Mereja.Forum

[Zmeselo]

Zero Hour in the Horn of Africa: Are We at 11:59?

(By Makkawi Elmalik*) ― Over the past 48 hours, something unusual has been unfolding across the Horn of Africa. Not routine diplomacy. Not symbolic visits. Not defensive repositioning. What we are seeing looks more like the quiet alignment of major regional powers around a decisive moment.

In just 24 hours, aircraft movements and high level meetings connected Addis Ababa, Asmara, Cairo, Port Sudan, Ankara, and Tel Aviv. Seven significant moves. Five capitals. Multiple actors. One emerging pattern.

A Region Shifting from Diplomacy to Decision

The Saudi Foreign Minister appeared in Addis Ababa for talks with PM Abiy Ahmed. Publicly, the message was stability. Privately, the implications seemed heavier: certain armed structures in the region may no longer be tolerated.



At the same time, a Saudi private jet landed in Asmara. The timing matters. The signal was clear, Eritrea is not alone, and Riyadh is positioning itself as both mediator and power broker.

This is not passive diplomacy. It looks more like strategic positioning with parallel tracks:

• A negotiated recalibration, if Ethiopia adjusts course
• A pressure scenario, if it does not

Saudi Arabia appears to be preparing for both.

Turkey Moves from Mediator to Operator



Ankara’s posture also seems to be evolving. A Turkish intelligence aircraft reportedly landed at a sensitive Egyptian location, not for ceremony but for coordination. Two Turkish cargo planes moved toward Port Sudan through military channels. The message is difficult to ignore: operational cooperation between Turkey and Egypt appears deeper than before.



Add to that a Russian cargo aircraft arriving in Port Sudan from a sanctioned fleet, and the picture widens. Moscow’s footprint may be growing quietly, aligning with a Cairo, Ankara axis that seems increasingly synchronized.

Meanwhile, Port Sudan itself is transforming. No longer just an administrative fallback, it is taking shape as a strategic hub. Supply lines appear active. Military coordination appears structured. The Sudanese army is clearly preparing for a larger phase.

Ethiopia Under the Spotlight



At the same time, a Mossad-linked aircraft reportedly touched down in Addis Ababa for a brief 30 minute stop before departing. Short visits can carry heavy messages. Whether it involved intelligence sharing, reassurances, or positioning, it underscores one fact: Ethiopia is at the center of intense geopolitical attention.

But the larger question remains: can any single external partner shield Addis Ababa from mounting pressure if multiple regional powers align in the opposite direction?

The balance of weight suggests that maneuvering space is narrowing.

Strategic Zero Hour vs Military Zero Hour

There is a difference between the start of gunfire and the end of options.

Military zero hour is the moment the first shots are fired. That has not happened.

Strategic zero hour is the moment when every alternative path quietly closes. That may already be here.

If this interpretation is correct, then:

• Ethiopia’s room to maneuver is shrinking
• The UAE’s ability to deny involvement is being tested
• Armed groups dependent on cross border supply lines face increasing constraints

The question is no longer whether change is coming. The question is what form it will take: an organized withdrawal or a sudden collapse.

A Broader Realignment

The emerging alignment suggests:

• Saudi Arabia applying political leverage across multiple capitals
• Turkey and Egypt coordinating militarily and through intelligence channels
• Russia entering through Port Sudan
• Eritrea holding a pressure card against Ethiopia
• Qatar, Algeria, and possibly Iran positioned on the margins
• China observing carefully
• Israel attempting to preserve influence in Addis Ababa

If this framework holds, what we are witnessing is not a simple proxy conflict. It is a regional power recalibration around Sudan and the Horn of Africa.

The Clock at 11:59

Zero hour has not struck.

But the clock may be sitting at 11:59.

The final minute depends on decisions yet to be made in Addis Ababa, Abu Dhabi, and Washington. Whether escalation is avoided or triggered will hinge on whether key actors choose de-escalation, restructuring, or confrontation.

For now, the skies are tense, alliances are hardening, and the region stands at the edge of a decisive turn.

History often moves quietly before it moves loudly. The Horn of Africa may be in that quiet moment right now.

(*This is a software generated English translation from Arabic. The original Arabic post )


