Mereja.Forum

[sesame]

Just imagine it. For the last 3 years, the 7th grade drop-out leader of crumbling Ethiopia, back-stabbed Eritrea, and had babbled endlessly about his desire to take Assab and the Eritrean Red Sea coast. It was only months before that the idiot was babbling his gratitude on being saved by Eritrea. He and his PP herd continued to push the agenda of aquiring Assab by any means. They had claimed they were getting international recognition for this right to take other people's sovereign lands. In fact, the morons had totally convinced themselves about the issue. And now, we hear that the USA is poised to reverese its two decades old stance on Eritrea and scrap the sanctions it had imposed. Abiy Ahmed must be feeling like his arse is getting drilled by a huge log. Specially as the new development is coming now after the disaster that is happening to his UAE boyfriend.

But to add spice to the news, it is on May 24 that the rumours have it that the USA will lift the sanctions. Although the idiot from Beshasha had signed two peace documents with Eritrea, he had the audacity to declare that he found no evidence of how Eritrea became indpendent. Nobody should be this stupid!

As Esu eloquently put it, Shaebya means

ብሓይልን ታህዲዳትን፡ ኣይርዕድን ኣይምብርከኽን
ብሸጠፍን ዓሎቕን፡ ኣይርዕምን
ብወሽለኽለኽን ሎቕመጽመጽን፡ ክብረተይን ክብርታተይን ኣይሸይጥን
እንተጸበበ ኣይጭነቕን
እንተተረረ ኣይስነፍን
ሰሪሔ ኣይደክምን
ረሃጸይን፡ ደመይን ሂወተይን ኣይበቅቕን
ክሳብ ዕላማይ ዝጭብጥ ኣይሕለልን::

[Fiyameta]

A declassified 1970s CIA report on Ethiopia.

The landlocked Abyssinians resent being called "Black Africans," so much so that they treated the Italian soldiers captured during the battle of Adwa as their "masters", while chopping off the hands and legs of the Black Africans forced to fight under the Italian colonial forces. On November 20, 1896, the Abyssinian Emperor released all the Italian Prisoners of War in honor of the Queen of Italy's birthday.

[Zmeselo]

PRESS RELEASE

https://shabait.com/2026/05/06/%e1%8c%8 ... %e1%8b%b3/

ጋዜጣዊ መግለጺ፡ “ምልዓል እገዳ”

ኣብ’ዚ፡ እቲ ንልዕሊ ዕስራ ዓመታት ኣብ ልዕሊ ኤርትራ ዝጸንዐ ዘይምኽኑይ እገዳታት ንኽለዓል ስጒምቲ ናይ ምውሳድ ተገዳስነት ከምዘሎ ዝእመተሉ ዘሎ ህሞት፡ ንታሪኽን ነቲ ዝበሃል ዘሎ ቅኑዕ ኣንፈት ንምትሓዝን፡ ንድሕሪት ተመሊስካ ዕቱብ ገምጋም ምክያድ ኣገዳሲ’ዩ።

ኣብ መወዳእታ 2009፡ ኣብ ቅንያት ‘ክሪስማስ’፡ ምምሕዳር ኦባማ ዝፈብረኮን ዝደፍኣሉን፡ ዝዀነ ጭብጢ ወይ መርትዖ ዘይነበሮ፣ ዝዀነ ሕጋዊ መስርሕ ዘይተኸተለ ዓላቚ እገዳ፡ ብስም ባይቶ ጸጥታ ሕቡራት ሃገራት ተበዪኑ። መጐታዊ ኲነኔና፡ ሽዑ ኣዊጅና።

እቲ ዝገርም፡ ሽዑ – ናይ ፈደረሽን ሩስያ ወኪል ኣብ ኒውዮርክ፡ ንናይ ምምሕዳር ኦባማ ዓሎቕ ብሙሉእ ኪድግፍ ከሎ፡ ናይ ቻይና ወኪል ከኣ ስማዊ ‘ኣብስተንሽን’ ኣብ’ቲ ግሁድ ዓሎቕ ኣመዝጊቡ።

ድሕሪ ናይ 9 ዓመታት ኣዕናዊ ሳዕቤናት’ቲ ዓላቚ እገዳ፡ ኣብ 2018

እገዳ ይለዓል ኣሎ

ምስ ተባህለ’ውን፡ ዋላ’ኳ ደንጒዩ ዝመጸ እወታዊ ስጒምቲ እንተነበረ፡ “የቐንየልና” ኣይበልናን።

ምእንቲ ሓቂን ፍትሒን ክረጋገጽ፡

ብቐደሙ ስለምንታይ እገዳ?

ኪምለሽ ኢና ጠሊብና።

ዛጊት ከኣ ኣይተመለሸን። ንሸባብ ዝድግፍ ዝነበረን ዘሎን መን’ዩ? ናይ ዓላቚ እገዳታት ተሓታቲ ኸኣ፡ ኣብ ቅድሚ ሕጊ ይቕረብ!

