What would you do if you wanted to predict the future during the rule of the Derg? You would have watched the armed rebels at the time. They might not have looked big or powerful then, but they were already the future of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Anyone who believed armed rebellion that is supported by a large segment of the people could simply be crushed was delusional. In many countries, armed rebels eventually win the war.
I know you disagree, but Fano, TDF, and OLA are your future whether you like it or not. I’m not claiming they will govern better than PP, that I don’t know but hope so. What I know for certain is that they will shape Ethiopia’s future after Abiy, and ironically, Abiy either created or enabled all three of them through his sheer incompetence in handling political grievances.
So my advice is this: urge your PP officials to seek a negotiated settlement with the armed rebels, if you truly care about your country. Otherwise, no matter how much you ignore or ridicule them, today’s rebels will absolutely shape the country’s future, for good or for worse.
You can live in a bubble, of course, and hope for some miracle from the sky that lets the government decisively defeat the rebels and rule forever. But don’t come back later and say I didn’t warn you about the country’s fate falling into the hands of rebels commanding hundreds of thousands of troops.
Either the rebels shape your future, or you try now to shape it yourself by abandoning delusion and pushing for a peaceful, negotiated settlement toward a more democratic society. I know you will be አንገተ ደንዳና, stiff necked, like all who hold power, and hand the country’s fate entirely to the rebels. I know this will happen.
Finally, know that Abiy is genuinely good at certain things, modernizing IT and telecommunications among them. But he is hopelessly incompetent when it comes to politics and addressing grievances. Urge PP to sideline him on these matters. Don’t buy into his delusion that he can defeat the people’s political grievances through military force. This approach has already produced more and stronger rebels, and it will only accelerate the country’s march toward a point of no return. Let Abiy build parks, resorts, and projects. Leave politics and the economy to seasoned professionals and mature adults. That is simply not within his capacity.