عاجل | الانفجار
ساعة الصفر في القرن الإفريقي: هل دقت؟
من أديس أبابا إلى أسمرا.. ومن القاهرة إلى بورتسودان.. ومن أنقرة إلى تل أبيب.. ٢٤ ساعة ترسم خريطة النهاية
🟥 المقدمة: ليس تحشيداً.. بل إعلان حرب باردة مكتملة الأركان
ما نشهده منذ ٤٨ ساعة لا يشبه أي تحرك سابق في القرن الإفريقي
هذه ليست جولة دبلوماسية عادية..هذه ليست وساطة تقليدية..هذا ليس حشداً عسكرياً دفاعياً
هذا إعلان غير معلن عن بدء مرحلة الحسم
المعطيات لا تحتمل التأويل:
· وزير الخارجية السعودي في أديس أبابا
· طائرة سعودية خاصة في أسمرا في نفس التوقيت
· طائرة استخبارات تركية تهبط في قاعدة مصرية سرية
· طائرتا شحن تركيتان إلى بورتسودان خلال ساعات
· طائرة شحن روسية من إسطول العقوبات تهبط في بورتسودان
· طائرة الموساد تهبط في أديس أبابا ٣٠ دقيقة ثم تغادر
٢٤ ساعة. ٧ حركات. ٥ عواصم. جهة فاعلة واحدة؟
لا…جهات فاعلة متعددة.. لكنها تكتب السيناريو نفسه
المشهد الأول: السعودية تلعب على الحبلين.. بذكاء
في أديس أبابا:
فيصل بن فرحان يجتمع بأبي أحمد
الرسالة العلنية: "نريد استقرار الإقليم"
الرسالة المبطنة: "معسكر منجي يجب أن يختفي"
في أسمرا:
طائرة سعودية خاصة تهبط في نفس التوقيت
الرسالة: "إريتريا ليست وحدها..الرياض معكم..تحرككم له غطاء"
القراءة العبقرية:
السعودية لا تنتظر انسحاب إثيوبيا من دعم المليشيا..السعودية تعدّ البديل:
· خطة أ: انسحاب إثيوبي تفاوضي
· خطة ب: تحرك إريتري مدعوم لمعاقبة أديس أبابا
هذه ليست وساطة. هذه إدارة معركة
🟢 المشهد الثاني: تركيا تخرج من الستار
طائرة الاستخبارات التركية (TC-IHA) لم تذهب إلى القاهرة للتشاور..ذهبت إلى قاعدة سرية في جنوب شرق مصر…قاعدة تدار منها عمليات مسيّرات ضد إمدادات المليشيا
الرسالة:
أنقرة لم تعد وسيطاً..أنقرة أصبحت غرفة عمليات
طائرتا الشحن (SU-SAW) بين إسطنبول والقاهرة:
· تهبطان في المدرج العسكري..لا المدني
· تحملان ما لا يمكن إعلانه
· تنسيق استخباراتي كامل بين مصر وتركيا
طائرة الشحن الروسية (RA-78765) إلى بورتسودان:
روسيا من إسطول العقوبات تصل إلى السودان
ماذا تحمل؟ لا أحد يقول..
لكن التوقيت يقول كل شيء..
الخلاصة:
محور القاهرة–أنقرة–موسكو يتشكل بصمت لدعم الجيش السوداني..بينما السعودية تضغط سياسياً وإريتريا تستعد عسكرياً
🟡 المشهد الثالث: الموساد في أديس.. زيارة ٣٠ دقيقة
طائرة الموساد (4X-CNZ) تهبط في أديس أبابا..تبقى ٣٠ دقيقة..!
تغادر..!
ماذا يحدث في ٣٠ دقيقة؟
· تسليم معلومات استخباراتية عن تحركات الجيش السوداني..!
· تنسيق مواقف قبل زيارة فيصل بن فرحان..!
· رسالة طمأنة لأبي أحمد: "إسرائيل معك..لا تخضع للضغط"
لكن السؤال:
هل تستطيع إسرائيل حماية إثيوبيا من غضب السعودية ومصر وتركيا معاً؟؟
الجواب واضح: لا
🟣 المشهد الرابع: بورتسودان تتحول إلى مركز قيادة كثفت الشحنات الجوية
طائرة شحن تركية ثانية (SU-SKF) إلى بورتسودان
طائرة شحن روسية إلى بورتسودان
شحنات مصرية متواصلة منذ أسابيع
الترجمة الميدانية:
· الجيش السوداني يتسلم أسلحة نوعية ويستعد لمرحلة اكبر
· خطوط الإمداد التركية والمصرية والروسية مفتوحة
· بورتسودان لم تعد العاصمة ادارية السابقة .. بل مركز قيادة حرب استعادة الدولة
في المقابل:
· إثيوبيا تحاصر
· تشاد محايدة
· ليبيا مغلقة حتى الان
· أرض الصومال تحت الحصار
المليشيا بينها وبين الإمداد: إثيوبيا فقط..وإثيوبيا الآن تحت المجهر
🟤 السؤال المركزي: هل دقت ساعة الصفر؟
للإجابة..يجب تفكيك كلمة (ساعة الصفر):
ساعة الصفر العسكرية:
هي لحظة إطلاق النار..
لم تصل بعد..
ساعة الصفر الاستراتيجية:
هي لحظة إغلاق كل الخيارات…
وصلناها منذ ٤٨ ساعة…
الفرق جوهري:
· ساعة الصفر العسكرية تعني بداية المعركة
· ساعة الصفر الاستراتيجية تعني نهاية المناورة
إثيوبيا لم تعد قادرة على المناورة..
الإمارات لم تعد قادرة على الإنكار..
المليشيا لم تعد قادرة على التمدد..
الجميع يعلم أن النهاية قريبة..
الاختلاف فقط على الشكل: انسحاب منظم أم انهيار مفاجئ؟
🟥 الخلاصة الثقيلة: المشهد كما لم يروه لك
ما يحدث في القرن الإفريقي ليس حرباً بالوكالة..ما يحدث هو تفكيك منظم لآخر مشاريع الفوضى الإماراتية
المعطيات تتحدث:
1. السعودية تمسك بالملف من رأسه (أبوظبي) وقدميه (أديس أبابا وأسمرا ومقديشو وجوبا )
2. تركيا تمسك بالملف العسكري والاستخباراتي بكامل الجاهزية
3. مصر تمسك بالأرض: قاعدة عوينات..أسطول عصب وتوقع صفقات غواصات واقمار صناعية..١٠ آلاف جندي في الصومال
4. إريتريا تمسك بورقة الضغط الأخيرة على إثيوبيا
5. قطر تدعم دفاعياً..والجزائر تغلق الأجواء..وإيران قد تكون ورقة بديلة
6. روسيا تدخل عبر بورتسودان..والصين تراقب بصمت
7. إسرائيل وحدها تركض خلف قطار فات
الجملة الأخيرة:
(ساعة الصفر في القرن الإفريقي لم تدق بعد…!
لكن عقاربها توقفت عند الدقيقة ١١:٥٩
والفرق بين الدقيقة الأخيرة والصفر الحقيقي.. هو قرار أبي أحمد بتفكيك معسكر منجي..!
هو قرار بن زايد بوقف تمويل الموت..!
هو قرار واشنطن بأن الفوضى لم تعد صفقة رابحة..!
حتى ذلك الحين..
السماء مغلقة..
الطريق مسدود..
والموت ينتظر في المحطة الأخيرة..!
نصر من الله وفتح قريب
مكاوي الملك | Makkawi Elmalik