ከም መቐጸልታ ዝምቡዕ ሕርያታት፡ ምምሕዳር ባይደን ንኣመሉ፡ ኣብ 2021 ዓላቚ ዘይሕጋዊ በይናዊ እገዳታት ወሲኑ። ጭንቀትን ቅርሕንቲን ዘበገሶ ዓሎቚ’ዩ ነይሩ። ኣብ ሰዓቱ ኸኣ ተዀኒኑን ተመኪቱን።

ኣብ’ዚ ቅንያት’ዚ፡ እቲ ብሕቡራት መንግስታት ኣመሪካ ዝተበየነ ዘይሕጋዊን በይናዊን እገዳታት ኣብ ቀረባ ግዜ ክለዓል’ዩ ዝብል ጸብጻባት ኣሎ። እዚ ስጒምቲ’ዚ፡ ነቲ ግጉይ ፖሊሲታት ብዘላቕነት ብምእራም፡ ፍትሒ፡ ሕጋውነትን ርትዒን ዘረጋግጽ ክኸውን ተስፋ ንገብር።

ሚኒስትሪ ዜና
ኣስመራ
6 ግንቦት 2026


The Backdrop of Unwarranted Sanctions

At a time of heightened interest, and reportedly, positive and impending measures that may be on the offing to redress unwarranted sanctions imposed on Eritrea for more than two decades now, a sober and retrospective overview of the episodes is perhaps appropriate for matters of historical record and to place the current discourse in its proper perspective.

As it will be recalled, the Obama Administration managed to impose unfair and illicit sanctions on Eritrea on Christmas eve, 24 December 2009, through the UNSC by peddling fabricated allegations that had no basis on fact and law and that were not corroborated by any credible or substantive evidence.

Unfortunately, the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation in New York unreservedly supported this deplorable charade while the Chinese Representative’s stance was confined to nominal “abstention”. Eritrea had no choice, but to deplore and put on record its utter dismay.

The UNSC sanctions were lifted in 2018 after inculcating considerable damage to Eritrea, without any justification whatsoever. Positive and belated as this was, Eritrea’s response was not confined to “gracious acceptance”. It went further to seek explanations on why the sanctions were imposed in the first place; because this was pivotal for purposes of accountability as well as for the maintenance of the requisite standards for the dispensation of international justice. Those queries remain unanswered to date. Who were the real sponsors of Al-Shebaab then and even these days? Who is accountable for the illicit sanctions that were unfairly enforced on Eritrea for almost two decades? Is there any legal recourse to examine these events?

In continuation of its visceral hostility, the Biden Administration again imposed unlawful and unilateral sanctions on Eritrean 2021. Eritrea strongly condemned this illicit act at the time.

There are reports these days that the illegal and unilateral US sanctions will soon be lifted. We earnestly hope that this act will indeed herald an enduring rectification of misguided policies to ensure justice, legality and fairness.

Ministry of Information
Asmara
6 May 2026

[Right]

Be careful, you may still need him. He holds the card but not you.

You have no functioning exports and you have a useless economy, I don’t think the lifting of the sanctions would do much for Eritrea.
Still, you don’t deserve to be sanctioned.
Know your size and limit & keep a low profile. You have an attitude problem and that is not smart.

[Affable]

What sanctions ? What Eritrea made industrial or agriculture products had been forbidden to be exported ? What if anything that Eritrea needs was forbidden to be sold to her . Anything.
The sanctions being lifted means Isayes and his octogenarian generals might fly to USA, or if they had a bank account frozen might be available to them.
In other word, the sanction has no impact in the livelihood of Eritreans.
Life continues as it has been unless ወዳጃችን and his ancient generals are removed from power.

[Fiyameta]

[Meleket]

ከምዡ ገቢሩ ሓቂ ኪዝረብ እንከሎ፡ ደቂ ኤርትራ ብሓበራ ንናይ ፍሒራ ደርፊ ከምዡይ ኣቢሎም ደጋጊሞም የዚሙ

“ሕጂ ግርም ግርም ሕጂ ግርም. . ሕጂ ግርም ኮነ ሕጂ ግርም!”

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=322856

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=310504&start=20

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=308857&start=60

PRESS RELEASE

https://shabait.com/2026/05/06/%e1%8c%8 ... %e1%8b%b3/

ጋዜጣዊ መግለጺ፡ “ምልዓል እገዳ”

ኣብ’ዚ፡ እቲ ንልዕሊ ዕስራ ዓመታት ኣብ ልዕሊ ኤርትራ ዝጸንዐ ዘይምኽኑይ እገዳታት ንኽለዓል ስጒምቲ ናይ ምውሳድ ተገዳስነት ከምዘሎ ዝእመተሉ ዘሎ ህሞት፡ ንታሪኽን ነቲ ዝበሃል ዘሎ ቅኑዕ ኣንፈት ንምትሓዝን፡ ንድሕሪት ተመሊስካ ዕቱብ ገምጋም ምክያድ ኣገዳሲ’ዩ።

ኣብ መወዳእታ 2009፡ ኣብ ቅንያት ‘ክሪስማስ’፡ ምምሕዳር ኦባማ ዝፈብረኮን ዝደፍኣሉን፡ ዝዀነ ጭብጢ ወይ መርትዖ ዘይነበሮ፣ ዝዀነ ሕጋዊ መስርሕ ዘይተኸተለ ዓላቚ እገዳ፡ ብስም ባይቶ ጸጥታ ሕቡራት ሃገራት ተበዪኑ። መጐታዊ ኲነኔና፡ ሽዑ ኣዊጅና።

እቲ ዝገርም፡ ሽዑ – ናይ ፈደረሽን ሩስያ ወኪል ኣብ ኒውዮርክ፡ ንናይ ምምሕዳር ኦባማ ዓሎቕ ብሙሉእ ኪድግፍ ከሎ፡ ናይ ቻይና ወኪል ከኣ ስማዊ ‘ኣብስተንሽን’ ኣብ’ቲ ግሁድ ዓሎቕ ኣመዝጊቡ።

....

