transition in Ethiopia! Of course, what follows is going to be truly historic and unprecedented in the very long history of Ethiopia. Oromia and Amhara would each be re- divided into their historical, administratively manageable provinces, namely Welega, Arssi, Bale, Harage, Gondar, Gojam, Shoa, Wello, etc. with near –autonomous status. Sidama, Welayeta, Gurage, Hadiya, Afar, Somali Gamo, Gedeo, Silte, Kaffa, etc. will also become full-fledged provinces on a par with Wellega, Gondar, etc. Amharic, Oromigna and English (???) will become the official languages of Ethiopia, with all other languages being promoted through their respective language academies All languages in Ethiopia are to be regarded as the collective linguistic wealth of the nation. The Ge’ez alphabet , which may be adapted as necessary, shall be the script for the local languages.
The rest of the 547 parliamentary seats are estimated to be won as follows:
Region most votes to be won by:
• Oromia — OLF, OFECO
• Amhara — ABEN
• Tigray — ARENA, TDP ?????
• South — Parties demanding “Killil” status
• Addis Ababa — EZEMA if endorsed by BALADERA ??????
• Somali Killil — Mustafa’s party
• Others — incumbent parties
The would –be winning parties are expected to declare in their election manifestos that they will form a coalition or even unite with like–manded other political parties and amend or change the constitution as may be necessary to reflect the general will of the Ethiopian people. Accordingly, ABEN, ARENA, TDP, South parties, EZEMA, Mustafa’s party, etc. are likely to form a coalition or even a unity party. (interesting) PM Abiy and his colleagues will switch sides and join the winning coalition or unity party. (interesting) It is likely that PM Abiy may become the new president or prime minister as a gesture of gratitude for his outstanding contribution towards the historic democratic transition in Ethiopia! Of course, what follows is going to be truly historic and unprecedented in the very long history of Ethiopia. Oromia and Amhara would each be re- divided into their historical, administratively manageable provinces, namely Welega, Arssi, Bale, Harage, Gondar, Gojam, Shoa, Wello, etc. with near –autonomous status. Sidama, Welayeta, Gurage, Hadiya, Afar, Somali Gamo, Gedeo, Silte, Kaffa, etc. will also become full-fledged provinces on a par with Wellega, Gondar, etc. Amharic, Oromigna and English (???) will become the official languages of Ethiopia, with all other languages being promoted through their respective language academies All languages in Ethiopia are to be regarded as the collective linguistic wealth of the nation. The Ge’ez alphabet , which may be adapted as necessary, shall be the script for the local languages.