[Zmeselo]

President Isaias Afwerki met, at the Denden Guest House in the late afternoon hours today, Saudi delegation led by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Engineer Waleed Bin Abdulkarim al-Khereiji.



President Isaias underlined the importance of further consolidating the historical bilateral ties of friendship and cooperation between Eritrea and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, through the cultivation of shared and aligned views and positions on vital regional and international issues.



The two sides discussed, in greater depth, the role of the littoral States of the Red Sea in guaranteeing the peace and security of the region against the backdrop of fluid regional and international developments and trends.

In this context, the two sides decided to expedite the concrete implementation of cooperation agreements in the political, economic, security, cultural and social sectors previously reached between Eritrea and Saudi Arabia. @hawelti

[Zmeselo]

THE 2026 U.S. STRATEGIC PIVOT AND ERITREA’S NATIONAL INTERESTS

Written by Eritrean Views on FB

The global order has reached a critical inflection point. As explained by President Isaias Afwerki in January 2026, the

ambition to create a unipolar world order... has run its course,

leaving a vacuum currently filled by

disorder and uncertainty.

Within this transition, the United States has undergone a fundamental restructuring of its foreign policy. The 2026 National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Defense Strategy (NDS) officially terminate the era of “liberal interventionism” and “nation-building.” For Eritrea, this shift is not merely a change in administration but a structural realignment of American power. The U.S. has moved from a “Global Policeman” to a “Transactional Realist,” prioritizing internal security, resource independence, and maritime choke-point denial.

The 2026 NSS marks a definitive retreat from the “values-based” interference that historically characterized U.S. policy toward Eritrea. Washington has officially adopted a posture that respects the

right of sovereign countries to determine their own internal systems.

The NSS also marks the neutralization of ideological interreference that characterized Washington’s foreign policy, for decades. The 2026 NSS explicitly states

…we will be unapologetic about our country’s past and present while respectful of other countries’ differing religions, cultures, and governing systems.

This text represents a total collapse of the “human rights” pretexts used to justify sanctions against Eritrea. In his July 2025 interview, President Isaias noted that Eritrea has been the target of “orchestrated sabotage” by a U.S. establishment that used NGOs and “democracy promotion” as weapons. The 2026 NSS effectively disarms these weapons. By prioritizing “Realism” over “Democratization,” Washington seems now open to partnerships that prioritize stability and order, regardless of their internal political structure.

The NSS 2026 also introduces a radical shift in migration policy. the NSS states

We want a world in which migration is not merely ‘orderly’ but one in which sovereign countries work together to stop rather than facilitate destabilizing population flows.

For decades, Eritrea has maintained that the flight of Eritrean youth was an

organized operation orchestrated by external actors

to drain the nation’s human capital.

The new U.S. strategy views migration (it labels it as a “destabilizing population flows”) as a threat to both the U.S. homeland and regional partners. This can be an area of common interest with the current US administration; and both countries can transform a formerly point of contention into a pillar of strategic cooperation.

The NSS’s emphasis on “Resource Sovereignty” is another area where both Eritrea and the US find an asymmetry of views on investment and self-reliance. The 2026 NSS mandates a transition from “Foreign Aid” to “Strategic Investment,” focusing on securing critical minerals to reduce dependency on peer-competitors. Eritrea’s persistent call for Africa to

extricate itself from debilitating dependency

regardless of the natural endowments of countries seems to have finally resonated with Washington’s policy makers.

In this regard Eritrea has much to offer the US in the form of ‘strategic denial assets’ if Washinton is truly interested into forging a partnership based on mutual interest. For instance, US companies can benefit from Eritrea’s mining potentials (especially its Potash endowments) while at the same time preventing monopoly on fertilizer and industrial inputs by its competitors.