ኣብ’ዚ ቅንያት’ዚ፡ እቲ ብሕቡራት መንግስታት ኣመሪካ ዝተበየነ ዘይሕጋዊን በይናዊን እገዳታት ኣብ ቀረባ ግዜ ክለዓል’ዩ ዝብል ጸብጻባት ኣሎ። እዚ ስጒምቲ’ዚ፡ ነቲ ግጉይ ፖሊሲታት ብዘላቕነት ብምእራም፡ ፍትሒ፡ ሕጋውነትን ርትዒን ዘረጋግጽ ክኸውን ተስፋ ንገብር።

ሚኒስትሪ ዜና
ኣስመራ
6 ግንቦት 2026


The Backdrop of Unwarranted Sanctions

At a time of heightened interest, and reportedly, positive and impending measures that may be on the offing to redress unwarranted sanctions imposed on Eritrea for more than two decades now, a sober and retrospective overview of the episodes is perhaps appropriate for matters of historical record and to place the current discourse in its proper perspective.

As it will be recalled, the Obama Administration managed to impose unfair and illicit sanctions on Eritrea on Christmas eve, 24 December 2009, through the UNSC by peddling fabricated allegations that had no basis on fact and law and that were not corroborated by any credible or substantive evidence.

Unfortunately, the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation in New York unreservedly supported this deplorable charade while the Chinese Representative’s stance was confined to nominal “abstention”. Eritrea had no choice, but to deplore and put on record its utter dismay.

....

There are reports these days that the illegal and unilateral US sanctions will soon be lifted. We earnestly hope that this act will indeed herald an enduring rectification of misguided policies to ensure justice, legality and fairness.

Ministry of Information
Asmara
6 May 2026

"ኣሜሪካ ተባረኪ!" የምንለው እኮ ለዚህ ነው። ...

ቅር ያለው ቅራሪ ካልሆነም “ማይ ዮርዳኖስ” መጠጣት ይችላል፡ አይደለም እንዴ?
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/us-t ... ument-says

[Fiyameta]

Political scientists are now conducting a comprehensive study on how the two-decades long sanctions imposed on Eritrea have failed to raise the IQ score of Ethiopia's ruling elite that remains below average at 63.

Many observers believe, while the sanctions on Eritrea were able to provide a desperately-needed emotional release therapy in Ethiopia, it nonetheless had deprived Ethiopians the opportunity to learn from Eritrea's core values that emphasize on the importance of self-reliance, where true independence and human dignity come from. As the saying goes: "What doesn't break you makes you stronger."

Most Ethiopians are now realizing that, aid dependency and debt bondage is the worse kind of sanctions a beggar nation willfully imposes on its own population.

[Temt]

TRUMP’S RED SEA MOVE: Why Eritrea is Replacing Ethiopia?

[Meleket]

“ንቕሓት ኢዩ ወሳኒ . . . ጽንዓት ኢዩ ወሳኒ” በለ ወዲ ትዅል! ሰበይ “ተደምረናል” ክትብል እንከላ፡ “ሄሄ ጉድ ከየምጽኡልና እቶም ታሕተዎት ሰፈር፡ ‘ፈለማ ዶብና ደኣ ብግብሪ አብ ባይታ ንሓንጽጽ’” ቢልና ብኤርትራዊ ጭዉነት ነጻ ርእይቶና ገሊጭና ነቢርና። ከም ሎም እቶም ታሕተዎት ሰፈር “የባህር በር” ዚብል ሙዚቃ ከይወልዑ እንከለዉ ምዃኑ’ኡ። ‘ጠርጥር በለ ወደባ ጥመር’፡ ይብሉኹም ከምዡይ ኢዩ።

ብዝዀነ ብቕንያቱ ዚነፍስ ነፋስ ናጽነት ሃገረ ኤርትራን፡ ከምቱይ ዚበሃሎ ዛሎ ምልኣል እገዳ ባህ ስለዘበለና ዳግማይ ከተስተማቕርዋ እዛ ግጥምና ወስ አቢልናልኩም፡ ንሕና ኤርትራዉያን ደያኑ ማእከልን መስመርን በቲ ልሙድ ኤርትራዊ ጭዉነት ሓበንን ፍናንን! viewtopic.php?f=17&t=169960&p=1619915#p1619915

እዚኣ ግጥሚ ኣብ ልዕሊ መቓብር ዚበርዐነ ጥንግናግ ሽርሒ ሓሳዳት ኾይና ዝገጠምናያ ያ፤ ምስትምቓር ንኣስተማቐርቲ ንገድፎ!

