1. Elite alignment is concentrated in the northeast
Political support for Abiy has come mainly from northeastern Gurage elites—not Western Gurage communities who have often:
been more oppositional or skeptical
faced heavier security pressure
remained underrepresented in federal structures
Lumping Western Gurage into this narrative obscures who actually benefits from federal alignment.
2. Geographic proximity and political access
Northeastern Gurage areas:
are closer to Addis Ababa
are more integrated into federal bureaucratic, security, and business networks
have longer-standing ties to central state power
This proximity makes elite co-optation easier and more rewarding.
3. Selective empowerment of compliant elites
Abiy’s government has favored elites who are administratively useful and politically compliant, particularly from Sodo and Kistane:
appointments and party leadership roles
protection from repression
control over local administrations
Meanwhile, grassroots organizers across Gurage—especially in Western zones have seen mobilization discouraged or criminalized.
4. Fragmentation as a governing strategy
By empowering elites in northeastern Gurage zones:
broader Gurage unity is weakened
pan-Gurage political bargaining loses force
marginalization is spread unevenly, reducing collective backlash
Western Gurage exclusion is not accidental; it is structurally produced.
5. Grassroots marginalization cuts across all zones
Even in Sodo and Kistane, ordinary people do not benefit proportionally from elite alignment.
The divide remains:
elite access vs. popular exclusion, not regional loyalty.