Following the release of the 2026 NSS, the US’s Department of War has also released a National Defense Strategy, which pivots the U.S. military to be

laser-focused on restoring peace through strength

and protecting

access to key terrain... and maritime approaches.

A central pillar of the 2026 NDS is the

Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.

The Monroe Doctrine (named after the fifth President of the US James Monroe) was a US policy that opposed European colonialism in the Americas. It argued that any intervention in the politics of the Americas by foreign powers was a potentially hostile act against the US. It began in 1823; but the term ‘Monroe doctrine’ itself was not coined until 1850. Originally intended for the Western Hemisphere, it has been expanded to cover all “strategically vital assets” that impact U.S. economic security under the Trump Administration. The NDS states

We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to... own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere [and key geographies].

This corollary although criticized as a declaration of US hegemony and a right of unilateral intervention, actually counters ‘expansionist adventurism’ and ‘nationalistic nostalgia’ that continue to pose threats to regional stability in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.

Under the 2026 NDS, the U.S. views any attempt to redraw colonial-era borders as a

trigger for regional contagion.

The implication is that Washington might no longer view Ethiopia’s “landlocked” status as a reason to support its claims. Instead, according to the new U.S. Strategy Eritrea’s long coastline might be viewed as a vital barrier against hostile foreign incursion that might disrupt the $1 trillion in trade flowing through the Bab-el-Mandeb a red line for the Trump Administration.

The NDS 2026 states that the US will encourage its allies

to behave as partners rather than dependents.

This aligns perfectly with Eritrea’s principle of Subsidiarity regarding the Red Sea security, where, as highlighted in President Isaias’s interview last July

the security of the Red Sea basin should first and foremost rest with the littoral States.

Eritrea’s long-standing rejection of foreign bases within its territory is no longer a viewed as problematic; but a strategic asset. By securing its own waters independently, Eritrea complements the U.S’s call for “denial-based deterrence” without requiring foreign troop presence.

The next step to bolster US-Eritrea relations should therefore be to host a high-level dialogue between the U.S. and the State of Eritrea focused on mending past US’s hostilities on the basis of ‘forgiveness’ that president has emphasized. Based on the US’s new security strategy (2026), three pillars of potential cooperation niches can be identified as entry points, which bear shared interest between the US and Eritrea:

Pillar A: End to US Hostility: Eritrea has consistently demonstrated that it doesn’t harbor any hostile position against the US despite the latter’s unprovoked hostilities over the years. For instance, it is in Eritrea’s stated policy documents that it doesn’t allow for the establishment of a foreign bases on its coast that threatens the security of other states (including the US). This aligns well with the US’s emphasis on

Maritime Integrity and Infrastructure Neutrality

as stated in both its 2026 NSS and NDS.

It is therefore incumbent upon the US to stop its hostile stance against Eritrea and respect Eritrea’s sovereign choice on how it governs itself.

Pillar B: Technical Security Cooperation: In place of aid, both countries can enter into “technical-level” cooperation in maritime radar and counter-drone technologies (a 2026 NDS priority) to protect the Bab-el-Mandeb.

Pillar C: Investment: Eritrea offers several investment niches that US companies can benefit from. This include a “Critical Mineral Offtake” framework where Eritrean resources are prioritized for the U.S. Defense Industrial Base (DIB), effectively creating a “Security-for-Trade” bypass of previous sanctions.

Finally, make no mistake that the 2026 U.S. posture is still one of “Selective Realism.” It is a world where “the strong set the rules” (as noted by President Isaias in Jan 2026) and where Eritrea’s strength lies in its consistency, geography, and self-reliance. However, as stated by President Isaias the two countries can still opt for

engagement on an equal footing,

based on the 2026 U.S. NSS/NDS.

The primary step should be to permanently end the “Ethiopia-first” foreign policy bias, that has blinded successive US government administrations to use Eritrea as a pawn in the geopolitical power struggles of the HoA and the Red Sea. This must end! Today, Under President Isaias’s able leadership, Eritrea offers a more stable and sovereign partner that no other country in the HoA can provide.

Absent the individuals, advisors and lobby groups that continue to jeopardize the restoration of US-Eritrea relations; a renewed engagement between the US-Eritrea should no longer be a distant hope; it is a strategic necessity forced by the new reality that is galvanizing world order. The era of “sabotage” must be over; the era of “the deal” should begin.

[Horus]

ስልብ ባሪያ በጌታው ቁላ ይኮራል !!! ባባባባባባ ዉውዉውዉዉው አረብ ፈጥሮሻል አረብ ያዝሻል!!!!

[Zmeselo]

The UAE lapdog Abiy telling his clowns:

We begged and tried to assist by sending cranes and generators from a friendly third country, but Eritrea rejected the equipment.

Well, it was from this pedo and his country.

Eritrea rightfully rejected it and said -

we're not beggars and we don't do beggars of beggars.

Stick it where the sun doesn’t shine, የኣረብ እግር ኣጣቢት።

ስልብ ባሪያ በጌታው ቁላ ይኮራል !!! ባባባባባባ ዉውዉውዉዉው አረብ ፈጥሮሻል አረብ ያዝሻል!!!!