ማዕቀብ እገዳ ካብ ተላዕለ ደጊም

ማዕቀብ እገዳ ካብ ተላዕለ ደጊም፣
ብፍቕሪ ብህድገት እስከ ንሰዓዓም፣
ቅርሕንቲ ኣወጊድና መብጽዓና ንዕመም፣
እቲ ሃሳዲና ይምላእ እቲ ዓይኑ ደም፣
ይቕረ ክንበሃሃል እስከ ንቀዳደም፣
ናብ ደገ ዘይኮነስ ናብ ሃገር ንሳግም።

ደቂ ኤሩ ሽኾር ዓቢ ምስ ንእሽቶ፣
ካብ ዓዲ እንዳማትና ናብ ዓድና ንእቶ፣
ባህ አይበሎ ሓሳድ ሕድሕድ ንፈታቶ።

እቶም ጸላእትና እቶም ዘይሓንኹ፣
ህዝቢ ዚጥብሩ ተንኮል ዚሕርንኹ፣
ብሰላሕታ ወራር እንተ ተንፈሐኹ፣
ፈንጠርጠር እንተበሉ ናብ ዓዲ ኪሶልኩ፣
ኣብ ዓዱ ኣሎ ጅግና ከውድቆም ሓሊኹ።

ትልዝብ ኣቢልና ተፋቂርና ሕድሕድ፣
ሓርነት ኣዊጅና ንእሱር ንቕዩድ፣
ሕጂውን ከምትማል ንሓዝ ነታ ክሳድ፣
ብፍቅሪ ሟሚቕናስ ብስኒት ንሰውድ፣
ጸላኢ ስምረትና ‘እንጦርጦስ’ ይውረድ።

ደቂ ሃላል መሬት ፈለማ እሞ ንስመር፣
ዶብና ተሐንጺጹ በወግዒ ይሰመር፣
ሽዑ ንምርምሮ ጉዳይ ናይ “መደመር”!
ካብ’ቲ ግርሕነትና’ስ ሕጂዃ ንመሃር!
ጉድ ከየምጽኡልና እቶም ታሕተዎት ሰፈር።

ኣስላማይ ክስታናይ ተጋዳላይ ገባር፣
ከምቲ መብጸዓና ሰሚርና ብሓባር፣
ሕድሪ ጀጋኑና ኣብ ሃገር ነተግብር፣
ዶብና እናስመርና ሕድሕድ ንጠማመር።

ህዝቢ ንመንግስቲ ጸኒዑ ዘጽነዐ፣
ሎቅመጽመጽ ከይበለ ብንዋይ ከይሰድዐ፣
ሳላ ዝተጸመመ ዘረባ ብድዐ፣
ሳላ እታ እምነቱ ንመትከል ዘይከድዐ፣
ልቦና ህዝብና ብሓቂ ተርነዐ፣
ኣብ ልዕሊ ክብሩ’ውን ክብሪ ተደረዐ።

ኢዋኡ በዳሊና እዝጊ ጸሊኡሉ፣
ወትሩ ናብ ሕስረቱ ኮሊሉ ኮሊሉ፣
ሳላ ጽንዓት ሕዝቢ ዝበደሀ ኩሉ፣
ፈጋግር ዞባና እቶም ተዃላሉ፣
ብመከተ ህዝቢ ምስተዐዃለሉ፣
እምነትን ጽንዓትን ካብ ልቢ ፈልፊሉ፣
ኣሎኹ ምስ በላ ንኤረይ ሓላሉ፣
ምስክር ኢዩ ኾይኑ ኩሉ ፈናቂሉ፣
ሓርበይናዊት ኣደ ደጊም ዓልልሉ።


ሳዕስዕሞ ሓዳርኻ ኣይትረስዕ!
ብዘይ ሃገር ክብረት የሎን!

[Digital Weyane]

ኡቱ ፈረንጂ ጎይተትና አው ልዕሊ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ዘውረዱዎ ሰፍ ለይብል ማዕቀብ ዕላማኡ ልኽሳኻዕ እና ሸቱኡ ልኽወቅዕ ክብሉ እንኮ ህይወቶም ዝኸፈሉ ኢትዮጵያውያን ወገናተይ ዘኪረ ተንሰቕሲቐ ነቢዐ። ኡቱ ኩሉ ጀግንነቶም ልኸንቱ ኮይኑ ቀርዩ። ዋይ ዋይ ዋይ ዋይ ዋይ

[Zmeselo]

Local News
Various Activities by Diaspora Nationals

https://shabait.com/2026/05/07/various- ... tionals-5/



Asmara, 07 May 2026- Eritrean communities in Switzerland, Australia, Germany, and Saudi Arabia have conducted various activities aimed at strengthening awareness, organizational capacity, and participation in national development drives.

Accordingly, the Eritrean Professionals’ Association in Switzerland conducted its founding congress on 3 May in Zurich.

Underscoring that organization has a significant role in enhancing capacity, Mr. Habtom Zeray, Charge d’Affaires at the Eritrean Embassy in Switzerland and Eritrea’s Permanent Representative to the UN Human Rights Council, expressed expectation that the professionals’ association, in collaboration with other national organizations, will play its due role in enhancing Eritrean capacity as well as in upholding national interests.

Mr. Ismail Mohammed-Nur, head of Public and Community Affairs, congratulated the members of the association for holding their founding congress and wished them success in all their future endeavors.

