Mereja.Forum

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If federal and regional leaders, in partnership with the military command, can continue to keep dissidents in check — as they have done ruthlessly in Sidama —that would create sufficient space for the necessary political wrangling and continuation of so far rather technocratic democratic reforms. It would also provide the necessary consensus for federal parliamentarians to vote to extend their terms early next year, although there is no constitutional provision for that, and it would likely arouse intensified opposition from TPLF and others, albeit perhaps mostly rhetorical.

The general structure of this transitional set-up could remain just about solid enough to carry on come what may. If there are no signs of a new consensus emerging under the current order, the result may eventually be suspension of the constitution and an Abiy-led transitional government, which would then supercharge the dissent of Amhara opponents, TPLF, OLF, and other federalist forces. More conflict would occur, but even then it may not spread.

https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2019/0 ... ist-front/

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i like Rene.., he is usually close to accurate in his analysis;

in this article though, he feigns to invent a political position for Abiy that doesnt exist within the Oromo political spectrum: yet under estimates the fall out that comes from a Gobena figure who still tends to lead while being off the water!