[Zmeselo]

General
The Sudanese Eritrean Relations: A Firm Partnership Beyond Geography, Rooted in a Shared Destiny

By: Ambassador Osman Ahmed Abdul Bari, Ambassador of the Republic of the Sudan to Eritrea

https://shabait.com/2026/02/12/the-suda ... d-destiny/

Feb 12, 2026



The Relations between the Republic of the Sudan and the State of Eritrea represent an advanced model of bilateral relations in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea regions. Their roots run deep in history, and their dimensions intersect politically, securely, economically, and socially, making them strategic relations based on mutual trust, good neighborliness, and a set of intertwined interests and a shared destiny.

The geographical borders between Sudan and Eritrea have never constituted a real barrier between the two peoples; rather, they have served as a bridge for human connection and cultural and social interaction. The Sudan played an important historical role in supporting the struggle of the Eritrean people for independence, leaving a profound and lasting impact on the Eritrean national consciousness—an impact that continues to be reflected in the positions of the Eritrean leadership and popular sentiment toward Sudan to this day. Moreover, the extended social and tribal ties across both sides of the border have further deepened this relationship, making it a bond between two peoples before it is a relationship between two states.

Political coordination based on mutual respect

Politically, the relations between Khartoum and Asmara are characterized by a high level of understanding and coordination, particularly on regional issues of shared interest. Eritrea has consistently maintained a firm position rooted in respect for Sudan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and in rejecting any external interference in its internal affairs. In return, the Sudan views Eritrea as a reliable partner in promoting regional stability, especially amid the complex security and political challenges facing the Horn of Africa.



Eritrea—both its leadership and its people—has taken a historic and steadfast stance in support of Sudan during its current war, the War of Dignity. This position represents an advanced and distinctive model of solidarity, embodied in the direct leadership of His Excellency President Isaias Afwerki and his clear support for Sudan’s unity, stability, territorial integrity, and the preservation of its sovereign gains.

A security partnership in a turbulent regional environment

On the security front, Sudanese– Eritrean cooperation constitutes a key pillar of stability along their shared border, which extends for hundreds of kilometers. Security coordination and information exchange have contributed to curbing illicit activities, combating smuggling and illegal migration, and preventing armed groups and militias operating outside the law from exploiting the border areas. The importance of this cooperation is magnified amid ongoing regional instability, as both countries recognize that the security of one is inseparable from the security of the other.

Promising economic horizon

Economically, the relations between the Sudan and Eritrea hold significant opportunities that have yet to be fully utilized. Sudan’s vast agricultural and livestock and minerals potential, combined with Eritrea’s strategic location on the Red Sea, its vital ports, and its economic resources, together form a solid foundation for genuine economic integration. Intra-trade, transport, and joint investment open wide horizons for enhancing developments in ways that serve the interests of both peoples and support economic stability in the region.

The humanitarian dimension of Sudanese –Eritrean relations has been clearly evident during times of crisis faced by both countries. Over decades, the Sudan hosted large numbers of Eritreans during the struggle for independence, while Eritrea, in turn, demonstrated supportive and compassionate positions toward the Sudanese people in their various hardships, driven by a firm belief in a shared destiny.



Following the war imposed on the Sudan, Eritrea opened its doors to Sudanese citizens. President Isaias Afwerki directed that their entry and residence in Eritrea be facilitated using whatever identification documents were available, without any complications. This noble humanitarian stance reflects the depth of fraternal ties between the two brotherly and friendly peoples.

Toward a sustainable strategic partnership

With its historical legacy, political trust, and security and economic complementarity, Sudanese– Eritrean relations are well-positioned to move from traditional cooperation to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Achieving this requires strengthening institutional dialogue, expanding areas of cooperation, and building on the strong political will demonstrated by the leadership of both countries. In light of current regional and international challenges, the relationship between the Sudan and Eritrea remains a living example of how excellent neighborliness and mutual respect can create genuine stability—one that extends beyond the two countries to encompass the entire Horn of Africa.



The Sudanese – Eritrean relations, in their historical context and contemporary dynamics, have transcended the framework of conventional bilateral ties to become a geopolitical partnership with structural dimensions. This partnership has been shaped by geopolitical considerations and transformations in regional security in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.

The convergence of visions regarding national sovereignty, rejection of external tutelage, and confronting indirect forms of interference has contributed to consolidating this relationship as one of the pillars of regional balance. This partnership also extends to a comprehensive approach to economic development through the integrated utilization of Sudan’s resources and Eritrea’s maritime position, thereby strengthening economic independence.

The Sudanese –Eritrean partnership represents a strategic cornerstone for reshaping the equations of stability in the region and a model of cooperation that seeks to manage crisis from within the region itself, transforming them into a strategic asset that serves regional stability and the interests of its peoples.