Mr. Isaias Hadgu, acting chairman of the association, said that the objective and mission of the association is to strengthen contribution to national affairs by coordinating Eritrean professionals, as well as to encourage young Eritreans born in the Diaspora to strengthen their attachment to their homeland.

Dr. Toni Locher, supporter of the Eritrean struggle for independence and Eritrea’s Honorary Consul in Switzerland, said that the EPLF is an organization that emerged victorious through strong organization and perseverance, and called on Eritrean nationals in Switzerland to face challenges in unison with their Embassy.



In the same vein, seminars and activity assessment meetings have been organized for members of Eritrean communities, as well as PFDJ, National Union of Eritrean Women, and YPFDJ organizations, in the Australian cities of Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane, and Sydney under the theme

Our Unity and Social Harmony: Guarantee for Our Existence.

Mr. Yasin Omar, head of Public and Community Affairs, provided a briefing focusing on conflict resolution and management.

Mr. Endrias Abraham, Eritrea’s Consul General in Australia, on his part called on nationals to strengthen organization, unity, and contribution to national development programs.



The German branch of the National Union of Eritrean Women also conducted its 22nd congress on 25 and 26 April in Frankfurt.

At the congress, in which representatives from 24 branches of the union took part, Mr. Yohannes Woldu, Chargé d’Affaires at the Eritrean Embassy, presented a three-year activity report.

Ms. Negisti Tsegay, chairperson of the union’s Europe branch, conducted a seminar for participants on time management.

At the congress, a three-year road map was adopted and an executive committee was elected.



Likewise, training was provided from 20 to 30 April to heads of the National Union of Eritrean Women and youth organizations in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The training covered basic ideology and politics, psychological warfare and resilience, the history of the Eritrean people, the significance of organization, religion and religious extremism, the National Charter, and other related issues.

Mr. Abdurahman Osman, Eritrea’s Consul General, and Mr. Ahmed Jaefar, head of Public and Community Affairs, noting the importance of strengthening organization, called on the trainees to apply the knowledge they gained from the training in their daily activities.

A conference focusing on strengthening organizations was also conducted in Jeddah from 18 to 25 April.

[Meleket]

Policy Assessment by Zaelnoon Suliman, African Affairs Unit — Progress Center for Policies



Resetting US-Eritrean Relations: An Analysis Of Motivations And Regional Implications
By Capadmin On May 2, 2026

Introduction
On April 23, 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is considering resetting its relations with Eritrea and easing some of the sanctions imposed on it for decades. This move comes amid escalating threats to navigation security in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, transforming Asmara from an isolated state on the margins of American attention into a strategic card at the heart of the geopolitical equation. Yet this path carries profoundly complex regional risks — foremost among them the possibility of igniting an armed confrontation between Eritrea and Ethiopia, and the risk of President Isaias Afwerki exploiting this opening to consolidate his domestic authority without offering any genuine strategic concessions.

I. Context and Background
Eritrea controls more than 1,120 kilometers of Red Sea coastline, directly adjacent to one of the most critical international shipping lanes. Its location has acquired exceptional importance amid escalating Houthi threats at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while Tehran has sought to restrict navigation through the Strait of Hormuz since its confrontation with the United States erupted.

According to reports, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi brokered a secret meeting in Cairo between Trump envoy Massad Boulos and Eritrean President Afwerki, covering sanctions relief and the opening of higher-level diplomatic channels. It bears noting that Eritrea is the only African country to have refused engagement with AFRICOM and the IMF, and has remained among the most heavily sanctioned states by Washington — excluded even from the SWIFT international financial transfer system.

II. American Motivations
Washington seeks to transform Eritrea into a “bulwark against Iranian influence,” drawing on its extended Red Sea coastline — through which approximately 13% of global oil passes — and its position opposite the Houthis’ area of operations. In the latest US National Security Strategy document, Eritrea is not listed under any terrorism classification or human rights priority; rather, it is referenced in the context of conflict prevention rather than intervention — a signal of fundamental reframing in the American stance.

This move fundamentally reflects the Trump administration’s adoption of an approach grounded in pure strategic interest with relative detachment from values — consistent with its behavior in other regional files. Yet there is an internal divide within the administration between a pragmatic current pushing for rapid normalization and another that argues any unconditional opening will weaken American leverage and send the wrong message to authoritarian regimes in the region.

III. Eritrean Calculations
Afwerki has shown openness to engaging with the United States differently under the Trump presidency, sensing a rare opportunity to break out of international isolation. Yet history reveals he has mastered the art of using everyone without aligning with anyone, and he will seek to extract maximum material and diplomatic gains while preserving a wide margin of strategic independence. This move grants him a highly valuable domestic and regional pressure card amid accumulated pressures from prolonged economic isolation — with a strong likelihood he will repeat his historical pattern of taking without giving.

IV. Regional Implications
Ethiopia represents the most sensitive variable in this equation. Worsening tensions over sea access and Asmara’s relations with groups opposed to the Ethiopian government raise the probability of clashes along the border that could rapidly escalate into a broader military confrontation. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has described Ethiopia’s landlocked status as a “prison,” and reclaiming the port of Assab has become a demand with wide popular support cutting across political affiliations. Military movements toward the border have been observed alongside escalating mobilizing rhetoric. Eritrean forces continue to occupy areas inside Ethiopian borders seized during the Tigray war, despite UN demands for withdrawal, while Asmara maintains ties with opposition factions in Tigray.

