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Brother Hawzen, let alone me even TPLF itself doesn't know how to handle this situation right now. They are confused af
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It is a curse for them both if they join the new party or if they rejected it. In both cases they lose.
But from today's Debretsion press briefing, it looks like TPLF is making the forming of the new party a legal issue.
You know any party can change its name or program as long as it does it democratically, which EPP did.
TPLF is now claiming, that since EPP has a complete new program which is different than that of the people had "elected" it for, it is no more EPRDF but a new party. And since this is a complete new party and is not EPRDF, it has no mandate to hold the power that EPRDF got through election. I hope you know what they mean by election (that thing in which EPRDF won 100%)
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. TPLF is demanding either the new party resign from power since it is not EPRDF or stay in power but stop from becoming the new party.
If TPLF is consistent with its today's stand (which is hard to tell and we will know after its general assembly meeting soon), the next step might be to go to the courts and file charges against the new party and by that delay the new party from forming. We all know the new party has not much time to register its new name before the election and run on the new platform. TPLF's new strategy seems to try and delay the process by going to the courts and block the new party from getting legal recognition from the election board in time. This gives TPLF the needed time. They are hopping they will in the meantime be bombarding the new party with propaganda calling it a party against federalism, a neftegna party, unitary ahdawi party, amhara party etc. All this propaganda specifically targeted at the Oromo elites and society to force ODP out of this new party and kill the new party by that. Their #1 urgent strategy seems now to buy time so that they have enough time to spread their propaganda with the help of some of their paid Oromo elites who for some reason always get tricked by TPLF. This is what I can read Debretsion is trying to do, if he stays as the chairman after the general assembly which he has called to decide this matter.
Another unexpected and less likely scenario could also come from the general assembly of the TPLF:
The general assembly:
1. will support Debretsion's plan of delay tactic and propaganda and by that blocking ODP from merger and by that killing the new party before forming.
2. will decide to support Abiy (which is unlikely) or it will come up with even more radical idea. In both these cases, Debretsion and the current executive committee may be forced to resign. In this case we have a totally different situation and a whole new political landscape.
UPDATE
One thing I forgot to mention is that TPLF's accusation and charge, if it went to the court, will be defeated very easily. It won't stand for a day because EPRDF never participates in elections as EPRDF but as individual parties. For example in Tigray, EPRDF never was on the ballot but only TPLF. The same goes for Amhara (ANDM) or Oromia (OPDO). So since the coalition EPRDF was not on the ballot, except in Addis Ababa, voters never gave their vote for EPRDF directly. It is always for either TPLF, ANDM, OPDO etc. So the power EPRDF held doesn't come from the ballot but from the individual organizations and these organizations can do change their program, merge with others or do whatever they want. That is also what they did with the new EPP party. TPLF has no say in it. Since the ballot box and EPRDF are not directly linked, the new TPLF charge will not stand in the court and will be dealt fast and easy.