_______________



ዝምድና ሱዳንን ኤርትራን
ክንዮ ጂኦግራፍ፡ ኣብ ሓባራዊ ዕድል ዝሰረተ ጽኑዕ ሽርክነት

ኦሳም ኣሕመድ ዓብደልባሪ
ኣምባሳደር ሪፓብሊክ ሱዳን ኣብ ኤርትራ

@shabait

12 Feb 2026



ኣብ መንጎ ሪፓብሊክ ሱዳንን ኤርትራን ዘሎ ክልተኣዊ ዝምድና፡ ኣብ ቀርኒ ኣፍሪቃን ዞባ ቀይሕ ባሕሪን ኣብነት ናይ ምዕቡል ቅዲ ክልተኣዊ ዝምድና እዩ። ዝምድና ክልተአን ሃገራት ኣብ ታሪኽ ዓሚቚ መሰረት ዘለዎ ኮይኑ፡ ኣብ ኩሉ ማለት ኣብ ፖለቲካዊ፡ ጸጥታዊ፡ ቁጠባዊ፡ ማሕበራዊ መዳያት ሰፊሕ ምትእስሳር ዘለዎ እዩ። እዚ ድማ፡ ክልተአን ሃገራት ኣብ ሓባራዊ ምትእምማንን ሰናይ ጉርብትናን ንሓድሕዱ ዝተዋሰበ ረብሓታትን ሓበራዊ መጻኢ ዕድልን መሰረት ዝገበረ ስትራተጂያዊ ዝምድና ከም ዝህልወን ገይሩ ይርከብ።

ታሪኻዊ ጥምረት፡ ዝተኣሳሰረ መንነት

ኣብ መንጎ ሱዳንን ኤርትራን ዘሎ ጂኦግራፊያዊ ዶብ፡ ንክልቲኦም ህዝብታት ፍጹም ዕንቅፋት ኮይኑ ኣይፈልጥን። ብኣንጻሩ እኳ ድኣ፡ ንሰብኣዊ ርክባት፡ ባህላውን ማሕበራውን ምትእስሳር ከም ድልድል ኮይኑ ኣገልጊሉ እዩ። ሱዳን ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ንናጽነቱ ዘካይዶ ዝነበረ ሓርነታዊ ቃልሲ ብምድጋፍ፡ ኣገዳሲ ታሪኻዊ ተራኣ ተጻዊታ እያ። እዚ ግደ’ዚ፡ ኣብ ሃገራዊ ንቕሓት ኤርትራውያን ዓሚቚን ነባሪን ጽልዋ ዝገደፈ ኮይኑ፡ ክሳብ ሎሚ ኣብ መርገጺታት መሪሕነት ኤርትራ ኮነ ኣብ ህዝባዊ ስምዒት ኤርትራውያን ኣብ ልዕሊ ሱዳን ጎሊሑ ዝንጸባረቕ እዩ። ብዘይካ’ዚ እቲ ኣብ ክልቲአን ሃገራት ዘሎ ሰፊሕ ማሕበራውን ቀቢላውን ምትእስሳር፡ ነዚ ተሪር መሰረት ዘለዎ ዝምድና’ዚ ዝያዳ ብምዕማቚ፡ ክንዮ ዝምድና መንግስታት ናይ ህዝብታት ጥምረት ከም ዝኸውን ገይሩዎ እዩ።

ሓባራዊ ምክብባር ዝሰረቱ ፖለቲካዊ ውህደት

ብፖለቲካዊ መዳይ፡ ኣብ መንጎ ካርቱምን ኣስመራን ዘሎ ዝምድና፡ ብፍላይ ንሓባራዊ ረብሓ ኣብ ዘገድሱ ዞባዊ ጉዳያት፡ ብልዑል ደረጃ ምርድዳእን ምውህሃድን ዝልለ እዩ። ኤርትራ ኣብ ምኽባር ልኡላውነትን ግዝኣታዊ ሓድነትን ሱዳን መሰረት ዝገበረ፡ ንምትእትታው ግዳማዊ ሓይልታት ኣብ ውሽጣዊ ጉዳያት ሱዳን ዝነጽግ፡ ነቕ ዘይብል መርገጺ ዘለዋ ሃገር እያ። ከም ውጽኢቱ፡ ዝተሓላለኸ ጸጥታውን ፖለቲካውን ብድሆታት ቀርኒ ኣፍሪቃ ንምፍታሕን ዞባዊ ርግኣት ንምምጻእን ኣብ ዝካየድ ጻዕሪ ሱዳን ንኤርትራ ከም እምንቲ መሻርኽቲ እያ ትርእያ።

ኤርትራ - መሪሕነታን ህዝባን - ኣብዚ ሕጂ ኣብ ሱዳን ንሃገራዊ ክብረት ዝካየድ ዘሎ ኲናት፡ ንህዝቢ ሱዳን ዝድግፍ ታሪኻውን ቅኑዕን መርገጺ እዮም ወሲዶም። እዚ ብቀጥታዊ መሪሕነት ክቡር ፕረዚደንት ኢሳይያስ ኣፈወርቂ ኣቢሉ ክግለጽ ዝጸንሐ፡ ግዝኣታዊ ሓድነትን ልኡላዊ ረብሓታትን ሱዳን ንክዕቀብ ዝጽውዕ ቅኑዕ መርገጺ ህዝብን መንግስትን ኤርትራ፡ ምዕቡልን ፍሉይን ኮይኑ፡ ሕውነትን ልዑል ናይ ምትሕግጋዝ መንፈስን ናይ ክልቲኡ ህዝብታት ዘንጸባርቕ እዩ።