Sudan adds a dimension that cannot be overlooked: Iran is working to leverage its influence over Sudan’s Red Sea coast to reinforce its presence in the maritime corridor, complicating American calculations and rendering any one-dimensional security equation inadequate. Somalia and Djibouti will also recalibrate their positions, as both maintain complex and contradictory relationships with both Washington and Asmara.

V. Critique of American Strategy
Critics at prominent research institutes argue that the strategic logic is “theoretically comprehensible but catastrophically applicable in practice,” warning that lifting sanctions on Eritrea could produce an American strategic defeat. They invoke Gaddafi’s fate as a historical warning — arguing he fell not because he refused to engage with the West, but because he accepted engagement — and that Washington is repeating a recurring pattern with African states: isolation, then pressure, then re-engagement, then subjugation. Furthermore, marginalizing Ethiopian calculations in this equation may push Addis Ababa toward more hardline options on sea access, turning the Horn of Africa into a new flashpoint.

VI. Likely Scenarios
First — Most probable: Limited Partial Normalization. Selective sanctions relief and the opening of diplomatic channels while preserving pressure tools — granting Asmara limited legitimacy without binding it to substantive concessions.

Second — Negotiation Track Collapse. Should Afwerki push to extract maximum gains without reciprocity, drawing on his history of managing relationships with full autonomy.

Third — Most dangerous: Full-Scale War. A transformation of Ethiopia-Eritrea border tensions into comprehensive war should diplomatic intervention fail — repeating the devastating 1998–2000 conflict in a far more entangled regional context at far higher humanitarian cost.

Conclusion
This move embodies one of the deepest dilemmas of foreign policy: the trade-off between immediate strategic interest and the long-term costs of regional stability. Turning Eritrea into a card in the Red Sea war without managing its regional repercussions resembles extinguishing one fire by igniting another. Any unconditional opening will send a deeply dangerous message — that Washington is prepared to trade away human rights considerations when strategic necessity demands it.

For the sake of regional stability, Washington would be better served by tying any sanctions relief to concrete and measurable benchmarks, engaging Ethiopia and regional mediation bodies in managing this transition, and remembering that Isaias Afwerki, in his dealings with major powers, speaks only one language: taking without giving.

https://www.arabprogress.org/en/resetti ... lications/

ናትና ኣይንህብን ዘይናትና ኣይንደልን፡ ብግብሪ እንኪትርጎም https://mereja.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=308857&.

[Digital Weyane]

ምእራባውያን ጌቶቻችን በኤርትራ ህዝብ ላይ የጣሉትን ማእቀብ ዓላማውን ለማስፈፀምና ማእቀቡ ውጤታማ እንዲሆን ሲሉ አጥንታቸውን የከሰከሱ፣ ደማቸውን ያፈሰሱ እና መተኪያ የሌላት ህይወታቸውን የሰጡ የኢትዮጵያ ጀግኖቻችን የውለታቸው ምላሽ በቃ እንደዚህ በከንቱ ሆኖ ቀረ ማለት ነው? ዋይ ዋይ ዋይ ዋይ ዋይ

ማእቀቡ በኢትዮጵያ ላይ ላደረሰው ጉዳት ኤርትራ ለሀገራችን ኢትዮጵያ ካሳ መክፈል ይገባታል።

[Meleket]

እርግጥ ነው ግለሰቦች ተሰብስበው ህዝብ እንደሚባሉ ያልጠረጠሩት፡ ዲጅታል ብሮስቤሪቲዎች አናሎጎቹም ጭምር ደግሞ እንዲህ ሲሉ አድምጠናል፡ እኛ ኤርትራዉያን የመሃልና የመስመር ዳኞች በተለመደው ኤርትራዊ ጭዋነት ኩራትና ትህትና ጭምር “ዘሊሎም ዘሊሎም” የሚለውን የዝነኛውን ድምጣዊ የታጋይ ወዲ ትዅልን ዜማ እያጣጥምን፡ እግረመንገዳችንንም “ዘይተርፈካ ጋሻ” የሚለውን ምሳሌ ትርጉም እያስተዋልን። https://mereja.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=308857&.

Washington’s Eritrea Reset: From Sanctioned Spoiler to Licensed Spoiler
MAY 10, 2026



Washington’s reported plan to remove sanctions on Eritrea marks a significant moment in the evolving security architecture of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. On the surface, the logic appears pragmatic: Eritrea controls a long Red Sea coastline, sits opposite Saudi Arabia, and occupies a decisive position in the corridor linking the Horn, the Gulf, and the wider maritime-security ecosystem. Yet the strategic paradox is difficult to avoid. A policy designed to stabilize a volatile frontier may end up rewarding a state whose regional posture has repeatedly complicated the very stability Washington seeks to preserve.[1]

According to a Reuters report published in May 2026, the United States is preparing to remove sanctions on Eritrea, with analysts linking the move to Asmara’s strategic location along the Red Sea shipping route and Washington’s interest in easing regional tensions.[1] This is not merely a bilateral diplomatic adjustment. It reflects a broader strategic recalibration in which the Horn is no longer treated as a secondary African theater, but as part of a transregional continuum connecting Red Sea security, Gulf politics, maritime trade, and African institutional order.

That recalibration is understandable. Eritrea’s geography gives Asmara leverage that few regional actors can ignore. Its ports, coastline, and proximity to Yemen and Saudi Arabia make it relevant to shipping security and crisis management. Its relationship with Ethiopia, the Horn’s demographic and diplomatic center of gravity, also gives Eritrea outsized importance in any regional de-escalation framework. For Washington, engaging Asmara may appear to offer a channel through which Red Sea security, Ethiopia-Eritrea confidence-building, and wider geopolitical competition can be managed at once.

Historically, however, Eritrea’s strategic relevance has not translated into constructive regional integration. The United States imposed sanctions in 2021 on Eritrean entities and individuals under Executive Order 14046, citing their contribution to the crisis then affecting Ethiopia and the wider Horn.[2] Those measures were not incidental. They formed part of a pressure architecture aimed at constraining destabilizing behavior, encouraging withdrawal from contested spaces, and protecting the stability and integrity of regional states.

The current concern is therefore not whether Eritrea matters. It clearly does. The concern is whether Washington is converting Eritrea’s strategic geography into diplomatic impunity. Ethiopia has pursued a consistent regional interest in secure, negotiated, and economically viable access to the sea, a question rooted in its landlocked status and long-term development requirements. At the same time, Addis Ababa has formally communicated concerns regarding Eritrean troop presence near contested areas and alleged support for armed groups, while also signaling willingness to engage peacefully on maritime access and related issues.[3] This combination of principled sovereignty and negotiated access should be treated as an opening for regional diplomacy, not as a justification for empowering unilateral disruption.

At the same time, Asmara has weakened the very institutional channels that could help manage these tensions. In December 2025, Eritrea withdrew from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, only two years after rejoining the regional bloc.[4] IGAD noted that Eritrea had not participated in the organization’s meetings, programmes, or activities since June 2023, while expressing continued openness to constructive engagement.[5] IGAD is one of the few African-led arenas through which Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions, Red Sea insecurity, Sudan’s war, and Somalia’s security transition can be discussed within a regional framework. Eritrea’s exit reinforces a familiar pattern: maximum sovereignty claim, minimum institutional constraint.

What we are witnessing is the possible emergence of a “licensed spoiler” model. Under this model, an actor with a record of disruption is not rehabilitated because its conduct has clearly changed, but because external powers decide that its geography has become too valuable to ignore. The spoiler is not transformed. It is repackaged as a necessary partner. Its leverage rises precisely because the surrounding security environment deteriorates.

Seen from that angle, Washington’s calculation is not irrational, but it is incomplete. The United States may believe that engagement can moderate Asmara, create channels for de-escalation, strengthen Red Sea coordination, and limit the space available to rival powers. This is the strongest argument for a reset. Isolation has not liberalized Eritrea, reduced its domestic militarization, or integrated it into regional institutions. A managed opening could, in theory, create incentives that pressure alone has failed to produce.

Yet that argument depends entirely on conditionality. Without clear benchmarks, sanctions relief risks becoming a unilateral concession rather than a calibrated instrument. Eritrea’s operating model links domestic militarization with external maneuvering. Indefinite national service sustains a highly securitized state structure; political closure reduces internal accountability; and regional disruption then becomes a mechanism for projecting strength outward while insulating the regime at home. In this sense, Eritrea’s foreign policy cannot be separated from its domestic architecture. The same state that organizes society around permanent mobilization also benefits from a neighborhood kept under strategic pressure.

In practical terms, Washington’s reset should not be judged by whether it opens a channel to Asmara. It should be judged by what that channel requires. Any serious framework would need to tie sanctions relief and diplomatic upgrading to verifiable security de-escalation, non-interference in neighboring states, renewed cooperation with IGAD and AU mechanisms, humanitarian access where relevant, and measurable reform of Eritrea’s national-service system. These conditions would not resolve the Eritrean question in full. They would, however, prevent engagement from becoming a reward for coercive leverage.

That framework would also serve Ethiopia’s constructive regional agenda. Addis Ababa’s long-term interest lies in negotiated maritime access, corridor diversification, regional economic integration, and predictable security relations with its neighbors. A stable Red Sea order cannot be built by isolating Ethiopia’s legitimate development requirements from the wider architecture of ports, trade corridors, and African-led diplomacy. Nor can it be built by allowing Asmara to convert its coastline into a veto point over regional integration. The sustainable path is one in which Ethiopia’s search for access is addressed through lawful negotiation and mutual economic benefit, while Eritrea is encouraged to re-enter regional mechanisms under clear rules of conduct.

The better approach, therefore, is conditional engagement anchored in regional architecture. Washington can speak to Asmara without laundering its behavior. It can recognize Eritrea’s Red Sea significance without converting geography into exemption. It can support Ethiopia-Eritrea de-escalation while strengthening, rather than bypassing, African institutional channels. The key test is whether the United States uses engagement to pull Eritrea into a rules-based regional framework or simply accepts Asmara’s role as a hard-edged gatekeeper on the Red Sea.