ጸጥታዊ ሽክርነት ኣብ ህዉጽ ዞባ

ኣብ ግንባር ጸጥታ፡ ኣብ መንጎ ሱዳንን ኤርትራን ዘሎ ምትሕግጋዝ፡ ኣብቲ ንኣማኢት ኪሎ ሜተራት ዝዝርጋሕ ሓበራዊ ዶብ ሓደ ካብ ቀንዲ ኣዕኑድ ምርግጋእ ኮይኑ ይርከብ። ኣብ ጸጥታዊ ጉዳያት ዘሎ ምውህሃድን ምልውዋጥ ሓበሬታን፡ ስግረ ዶባዊ ውጉዝ ንጥፈታት ንምቁጽጻር፡ ዘይሕጋዊ ስደት ንምቅላስ፡ ካብ ሕጊ ወጻኢ ኣብ ከባቢ ዶባት ንዝንቀሳቐሱ ዕጡቓት ጉጅለታትን ሚሊሻታትን ኣብ ምቁጽጻርን ምግታእን ልዑል ግደ ይጻወት ኣሎ። ኣገዳስነት ናይዚ ምትሕግጋዝ’ዚ፡ ኣብቲ ‘ጸጥታ ናይ ሓደ ወገን ካብቲ ናይ ካልእ ወገን ተፈልዩ ዝርአ ኣይኮነን’ ዝብል ኣብ ክልቲአን ሃገራት ዘሎ ሓበራዊ መረዳእታ ዝያዳ ጎሊሑ ዝርአ እዩ።

ትስፉው ቁጠባዊ ደረተ- ትርኢት

ኣብ ቁጠባዊ መዳይ፡ ኣብ መንጎ ሱዳንን ኤርትራን ዘሎ ዝምድና ገና ብምልኣት ክንጥቀመሉ ዘለና ዓበይቲ ዕድላት ዝሓቘፈ እዩ። ሱዳን ሰፊሕ ናይ ሕርሻ፡ መፍረ እንስሳን ማዕድናትን ሃብቲ ዘለዋ ሃገር እያ። እዚ ምስቲ ኤርትራ ኣብ ቀይሕ ባሕሪ ዘለዋ ስትራተጂያዊ ኣቀማምጣን ኣገደስቲ ወደባታን ካልእ ብዙሕ ጸጋታታን ተደሚሩ፡ ንሓቀኛ ቁጠባዊ ውህደት ጽኑዕ መሰረት ዝፈጥር እዩ። ካብን ናብን ንግዳዊ ንጥፈታት ምክያድ፡ ምትእስሳር ኣገልግሎት መጐዓዝያ፡ ትግባረ ሓበራዊ ወፍሪ፡ ንረብሓ ክልቲኦም ህዝብታት ዘገልግል ሰፊሕ ናይ ልምዓት ኣድማስ ዝኸፍት እዩ።

ኣገዳስነት ዝምድና ሱዳንን ኤርትራን ኣብ ሰብኣዊ መዳይ፡ ንክልቲአን ሃገራት ኣብ ዘጋጠመን ብድሆታት ብንጹር ተራእዩ እዩ። ኣብ እዋን ቃልሲ ንናጽነት ኤርትራ፡ ሱዳን ንዓሰርተታት ዓመታት ብዝሒ ዘለዎም ኤርትራውያን ኣዕቊባ እያ። ኤርትራ ብግደኣ፡ ኣብ ዝተፈላለየ ናይ ጸገም እዋናት፡ ደገፋን ምድንጋጻን ምስ ህዝቢ ሱዳን ኣርእያ እያ። እዚ፡ ካብ ጽኑዕ እምነት ኣብ ሓባራዊ መ ጻኢ ዝብገስ እዩ።

ኣብ ልዕሊ ሱዳን ዝተስገደደ ኲናት ስዒቡ፡ ኤርትራ ማዕጾኣ ንዜጋታት ሱዳን ክፉት ገይራቶ እያ። ፕረዚደንት ኢሳይያስ ኣፈወርቂ፡ ሱዳናውያን ዝኾነ ይኹን ዘለዎም መለለዪ ሰነዳት ተጠቒሞም፡ ብዘይ ዕንቅፋትን ምትሕልላኽን ናብ ኤርትራ ክኣትዉን ክቕመጡን መምርሒ ምሃቡ ይፍለጥ። እዚ ክቡር ሰብኣዊ መርገጺ’ዚ፡ ዕምቈት ናይቲ ኣብ መንጎ ክልተ ኣሕዋትን ኣዕሩኽን ህዝብታት ዘሎ ምትእስሳር ዘጉልሕ እዩ።



ናብ ዘላቕን ስትራተጂያውን ሽርክነት

ዝምድናታት ሱዳንን ኤርትራን፡ ብታሪኻዊ ውርሻኡ፡ ፖለቲካዊ እምነቱ፡ ከምኡ’ውን ብጸጥታውን ቁጠባውን ተማላላእነቱ ተሰንዩ፡ ካብቲ ልምዳዊ ናይ ምትሕግጋዝ ኩነት፡ ናብ ኩሉ መዳያዊ ስትራቲጂያዊ ምሕዝነት ንምስግጋር ዘኽእሎ ድልዱል መሰረት ሒዙ ይርከብ። ነዚ ንምዕዋት፡ ኣብቲ ብመሪሕነት ክልቲአን ሃገራት ዝንጸባረቕ ዘሎ ጽኑዕ ፖለቲካዊ ድልየት ዝሰረተ፡ ትካላዊ ዘተ ብምክያድ፡ ናይ ምትሕግጋዝ ዓውድታት ምስፋሕ የድሊ። ኣብዚ ሕጂ ዘሎ ዞባውን ኣህጉራውን ብድሆታት፡ ኣብ መንጎ ሱዳንን ኤርትራን ዘሎ ዝምድና፡ ሰናይ ጉርብትናን ሓባራዊ ምክብባርን፡ ካብ ክልቲአን ሃገራት ሓሊፉ ብደረጃ መላእ ቀርኒ ኣፍሪቃ ከመይ ገይርካ ንጹህን ሓቀኛን ርግኣት ምፍጣር ከም ዝከኣል ህያው ግብራዊ ኣብነት እዩ።

መደምደምታ

ዝምድናታት ሱዳንን ኤርትራን፡ ብታሪኻዊ ድሕረ ባይታኡን ዳይናሚክነቱን፡ ካብቲ ልሙድ ክልተኣዊ ርክባት፡ ናብ ጂኦፖለቲካዊ ሽርክነት ምስ መዋቕራዊ መዳያቱ ተሰጋጊሩ ይርከብ። እዚ ምሕዝነት’ዚ፡ ብጂኦፖለቲካዊ ረቛሒታትን፡ በቲ ኣብ ቀርኒ ኣፍሪቃን ቀይሕ ባሕርን ዘሎ ተለዋዋጢ ዞባዊ ጸጥታዊ ሃዋህውን ዝተቐረጸ እዩ። ኣብ ምኽባር ሃገራዊ ልኡላውነት፡ ምንጻግ ግዳማዊ ሕንከራ፡ ምምካት ዘይቀጥታዊ ምትእትታዋት ብዝምልከት ዘሎ ስምረት ናይ ኣረኣእያታት ከኣ፡ ነዚ ዝምድና’ዚ ሓደ ካብ ኣዕኑድ ሓለውቲ ሚዛን ዞባና ገይሩ ኣደልዲሉዎ ኣሎ። እዚ ምሕዝነት’ዚ ብተወሳኺ፡ ጸጋታት ሱዳንን ስትራተጅያዊ ባሕራዊ ቦታ ኤርትራን ብምውህሃድ፡ ብሰፊሕን ተመላላእን ኣቀራርባ፡ ልምዓትን ቁጠባዊ ናጽነትን ንምድልዳል በሪ ዝኸፍት እዩ።

ኣብ መንጎ ሱዳንን ኤርትራን ዘሎ ምሕዝነት፡ ነቲ ህልው ዞባዊ ናይ ርግኣት ኩነታት ዳግም ኣብ ምቕራጽ፡ ፍታሕ ናይ ቅልውላዋት ካብ ውሽጢ’ዚ ዞባ ከም ዝመጽእ ብምግባር፡ ንዞባዊ ርግኣትን ረብሓ ህዝብታት ናይ’ዚ ዞባን ናብ ዘገልግል ስትራተጂያዊ ጸጋ ዘሰጋግር እምነ-ኩርናዕ እዩ።

[Temt]

ስልብ ባሪያ በጌታው ቁላ ይኮራል !!! ባባባባባባ ዉውዉውዉዉው አረብ ፈጥሮሻል አረብ ያዝሻል!!!!

እንታይ'ዩ 'ዝ ኣድጊ ዝብል ዘሎ፧

[Zmeselo]

Permanent Mission of Eritrea to the UN in Genève @EritreaUNGeneva Mr. Habtom Zerai, Chargé d'Affaires of the Embassy and Permanent Mission of Eritrea to the United Nations in Geneva, met today with Mr. Abdoul Aziz Thioye, Deputy Director of the Global Operations Division at the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).

The discussion focused on cooperation between Eritrea and the OHCHR, including recent visits conducted by the office. Both sides agreed to further strengthen their coordination and collaboration on the basis of mutual understanding and respect.



The meeting was also attended by Mr. Anganile Mwenifumbo, Human Rights Officer and OHCHR Desk Officer for Eritrea, and Ms. Nadja Micael, Human Rights Officer at the Permanent Mission of Eritrea.

[Zmeselo]

ስልብ ባሪያ በጌታው ቁላ ይኮራል !!! ባባባባባባ ዉውዉውዉዉው አረብ ፈጥሮሻል አረብ ያዝሻል!!!!

እንታይ'ዩ 'ዝ ኣድጊ ዝብል ዘሎ፧

ነገራት ጸንኪራ፡ ተህተፍትፎ ኣላ።

[Fiyameta]

The same UAE guy.... the current ruler of Ethiopia.

[Zmeselo]