The Horn’s emerging security order is already marked by corridor competition, port politics, external military positioning, and fragile institutions. In such an environment, great powers often privilege access over accountability and short-term deterrence over long-term order. If Washington removes sanctions without enforceable conditions, it may not be stabilizing the Horn’s Red Sea frontier. It may be turning Eritrea from a sanctioned spoiler into a licensed one.

References
[1] Reuters reported in May 2026 that the United States was set to remove sanctions on Eritrea, linking the move to Eritrea’s Red Sea location and shifting regional alignments. (Reuters)
[2] The U.S. Treasury announced November 2021 sanctions on Eritrean entities and individuals under Executive Order 14046. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
[3] Reuters reported in February 2026 that Ethiopia formally communicated concerns regarding Eritrean troop presence and support for armed groups, while noting Ethiopia’s stated openness to peaceful negotiations on maritime access. (Reuters)
[4] AP reported Eritrea’s December 2025 withdrawal from IGAD. (AP News)
[5] IGAD said Eritrea had not participated in IGAD meetings, programmes, or activities since June 2023 and stated that it remained open to constructive engagement. (igad.int)

By Dinaol Ibraahim, IFA

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https://www.ifa.gov.et/2026/05/10/washi ... d-spoiler/

ብሱሩ ብሱሩ “ናይና የንህብይ፡ ለይናይና የንደልይ!” አብ ምባል ለኾነይ እቱይ ቁምነገር ዝህሄ https://mereja.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=308857&.

[Digital Weyane]

አረብ ኤምሬቶቹ ጌቶቻችን በኤርትራ ህዝብ ላይ ተጥሎ የነበረውን ማእቀብ በመነሳቱ ምክንያት የተሰማቸው ጥልቅ ሐዘን የብልፅግናው ወንድማችን Meleket በፅሁፍ መልክ ስላጋራን በጣም እናመሰግናለን። አረብ ኤምሬቶች የሚፈልጉትን ካላገኙ ንዴታቸውና ቁጣቸው አይጣል ነው። ሲቆጡ በጣም ያስፈራሉ። ፅሁፉን የሚያነቡት ኤርትራውያን እንዴት እንደሚርበደበዱ ለማወቅ አያስቸግርም።

አረብ ኤምሬቶች በኤርትራ ህዝብ ላይ አውጀውት የነበረውን የውክልና ጦርነት በሆርሙዝ ሰርጥ መዘጋት ምክንያት ሳይጀመር በመክሸፉ ሞራላቸው እጅግ ስለተጎዳ፣ ሐዘናቸው ሐዘናችን፣ ስቃያቸው ስቃያችን፣ ህመማቸው ህመማችን፣ ስለሆነ ድምፅ ማሰማታችንን እንቀጥላለን። የብልፅግናው ወንድማችን Meleket የጀመረውን ለአረብ ኤምሬቶች ድምጽ የመሆን ዘመቻን ለማስቀጠል ከጎኑ ተሰልፈን በፅናት ለመታገል ቃል እንገባለን። አይዞህ ወንድሜ ፤ ፈፅሞ ብቻህ አትሆንም።

[Meleket]

“ድሮ፡ አረብ ኤምሬት የሆርሙዝ ወሽመጥ ፈርጥ ትባል ነበር፡ አሁን ግን የታለች? አረብ ኤምሬትስ አለች? የለችም!” ታዲያ ዲጅታል ብሮስፔሪቲዎች አናሎጎቹም ጭምር፡ “ኤምሬትስ” የሚል እንጉርጉሮ የሚያንጎራጉሩት ለምንድን ነው? ብለን አንሳለቅም እኛ ኤርትራዉያን የመሃልና የመስመር ዳኞች፡ በተለመደው ኤርትራዊ ጭዋነት ኩራትና ትህትና ጭምር።

አረብ ኤምሬቶቹ ጌቶቻችን በኤርትራ ህዝብ ላይ ተጥሎ የነበረውን ማእቀብ በመነሳቱ ምክንያት የተሰማቸው ጥልቅ ሐዘን የብልፅግናው ወንድማችን Meleket በፅሁፍ መልክ ስላጋራን በጣም እናመሰግናለን። አረብ ኤምሬቶች የሚፈልጉትን ካላገኙ ንዴታቸውና ቁጣቸው አይጣል ነው። ሲቆጡ በጣም ያስፈራሉ። ፅሁፉን የሚያነቡት ኤርትራውያን እንዴት እንደሚርበደበዱ ለማወቅ አያስቸግርም።

አረብ ኤምሬቶች በኤርትራ ህዝብ ላይ አውጀውት የነበረውን የውክልና ጦርነት በሆርሙዝ ሰርጥ መዘጋት ምክንያት ሳይጀመር በመክሸፉ ሞራላቸው እጅግ ስለተጎዳ፣ ሐዘናቸው ሐዘናችን፣ ስቃያቸው ስቃያችን፣ ህመማቸው ህመማችን፣ ስለሆነ ድምፅ ማሰማታችንን እንቀጥላለን። የብልፅግናው ወንድማችን Meleket የጀመረውን ለአረብ ኤምሬቶች ድምጽ የመሆን ዘመቻን ለማስቀጠል ከጎኑ ተሰልፈን በፅናት ለመታገል ቃል እንገባለን። አይዞህ ወንድሜ ፤ ፈፅሞ ብቻህ አትሆንም።